Cruisin' Round the Ice-Out info
 

Anxiously I await ice out.... first a trip to Snake Eyes to take a look at the broads (go ahead, you can click on a Google Ad), then clicking on the link to the ice out page I view all the Winni Web Cams... ( iclick on their google ads from time to time!)... then at the top of the ice out page, I click on DRH's ice out page to see the day to day differences in the ice out progress... and finally to The Silver Sands Ice out page to see the day to day progress from their location.... this is my daily (well... probably more frequently) routine.... until the ice is out!!! The lake temp went up another degree... 3 more to go!!!

Start your engines!!!
IG

Mirror Lake or 19 Mile Bay
 

How are Mirror Lake and 19 Mile Bay looking?

Latest high res satellite photo suggests we're still socked in for a while... I can't see any large scale openings anywhere. Few cracks showing up on Winnisquam.

Well
 

As Silly as it sounds, I am hoping for large gusts of winds for the rest of the day today and thursady just into Friday morning, to break this ice up fast. Come on mother nature, you battered us all winter and we are Still here, it is time for you to lend us a hand!:argue:

The ice is changing fast. Check out DRH's webpage and see the difference 7 hours made yesterday. ;)

Even the satellite imagery above shows the ice with a decidedly gray tone, as opposed to the bright white of a week ago. :D

There's no denying that each day as I drive around the Gilford-to-Alton Bay slice of the lake, the tone of the ice is deepening, and the cracks are widening. The ice is moving further away from the shore each day as well.

Now, since we haven't got any rain in the forecast, and no significant wind either, I suggest that we call each marina on the lake and ask that they place one boat in the water and give it a good test-drive for maneuverability: run it in circles, at fast speed, thereby creating some waves to start breaking it up! :D

Meanwhile, we should all click on the Amazon link at the top right of the ice-out page, and learn all about the exciting new technology available there. ;) If that doesn't excite you, go to the left hand side and check out the world of exciting vacations. :)

Nice picture
 

Where did you find that picture? How often is it updated?

the cold nights keep setting things back
 

For a second morning in a row the open water froze over during the night, and it wasn't just a skim... it was still frozen at 10 a.m., several hours after sunrise. This also adds some thicknes (though probably not much) to the existing ice, just like it does in the cold of winter.

I think we have one more night of below-freezing temps. As I mentioned in another thread, these cold nights are a result of the nice weather we're having. Clear skies + calm winds + dry air allows radiational cooling after dark, where the heat of the day rises up into the cosmos like it does in the desert at night.

Even a partial overcast or 10 mph wind at night would help to keep more heat on the ground. Humidity would do the trick, too... all those microscopic water droplets in the air can heat up during the day and hold onto the heat a lot longer than the air by itself. But we don't have that... it's clear, calm, and dry. The dewpoint is 21 degrees, which represents the temperature the air could cool to, given a clear/calm night. The lower the dewpoint, the lower the amount of moisture in the air. Once the air cools to the point where it's saturated with moisture ("dew") then it can't go lower.

We either need dewpoints in the 50s+ (normal summer day) to help retain each day's heat in the water and air, or else we need zero-degree dewpoints (i.e. Cactus climate) so the ice just evaporates off the lake.

For tomorrow and Friday we should see a return to 24-hour ice melting as temps rise to the lower 70s during the day (I still wouldn't be surprised to see a handful of locations hit 80 on Friday.) There's still a lack of wind on the forecast maps. Our best chance for breezy conditions is Thursday night and Friday morning when a storm will pass well offshore of Martha's Vineyard and its fringes may give us some northeast winds. What we really need are NW or SE winds, blowing along the length of the lake where they can go the longest distance without getting slowed down by anything.

I just wanted to remind everyone that the official Ice-Out occurs only when the Mount can navigate between its ports. The lake can be almost entirely free of ice without Ice-Out being declared. This happened in 2001 when a stubborn flow of ice blocked the Mount from reaching Wolfeboro even though the rest of the lake was free of ice. Ice-Out in 2001 wasn't declared until May 2nd.

Ice-Out dates since 2000:

2000: 4/10
2001: 5/2
2002: 4/5
2003: 4/25
2004: 4/20
2005: 4/20
2006: 4/3
2007: 4/23
2008: ?

Ice-Out dates for the last 120 years are here.

You can find the images on the modis rapidfire site but they are not updated every day, and its tricky to find a clear image even when they are.

Another interesting aspect of that high res satellite shot (for you weather weenies) is the area of dark brown from Moultonboro through Tuftonboro. Seems like this area is the first to lose their snowpack in the region? Maybe someone up there can confirm this. But if so, I think it is a teltale sign of the shadowing influence the Ossipee Range can have on the area during winter noreasters; less snow falls on the lee side of the hills than the windward side, so naturally this area will be the first to get back to bare ground in the spring.

I looked at Rattlesnake cam this morning as I normally do, finally there is a break in the ice and visible water (only a little, but we need hope). The ice is looking darker and darker everyday, we can't wait.

