Winnipesaukee Forum - Ice-Out Watch 2006

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JK47	03-13-2006 11:29 AM

Are my eyes decieving me, or is this all water in the foreground? :eek:

Orion

03-13-2006 11:42 AM

all water

That's all water....It was almost half water most of the season.....water to the left and ice to the right, but now all water. Get them boats ready!

Zee	03-13-2006 11:52 AM

Bob Houses on 19 Mile Bay

I was amazed to see five bob houses still on 19 Mile Bay last evening. All bob houses are off Winter Harbor, Wolfeboro Bay and 20 Mile Bay. There was still one trailer out on Center Harbor on Saturday evening. It looked like one wheel was sunk down in the ice. The ice is turning dark everywhere, I sure hope they get them off in the next couple of days. Wolfeboro Bay has a lot of open water. I think we are still two weeks away from ice out but that is still real early. Time enough to wax up the boat.

Resident 2B

03-13-2006 12:34 PM

10 day forecast and possible impacts

It looks like it will be turning cooler in a few days, but the wind will be up and stay up for about a week. Although it will be cold at night, the wind should keep working on the ice, so it is looking like a early April ice out to me.

Time will tell, but all the signs I know are pointing to that time frame. Ice out usually happens two to three weeks after the water gets to 36 degrees and that happened a few days ago. If you look at the Silver Sand's web site and go backwards from past ice-out dates to what the ice looks like today, you also get this time frame.

One concern I have is with even more ice damage to docks. There was a lot of open water and area where the ice got think. If the wind breaks the ice up into large chunks which is likely and these large chunks get driven by the wind across the open water onto shore, there will be a lot of momentium when these "mini-icebergs" strike land and docks. I hopeI am wrong on this, but it is looking more possible every day.

R2B

RI Swamp Yankee

03-13-2006 01:04 PM

Wolfeboro Town Docks pix

Quote:

Originally Posted by FLboater

Can anyone get a picture of the Wolfeboro town docks ice conditions? I miss the WolfeCam.

Here is one I took Feb 22, there wasn't much ice then, I expect less now.
Wolfeboro Town Docks

JK47	03-13-2006 02:25 PM

Does anyone know what the earliest ice out ever recorded is? It will be interesting to see if this year is competitive for the title...

Island Girl

03-13-2006 02:30 PM

March 28, 1921

Here is the list http://www.winnipesaukee.com/iceout.htm

JK47	03-13-2006 02:36 PM

Thanks, IG. It looks like March 28 is the date to beat. That's only two weeks away...

ghfromaltonbay

03-13-2006 04:41 PM

Lily Pond Ice-out

Usually they say that ice out occurs a week after the ice disappears from Lily Pond. Has anyone been by there lately?

upthesaukee

03-13-2006 04:50 PM

Lily Pond

Went by there yesterday. No activity on the pond, still ice covered, but not looking all that safe, which is probably why no one was on the ice...duhhhhhh David!!!!

DBA	03-13-2006 04:57 PM

So sorry to say

You are right on Resident 2B! We have left Rattlesnake Island as of about noon today (in the pouring rain) rather than stay and experience the winds that are predicted. I am also expecting some dock damage unless the winds just break the ice completely. :D

When we came across in the airboat today, the ice was firm enough to hold us most of the way. The western end of Rattlesnake was icebergs and open water. The rest of the trip was firm ice. It cracked under the weight, but it held. The rain will help and the winds will chew it up.:laugh:

So sorry to say there will be no more daily picture postings from Rattlesnake. We expect there to be water by the time we will be returning (2 weeks).

Thanks for all the wonderful comments and we'll see you at the Forum Fest!
DBA

Resident 2B

03-13-2006 05:22 PM

DBA,

Thanks for the great photos and good luck with your dock. Hopefully the wind will break it into small pieces.

I just do not have a good feeling about this.

R2B

Lakegeezer

03-13-2006 06:43 PM

Just one more freeze pleeze

My back yard, where the boat is kept, is a soup bowl of mud on top of a frozen tundra. Here it is, looking like its time to pull the boat out of the back yard and get it ready to splash. But I can't, yet. To do so now would dig tire tracks that would never go away all summer. I'm hoping for one more freeze later this week, and the forecast is with me. Then I'll yank the boat out to the driveway, early some morning while the ground is still frozen. Not only will I get the boat ready for the early ice-out salmon fishing, but there is a side benefit. With the boat out from under its winter tarp, its bound to snow at least once in March or maybe on April fools day. Maybe one more ski day??

Skip	03-14-2006 06:57 AM

Ice out story in today's Union Leader!!!!

Another story on the ice-out with a gracious mention once again of the now famous Winnipesaukee.com! :)

When will the ice be out????

