New Submarines??
 

I heard somewhere, (maybe WMUR) that a couple of trucks went through the ice in Alton earlier this week. Any info on that? The ice wasn't thick enough for them I guess.

The Breeze
Wave 'Cuz I'll be Wavin' Back:)

Didn't go through the ice...they sank down in the slushy snow on top of ice and had to be pulled off ice. boat ramp access in Alton is now closed off.

Hey UP,
At what point will you be taking your semi-daily pictures of ice out in Alton Bay?

BT

I drive through Manchester daily, and drive by Stevens Pond, which is right next to/under I-93. In a typical season, that pond is ice free ~3 weeks before ice out on Lake Winni. As of this AM, it still has a decent amount of ice on it, but it is receding, and it looks real thin right on the edge closest to the highway. I would guess that it will be ice free around Monday. Ice out on track for the last week of April IMO.

BTW, my ice out guess is very early May. ;)

My yearly request for updates on Mirror Lake
 

Hey all,

I think I ask this every year. Planning to open camp the week of April 22. Need to know if I bring the boat or not.

Can someone provide regular updates on Mirror Lake?

Thanks.
Chris

dare I say it?
 

Looks like the water temp is about 2 weeks behind last year. Are we looking at a May Ice Out?!!!!!!!!:eek::eek:

Each day I drive by the lake, Wolfeboro area, as a way to get rid of the winter blues. I must say that each day the ice seems to pull away from land more and more. In addition, the color of the ice is a blueish color. Wolfeboro Bay is open more than last year, so hopefully this means the ice is weakening. We'll see! I'm thinking April 26th!

Thats it, I'm buying an icebreaker!

Aerial view of Lake Winni on Sunday 3/30/2008
 

Great shot Ladyslipper.

That would be a great scene if this was December 30th, but March 30th? Will ice out ever come?

Alton Bay, right?
 

This shot is from Alton Bay, looking northish, right? Sure looks like Echo Point dead center.

nj2nh

Yes, the nose of the airplane is looking up Alton Bay
 

You can see a hint of the propeller spinning.
In the center of the pic is Rattlesnake Island.:)

We made our first visit of 08 to the lake today.

The bad news,

• local fisherman told me he was using an ice auger this week and still seeing close to 2' of ice in many areas
• While we were opimistic on the drive as the snow didn't seem as bad as I expected in many areas, around the lake it is at least 2' and more in many areas

The good news,

• We're supposed to see several sunny days in the 60's this week!
• I took a long walk and you could hear lots of water running everywhere. It is melting fast
• The water temp bumped up for awhile this week
• The snow and ice are porous and break easily when stepped on
• At least the melt is slow and controlled. If all this had melted at once, we'd be complaining about mass flooding

Spring's coming, it's just taking it's time.

Another view of Rattlesnake Island 03/30/2008
 

Hopefully this attaches correctly.:confused:

Maybe you all could start throwing rocks at the ice or something to break it up? How about using blow dryers and really, really long extention cords? Perhaps you could start taking water out of the lake, heating on the stove and pouring it back in?

Ice Out is supposed to be April 15th, ya know! Well, that's the date I picked anyway.

nj2nh

Package weather
 

How about if I package some of my weather here in FL and ship it to Winni. Wait a minute SKybus just went out of business. Newington to FL was a good flight at a cheap price.

Water Temp is the Key
 

Seems to me the main culpret in the deicification of the Lake is the temperature of the water. The warmer water eats at the ice from below. Wind plays a part as the ice gets thin enough to break up and be more actively mixed with the water (like stirring a drink). 40 degrees seems to be the key water temperature - very shortly after the water temp gets to 40 ice is out. Here is the history since 2002.

Year Ice Out Temp Reached 40 deg
2002 4/4 4/3
2003 4/25 4/20
2004 4/20 4/14
2005 4/20 4/17
2006 4/3 4/1
2007 4/23 4/23

Well I was off by a day, but ice out on Stevens Pond in Manchester is hereby declared by yours truly, today, April 8th. Therefore, ice out on Lake Winni is on schedule for April 29th. It is 3 days before my guess, but I am still in the game.