We are taking the boat out in CT today (Long Island Sound), it will be 75 degrees.

The fun has begun
 

We saw that too...keep watching as the stream of water gets wider and wider... over the next day.. it is amazing to watch. I will be on the island this weekend.. hope to take some pictures as we watch the ice melt!! (only on this forum could I say that and have people understand and not think I had gone off the deep end)

IG :D

Watching the Ice Melt
 

It is time to watch the ice melt... stop working..and watch the webcams... If you crave watching the progress on Snake Eyes...here is the page with the last 10 images... they update every 10 minutes.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/snakeeyesall.htm


Enjoy
IG

I know what you mean, a few people have caught a glimpse of my monitor when I was daydreaming. They asked what the webcam was, and I told them it was snake eyes and then I proceeded to say, we are all watching the ice melt. They look perplexed and wander away thinking the stress of the day has finally snapped me.

Only we know that it is the other way around, watching the cam is a great way to change the focus of a stressful day.

How are you getting out to the island? I'm jealous!

island life
 

I am getting there by special friends with a special vehicle.

Enjoy watching the ice melt in person, and post pictures. I'm still jealous.

Here is a nice false color infrared image taken this morning which captures the thinning ice better than the visible shot. Clearly the area from Gilford down through Alton is close to breaking while the northern bays are still socked in. Wentworth and Squam are a long way from breaking, too.

Ice-out will be happening anytime now. Thanks to the concerted efforts of the Pine Island Residents Association, the Pine Island Ice Monster has been unleashed.

The Pine Island Ice Monster only makes an appearance during those years where ice-out threatens to extend well into the month of May.

As you can see, it has started eating away at the ice at the spot where it was released.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...=12675&cat=523

Thank you for pointing that out. I had forgotten about that, given today's weather!

The shadowing would have occurred when winds were from the northeast (as in a Nor'easter) and caused less snow on the opposite (southwest) side of the mountains.

Also aiding the quicker melt on that SW side is the fact that it faces the sun, and every aspect that faces the sun for a fair amount of time was the first to melt off, even when 2 feet remained in the shade.

On Black Cat we have mostly bare now, but there are still patches of snow in the shadows of thick trees and on north-facing aspects. We have snow left over from December, and there's only 2 weeks until May 1. This has been a most memorable winter.

Black Cat Shoals opened up a lot more today. Hindering the melt-off was the fact that the open water was skimmed over with ice again this morning and the fact that we haven't had much wind (just a light breeze) all day.

Tomorrow I'm a lot more confident that a couple of places around here will hit 80. The rest of us will all be in the 70s.

Holy Canoli! The ice has seen dramatic changes through the course of today! :D According to the Black Cat Island Weathercam, the temperature at 2 feet below the surface is flirting very seriously with 40 degrees - WOOOOO HOOOOO! All the cams are showing serious degrading of the surface today, and over on the Silver Sands Webpage the "Old Man of the Lake" is predicting ice-out will be on the 24th. He's very often right on target, so perhaps we ought to start :cheers: to him now. Let's hope he's right on target, or at least close.

Judging by the rapid changes we see today, I think it's entirely possible that over the next few days we're going to see the ice breaking up quickly into sheets, and floating around fast.

The Pine Island Monster is definately working hard - he's been in the same spot for quite a while today.;)

You've been dead-on for weeks, so I'm banking on your forecast for tomorrow. :D I started working out in the gardens today, and am delighted to find a LOT of green poking up. Even my Clematis have buds! Tomorrow I think I might have to plant some pansies, so I can add a bit of early color to the green. ;)

Wow, it's amazing how fast the water temperature drops when the sun goes down! When I posted around 7:20 this evening, the temperature at 2 feet below the surface was 39.9 according to the Black Cat Weather page. As of this moment, only three hours and 20 minutes later it is already at 38.1. However, a few moments ago it was reading 37.6, which means there is current moving colder water around, I would imagine. But nonetheless, the water cools off FAST at night. No wonder there's so much glazing-over of open water each morning.

Thankfully we'll be in the 70's again tomorrow, with lots of beautiful sunshine, and will hopefully see a lot more of what we saw happen today. ;)

OK, am I losing my mind? At 11:16 there was a post here from Resident2B. I clicked out to get a nugget of information for my reply to him, and when I clicked back in it was gone. Am I going bonkers?

Anyway, in case it reappears ...

I agree the ice must certainly be out where his temperature readings are being taken, as the entire area well beyond the shoals was clear as of mid-afternoon today.

Thanks for the explanation, too! :D

Sun and Ice
 

Pepper,

The sun is high in the sky now, as high as it is in mid-to-late August. It has quite the impact on water temp near the surface. I am assuming that the ice is gone where CLA is monitoring the water temp.

In addition, it takes a lot of BTU's to change the state of ice to water. It is called the 'heat of transformation'. That quickly takes the heat out of the water when the sun goes down. It is a lot like ice cubes in a glass of water. The good news is the ice continues to melt until the water gets to 32 degrees.