Skip

Steveo

03-14-2006 07:58 AM

How did they know ice out in 1888

OK, I will admit this may be a weird (if not irrelevant) question but how did they know when “Ice Out” was in 1888 or even 1921 (earliest ice out)? The official ice out criteria is when the Mount can navigate all of its ports. What was the criterion in 1888? They certainly didn’t have the good work of Emerson Aviation, let alone planes. No cars, no phones to coordinate sightings at each port. Did they telegraph each other? Was there some guy going around the lake on a horse everyday (?!?). Probably take a few days just to make it around the lake.

I told you it was a weird question; I was just wondering. :rolleye2: :confused:

Diamond Isle

03-14-2006 09:55 AM

Thanks DBA

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBA

So sorry to say there will be no more daily picture postings from Rattlesnake. We expect there to be water by the time we will be returning (2 weeks).

Thanks for all the wonderful comments and we'll see you at the Forum Fest!
DBA

I just wanted to say thanks for the great pictures around Diamond, sure beats the 30 mile drive over there! Looks like it's time to cut the shrinkwrap and get the boat ready!

MAXUM

03-14-2006 11:04 AM

Shoot last weekend I pulled mine out of the garage and fired her up! Man I love that sound!

Resident 2B

03-14-2006 11:11 AM

Space Images?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steveo

I think back then they just used the NASA Images from Space found on the web. They kept things simple back in the old days.:rolleye2: :)

On a bit more serious side, I had the same question.

upthesaukee

03-14-2006 03:31 PM

03-14-06 Wolfeboro Ice from Cate park

Quote:

Originally Posted by FLboater

Can anyone get a picture of the Wolfeboro town docks ice conditions? I miss the WolfeCam.

Here you go!!!! Not often I get over that way with a camera...today was one of those days, and the weather cleared off before I got there (rained this morning).

Enjoy!!

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...ate_Park_1.jpg

Ice is not that far out from the docks. You might get a better look in the gallery:

Here's that link: http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...php?photo=9026

Weirs guy

03-14-2006 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghfromaltonbay

Usually they say that ice out occurs a week after the ice disappears from Lily Pond. Has anyone been by there lately?

I thought the airports new runway lights screwed that up?

GWC...

03-14-2006 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

The last few years the magic water temp seems to be about 38 degrees. It's rising fast and the weather over the next few days won't slow it down any.

It would seem that the Lake is approaching the magic number:

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/tempcal/index.cgi

Rattlesnake Gal

03-15-2006 08:52 AM

Recap From 05 - Water Temps Preceding Ice-out

For those who were not present for last year’s ice-out fun, here is a recap of my water temperature and ice-out correlation:
(With last year's numbers added.)

RG's 4/8/05 post

Here are the water temps preceding and at the time of ice-out.
Not sure of they have any value to anyone, but it kept me busy for a few minutes. :laugh:

April 20th 2005 – 41 degrees two days before ice-out. (No recorded temps on 19th – 23rd. )

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 10th – 11 days to ice-out.
April 20th 2004 - 42 degrees at ice-out.

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 10th – 11 days to ice-out.
April 25th 2003 - 40 degrees at ice-out.

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 19th – 7 days to ice-out.
April 5th 2002 - 41 degrees the day after ice-out.

Temperature hit 38 degrees (Doesn’t show 39) on March 28th – 8 days to ice-out.
May 2nd 2001 - 45 degrees at ice-out.

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 24th – 9 days to ice-out.
No water temperatures for the preceding years.

http://webarchive.unionleader.com/ar...?article=53381 (April 15, 2005 article)

Island Girl

03-15-2006 09:49 AM

That's what I thought!

Thanks RG for the correlation.. I had about 41 degrees in my mind based on past years... Now if only we knew what the temp was in 1921 at ice-out!

Quilt Lady

03-15-2006 10:16 AM

I know . . .

Quote:

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Now if only we knew what the temp was in 1921 at ice-out!

How about we go with "Dr. Who" (Sci-fi Channel Fri.@ 9PM) in his time machine (Tardis) and take our own readings! The only problem is that he never ends up where he thinks he's going! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Ultimate Road Trip!!!

Mr. V

03-15-2006 07:17 PM

I'm curious as to whether there is a record of the Lake having had "ice out" declared, only to be followed by a deep freeze resulting in a second "ice in?"

Mee-n-Mac

03-16-2006 12:20 AM

Dr Who ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quilt Lady

I don't think we can use 1921 as an indicator for ice-out purposes. It's been said that there was some Dalek plot to heat up the Earth that year. :D Can't say I've followed the good Dr much since Tom Baker (#4) left. Hopefully this incarnation is a good one :) Since BSG is on hiatus, I'm thinking this will be the new Friday night taping.

FWIW : http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php...&o=0&fpart=all

http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php...b=5&o=0&fpart=

ps - maybe Misty Blue will quiz us on what a tardis is ? ;)

Merrymeeting

03-16-2006 08:26 AM

There is a very small retention pond near my house that I always use as my personal barometer for lake ice-out. It is usually about 2 weeks ahead of the lakes.

