I walked in the snow thru my front yard with flip flops on to my car,about an inch, didn't care.

I only put ONE of my snow shovels away. :D

I live next to a pond in Center Harbor and usually it is thawed a little before Winnipesaukee has ice out. It is still solidly iced in.

The 10 day forecast is for cooler than normal temps and quite a bit of cloudiness. There is some heavy rain forecast for over the weekend but the temps won't be above mid 40's so I don't think it will help that much. The long range forecast predicts we won't break into a weeks of 50/60 degree highs until the week after next.

I think progress will be slow.

The good news is if you check the water temps, the ice must be eroding from below. Trexler site https://www.trexlers.com/lake-winnipesaukee-live-feed, shows temps approaching and sometimes exceeding 38, which typically is the magic tipping point for ice-out melting.

The water temps posted on this site seem to be high, but overall increasing.

Hey 50-60 degrees may not seem terribly warm, but it's still 18-28 degrees north of freezing and that's not nothing!

With all the ice pull back from around the shore line once this stuff starts to move around it will actually begin to destroy itself and anything in it's path if the wind is kicking at a good clip.

I think we're less than a week out.

If you check the camera and time lapse for Flightcraft, you can see how much the ice melted away from the shore just today...:D

https://flightcraft.lakehost.net/index.php/webcam/

glendale today. it's gettin there...

anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

Yesterday....
 

Yesterday, the ice was maybe 20 yards beyond the bandstand. Ice along the shoreline is redeeming but not fast. I think it is unlikely, but you never know...

Better idea tonight, maybe.

Dave

ice out
 

So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

Ice out on Rust Pond
 

I live on Rust Pond and this morning there was still a good 3 inches of ice about 2 feet from the shore. The top is getting mushy which is a good sign. But other than that, the rest of the lake is solid.
Since Rust Pond is just a few 'blocks' from South Wolfeboro Bay, it's not looking great for ice out before the 23rd at best for us.

April 22nd @ 1:15 p.m.! :)

Water temp was 42 degrees Monday. Won’t be long.

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

Don't even think about stealing my thunder!

Today's update from Emerson Aviation:

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

S word
 

Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...:rolleye1:

Twenty mile bay is getting there..

Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak.

The Breeze
Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left.

Dan

Wind and Rain
 

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

And possibly a lot of the east facing docks.
Winds will be out of the E., then ENE.
For Paugus Bay that means South Down and Long Bay are in the cross hairs.

10 minutes and counting for my guess. Theres always next year.

So the ice will be off tomorrow as I have predicted but...

the weather will be inappropriate for flying so it will not be seen until a few days later.

:mad:

Going to be a little while. Today in the 20s, and should not be too windy tomorrow. The heavy rain will help, but it will take time to break it up.

Wind
 

Today's wind has definitely started things moving. The are now very large areas of cracked ice I can see between Welch and Ellacoya with water between them. The open water on the southern side of Welch has definitely extended as well!

Not sure I want to see the ice starting to go out with this crazy wind as I feel a lot of dock destruction would occur.

Dan

Has anyone seen the conditions at Silver Sands boat launch?

After yesterday's strong wind I had expected to see the ice broken up between Belknap Point and Welch. Not so:(

The open water south of Welch has expanded a small amount and there is a bit of open off the west side of Welch. Other than that, ice ice ice crap.

ice out
 

curious...when was the latest ice out ever recorded? Just got back from spending the winter in Florida. Now getting out of here heading to the BVI's taking folks sailing. Hope when we come back May 1 the ice will be gone. Not sure after yesterday and seeing all the ice out there.

Looks like May 12, 1888!

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout

My boat is supposed to hit the water May 12th, maybe I should reschedule:confused:

Maybe we can redirect the panels from a local solar farm to reflect sunlight onto the ice.

That would melt it!

Wait, that requires sunshine...

nevermind! :(

Next week
 

It'll start going fast after this weekend. The forecast shows many sunny days with temps in the more seasonal/higher range. Most importantly, the temps will stay above freezing at night for several nights in a row.

Anyone able to give an update on Paugus Bay?
wanted to put the lifts in this weekend

Edges on paugus Bay are way out, some spots 30-40 feet.
Still a bunch of ice in the middle but going fast!

As evidenced by the previous post...this morning at Paugus

I would think that you will be fine on May 12th (I am also getting my boat on the 12th-the day MVYC starts valet!). When you do hit the water , early in the year, you may want to keep a look-out for floating debris (ie logs, sticks and pieces of peoples docks etc.).