I have April 29th in the ice-out contest this year. I am concerned that my pick will be a few days too early this year. We could still have ice in May this year, but May is only two weeks away.

Great to see you back posting and good luck to you, Waldo and your partners with your new business venture!

R2B

See, now there's the post I read before, only with a later timestamp. Surely I'm either clairvoyant, or I've lost my mind, or something very squirrely just happened. :rolleye2:

Anyway, at least it's there again, even if it shows up behind my reply to it. very confusing!

And thanks for the well-wishes. Sorry we won't be in walking distance for you anymore. :(

Sorry Pepper
 

Pepper,

Sorry to be driving you nuts.

I just added a signature for the first time and I realized I mis-spelled a word in the signature. The only way I could fix it was to copy the message, delete it, fix the signature, then repost after the 5 minute time-out.

Very sorry that I messed things up here.

I will remain a loyal customer, but now it has to be by car.

R2B

What he said
 

Pepper, what R2B said is right-on. Surface temp is highly sensitive to the heat of the day, and I am monitoring where the ice is out. The 10-foot-deep probe is near the edge of the ice pack, and down. But even that has been warming up... just more slowly.

The surface water has been highly sensitive also to the very dry conditions lately. Water evaps more quickly from the lake surface which cools it, and after dark on a clear calm night, that means the surface water temp will drop rapidly (this is how it usually freezes in the first place.) When we start getting humid nights, you may notice the surface water stays the same or doesn't drop much overnight. Last summer when the humidity was thickest of the year, we had a night where the surface temp even rose a little overnight. That night the dewpoint was in the mid-70s and my air conditioner was practically wheezing and choking on it.

You also probably guessed right in saying there's a current. In the time lapse today (several times) I saw chunks of ice following a certain pattern through the open water, rather than going in a straight line with the wind, which told me a current has probably developed in the open water. If true, it's another sign that the lake is "trying to shed the ice."

Nature is so fun to watch.

Oh the humanity!!
:laugh::laugh:

I went and had a cup of coffee at the town docks in Wolfeboro. There are several large openings in the bay. I imagine that the openings will continue to grow over the next few days. I say most of the bay will open up by Monday of next week. I'm picking up my new boat next week and really hope that the ice is gone by April 26th, which was my guess. Island Girl, have fun watching the ice melt. I am envious!

I wholeheartedly concur. :D

R2B - thank heavens there was a reasonable explanation! I thought for sure there was a demon in my laptop. :eek:

Ice Monster!!
 

I looked at the Pine Island Ice Monster and the temp. was 80 degrees. Summer temperatures so lets take a dip! Last one in is rotten egg!

Ice-Out (almost)
 

This weather is unbelievable. I, recently a transplant from CT, was afraid this winter would never end.
My contact at Fay's told me yesterday that the ice is out of the yard, but still ice in the channel, as can be seen in the Varney point cam. I am heading up on saturday to clean out the new boat and maybe get her tied off to my slip. Won't be long now!
TG

Check out Alton cam
 

Check out the Alton cam. Ice out to Sandy Point with big ice flow coming toward the bandstand. Won't be long for at least for Alton Bay.

Please don't kill the messenger!
 

Ice out will occur on May 2 this year. You can take it to the bank! :eek:

Great minds think alike! ;) I posted that earlier in this thread on April 3. Dayum, I am good! :lol:

For a while some fishermen were caught by the ice flow between Sandy Point and the bandstand. At about 2:30 I saw a snowmobile going south between Rattlesnake and the mouth of the bay. Maybe he was wearing a wet suit and a PFD. Made me curious as to how he got on and off the ice, all the shore front that I can see has open water.

Lots more open water on the snake eyes cam.Great shot on the Pine Island cam.The thermometer shows 88 degrees with the lake still full of ice.

Stupid Question
 

I've not been there since February. This weekend was suppsoed to be a big family spring clean up weekend. Unfortunately, we've been told it's pointless due to snow cover. One of the gang is still heading up jsut to check on the place and he called to ask if I think he should bring his ice fishing gear. I said to be very cautious and use his head, but can anyone tellme if ANYONE is still venturing onto the ice and if so how much ice they are finding and is it solid ice or porous?

Thanks.

Ice Out
 

I once watched about 18 inches of pretty solid ice go out in 24 on Lake Ossipee about 4 Springs ago. Of course the weather was 80F and sunny and calm, but it can go very fast when it wants to. We could use a warm, windy rainstorm, but either way, I'd be surprised if it wasn't gone by April 24 or 25. And No, I would not ice fish now. Tell him to bring his rod and reel and fish for salmon or bass in the sections that have open water.

Take an aerial tour...
 

This morning I flew around looking for open water. Sorry to say how disappointed I was. Nothing on the north or northwest sides of the lake is open.

Here's a shot that includes all of Wolfeboro Bay. It looks encouraging! If you'd like to share my view of the lake this AM (from Meredith to Wolfeboro). go here.