I was out of town for a few days. When I left on Sunday, it was still mostly ice with melting on the edges. When I returned yesterday, it was completely ice-free and the ducks who return to it for a brief time each Spring were swimming around. This morning it was skimmed over with a thin layer of ice once again.

With the cold weather of the next few days, I'm sticking with my early April forecast. ;)

Bizer

03-16-2006 10:37 AM

Statistics

I was looking at Don's Ice-out page. For those of us that like statistics:

Historicly, for the past 119 years, the average ice-out date has been April 20th with a standard deviation of 9 days.

For 285 guesses for the 2006 ice-out contest:

The average date was April 9th
The standard deviation was 10 days
Nobody guessed May even though ice-out has occasionally occurred in May.
28 people (10%) guessed that the 2006 ice-out would occur before March 28th, the earliest ice-out on record.

mcdude

03-16-2006 06:22 PM

1 Attachment(s)

Nice Monet-like shot of sunset over the ice from Snake-Eyes tonight...

DRH	03-17-2006 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diamond Isle

DBA, Can you see if the ice looks safe from the Gilford side to get onto Diamond - or do I wait a week and take a boat?? Thanks for the pics showing Diamond - that's the side we are on!

As of this morning the entire area between Ames Farm and Diamond Island is open water. In fact, the open water area goes almost all the way to Rattlesnake. We've had gusty winds for four consecutive days now and the open water area by Diamond had white caps this morning.

Steveo

03-17-2006 09:41 AM

Check out WeirsCam

If you want to see sonmething really cool check out the Weirs cam and watch it clear in front of your eyes

Rattlesnake Gal

03-17-2006 09:48 AM

Webcams

:idea: Can you add sound to a webcam? :laugh:

Steveo

03-17-2006 09:57 AM

That would be cool too. Weirscam has the live video feed now so you can actually see it move. I am watching the Abekee live feed also to see it that big ice flow will head there next.

wildwoodfam

03-17-2006 02:50 PM

How about some arial shots?

Anyone know when they'll start fly overs to do the real checks? Would be great to start seeing the progression of the lake from above. Oh and a Happy St Patrick's Day to ya!:cheers:

DRH	03-17-2006 05:06 PM

We drove past Lily Pond this afternoon and it now has some areas of open water.

Also, the open water area between Belknap Point and Ellacoya State Park is huge now.

Cal	03-17-2006 05:13 PM

I just saw the Weirs cam and all the ice is GONE....WOW that was quick:eek:

Resident 2B

03-17-2006 05:35 PM

Ice-Berg Warning

I was up at the lake last night and earlier today. Last night, the ice was making some deep groans so I knew something was up.

Early this morning, you could see the ice that was in front of the Weirs breaking away from the ice that covers Meredith Bay as the wind was blowing fairly strongly from the west-northwest. Once seperation was complete, the ice really started to move towards Governor's Island. Then, the wind shifted more northerly and it directed the ice towards the shore across from the Weirs. When I left, it had stopped moving, or slowed down a lot, due to engaging the breakwaters protecting the docks in that area.

The size of this is huge! It is at least a ten acres in area perhaps larger. If it wasn't for the stone breakwaters, the docks would not have a chance. If the wind shifts more westerly as it is forecasted to do, and this thing gets away from the shore and gets moving again, watch out!

It is amazing the tempature at the Weirs was in the mid 20s as this was happening. Many will think the ice melted. In this case, it is still ice, it just moved.

R2B

Paugus Bay Resident

03-17-2006 07:48 PM

I was driving down Cherry Valley this afternoon and was surprised by the amount of open water (over the last week). I'm sure the nasty, irritating, not welcome winds have something to do with it. I'll take some pictures from that vantage next week.

Good N' You?

03-18-2006 09:50 PM

Nooobie

Hello Everyone,
I am new here....Sort of! I have been reading and following along, but have had nothing really to say. So I thought I would "Break the Ice" no pun intended, and say Hello! I do wish all the ice was broken though. I don't go a day without thinking about boating season now. I love it on the lake! Especially early season!!! It can be sooo nice and calm!
I have been coming here (Paugus) for the last 7 years and my wife has been for the last 20 years. She was 10. I grew up on a lake and was on it every day of the summer...Sometimes in the rain and lightning :eek: :eek: So I thoroughly enjoy this wonderful lake. We have a new 7 month old who we can't wait to bring out on the boat and show him all this lake has to offer!
Sorry to ramble, but I thought I would give a little back ground too! :cheers: :cheers:

Calm seas ahead!
Good N' You?

Rinkerfam

03-18-2006 11:46 PM

Let me be the first to welcome you to the forum. I hope that you, your wife and your little one have a wonderful season in '06. My oldest was 4 months when he took his first ride on the big lake, and my little guy was 7 months. I suspect that once you get out on the water, we will be hearing from you more and more:)

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