Lots of ice by air
 

Hey Folks,

My Dad was out flying today and sent me some pictures. He asked I share them with you all to show just how much ice is out there! I added them to the photopost/spring section. I was surprised, it looks more like February!

NOt ice out yet ,,,,but not too long
 

coming from Meredith today ,towards the weirs ,at the top of the hill above colorshed ,you can see whatappears to be open water from Eagle island all the way over to spindle point. I am sure its not open water [quite a distance and I was traveling 40-45 miles an hour = - but I believe it is VERY gray ice ,just looking for a reason to sink,,,, when you exit the channel from Paugus bay out onto the "lake " the ice is gone all the way over to all of the docks at the weirs ...all open water ,maybe a few hundred feet from shore ..Paugus is open from channel marine out to a bit past 4 seasons condo's ,,,the ice at the merdith docks are not safe for ducks to walk on ...I stick with my guess ,,,what was it? April 23rd around 2:30 p.m. I really don't remember
Mike

Snowmobiles
 

Yesterday I saw a snowmobile traverse the lake from around Center Harbor down to Five-Mile Island. I can't remember the last time I saw snowmobiles on the ice in April. I saw another one this morning, towing something.

Last year at this time, there was significantly more open water. Most of the ice went out forcefully during the 60+ mph winds of the April 16 NorEaster.

This weekend's weather will likely have an impact, as we are expecting heavy rain. Runoff flowing into the lake rapidly will erode the shoreline ice more than it already is. The pounding rain on top of the ice will eat away at it.

At Black Cat WeatherCam the water temp at 10 feet has been holding steady at 35 for the last couple weeks, while the surface has been fluctuating. It's been reaching 35 in the daytime but the cold nights have been bringing it back to 33 and the surface of open water has been re-freezing. Last night was the first night I saw the surface temp stay above 33 all night... it was 34 this morning, and 10-foot depth is still 35.

My View
 

Hate to disappoint y'all, but flying over the lake today, we saw VERY little open water anywhere.

Three weeks?
 

There are some rocks near us, where the water opens up about three weeks before ice-out. They opened today. :(

Sounds good to me. ;)

Do not be fooled by the current condition. The Lake Winni Gods know what a tough winter we had. As such, the Gods will shine down on us and open up the lake before May 1st.

For the first time since last fall, the water temp at the WeatherCam has shifted to summer pattern: Warmer water on top, colder water underneath (all winter long it's the opposite.)

Today the surface temp has risen to 36 while underneath remains at 35 (where it's been for the last several days despite fluctuations on the surface.)

Things are shifting quickly today.

• Area beside Silver Sands doc is now open water
• Since this morning, a large area on Ossipee Lake cam has opened up
• Alton Bay is opening fast
• During the day, ice in the sandbar area on Winnisquam has disappeared

What a difference a warm day makes!

Judging by the Silver Sands page from last year comparing conditions to conditions, todays picture looks like it did on April 5th of 2007, basically 5 days behind.

Checking out the various webcams it certainly is obvious that things are starting to move! :D Silver Sands is open to the end of the dock, Smith Cove is opening up nicely.

The huge piece that broke off several days ago in front of the Black Cat Island cam seems to have moved completely out of view to the left (it had been shifting only slightly back and forth until today), and the Black Cat Weather Cam shows significant opening over the past few days.

The Fairhaven Cam shows their cove rapidly melting, and lastly the Castle cam is definately showing ice that looks considerably more gray than in previous days.

At long last it's melting! :D

We got our two week indicator today (Thursday the 10th). Local lake went ice free. Has been a reliable 2 week predictor for several years. We will see how it holds up this year.

It looks like the water on one side of Alton Bay and the water by public docks might meet quite soon according to the webcam. Ditton for the shoals and the shore on the Black Cat cam. I check 'em every day - sometimes twice!

nj2nh

Yesterday's 100% of possible sun combined with 57 degree max (warmest since Oct. 31) caused a lot of melting yesterday.

Melting has slowed down to a crawl today, with temp remaining in the low 40s. Also, we've lost the sun behind the clouds from the approaching storm.

The weekend's expected rain will have an eroding effect on the ice, further opening holes and wearing down the upside of the ice. This will likely be the only ice-thinning factor for a few days, until we get back to the upper 50s/60s later next week.

Comparison - This year to last year
 

Here are two pictures from the WeatherCam. The first is from April 6 last year, and the second is from today (April 14.)

It does appear we are behind last year's iceout schedule. Last year the ice would've stayed a lot longer if it hadn't gotten busted up forecfully by the April 16 Nor'Easter. The 60+ mph winds broke it up into bergs which were more easily melted by the 80-degree weather we had a week later.

I think based on this, we'll have iceout 4-7 days later than last year's iceout would have been, if the storm hadn't hit... unless a storm hits us again this year... but I don't see that happening in the next several days.

So, Wolf Man - you're talking mid May?!

Ice Out is Coming!
 

As of today Angle Pond in Sandown/Hampstead and Sunset Lake (aka Wash Pond) in Hampstead are free of ice. This happened in the last few days so it is coming to Winni soon. With the predicted temps over the next few days it should help get the lake opening up. Alton Bay is open to the band stand and Wolfeboro on the Club Cam is showing signs of opening too.

ice report
 

Winter Harbor is still locked up tighter than a bull's ass during fly season.
I did catch a nice salmon Saturday off a dock that had a bubbler going all winter. The ice was out about 75' around the dock. Hook-jawed male, 19", 2lbs-7oz. Eeee-haw.

I am relatively new at this having only 10 years local observation, prior years from a distance. Today the bandstand in Alton Bay is just clearing of ice and the ice is beginning to have that unlasting look about it.
With warm weather this week, I would say with help from the wind, maybe in 10 days or the 24th. 15 days at the outside. Anyway, our standing order with Jeff Fay is to have the boat in the water and ready to go at ice out. So I'll make my usual stop to check with him early next week and he will say, when he sees me coming, don't worry, the boat will be ready. Not that I am ever in a hurry to make the 1st trip to the island.

It's hard to say when last year's ice would've gone out, had it not been for the April 16 storm. I'm guessing it probably would've been early May before it could've been official. It always gets hung up on that official bit for a couple days, it seems. It gets to the point where most of us can't see any ice, but Flyguy and satellite imagery show clearly that the MOUNT's path is blocked somewhere.

Also, this year, the ice remained thicker than it looked pretty late. It was only a week ago we had snowmobiles going from Center Harbor down to Five-Mile and Bear. I was about to say "That ice is looking pretty weak now" until I heard the engines approaching and said to myself, "You gotta be kidding! Snowmobiles?"

So, it's still probably thicker than it looks, a notion supported by today's windy weather failing to open Black Cat Shoals more than it did. The wave action very gradually wore away at the edge of the ice, seemingly not much faster than the rate at which flowing water deepens the Grand Canyon.

If the ice were truly thin enough to go in the next week or so, I'd expect wind action like today's to make more exciting headway against the edge of the ice.

It will be interesting to see what happens later this week. As I mentioned earlier in the Weather Thread, Thursday-Friday are shaping up to be in the 70s. With each passing day I have become increasingly convinced that we could see our first 80-degree day at the end of this week. With each new update of the forecast, the forecast highs for Thurs-Fri get warmer. Our first 80-degree day of any spring season usually starts off as a much cooler forecast and gradually the predictions get warmer as the day approaches. That is how Thursday-Friday have been evolving since Saturday. Meteorologists aren't ready to cry "SUMMER-LIKE!" until they know they won't be wrong.

I'm only mentioning it as a chance and not as a definite. Keep watching the forecast for the end of this week to see if it continues to trend warmer with each update.

I just saw a small outboat on the open water in Alton Bay on the webcam! Let me tell you, that was a very exciting thing to see. :D

Of course, I could still see ice in the distance, but the pavilion is definitely floating free.

Sadly, I have lost the ice out contest. Today was my day. Stupid date to pick.

nj2nh

any day now!
 

The good news is that looking at the webcams is that very shortly we should be able to launch the alumacraft and make it out to the island by weaving through the cracks in the ice and where it's melted close to shore... if history repeats, the first island visit can usually be done a week or ten days before "official iceout", with a big factor being if we get a big wind that starts moving the bergs around and breaking them up against the shore...

it's been a long winter, i can't wait!!

PIG