Demand will drop just as the extra unemployment payments stop so it will all stabilize after Labor Day.
The people that are trying to run out their extra unemployment monies until the end will be disappointed when all the hiring bonuses and prime openings dry up.
If you're looking for a job there's no better time than now to jump in.

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Really?
So you aren't going to build that screen room and deck?

That is the demand side...

It is also not a measure of how many people are actually unemployed, its a very filtered and corrected measure of a segment of the population that are not working but who were recently working.

We do such strange things with the raw data it begs the question of what are we really trying to accomplish. I truly dont know anymore.

Given all the the effort and expense that goes into publishing this date, I hope its useful to someone. I personally dont get much out of it and it doesnt provide me helpful information to gauge the condition of the economy or the success of the politicians in delivering on their campaign rhetoric.

I'm buiding it myself, cheap labor.Sent from my SM-G991U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

For NH, and more accurately the Laconia district, we are looking at those that are collecting benefits. People that are ''unemployed'' and not collecting benefits will not be effected by the cut in federal benefits... because they are not collecting any benefits.

Materials?
Labor is involved in a lot more than just building the structure.

We have to employ people in the yard to unload and put the product away, clerks to take the orders, and if you need delivery... then we need a truck driver.

The demand is not going down.
Sales and tickets (those are the invoices for the sales) are up roughly 40 percent this year over last... and that is with the shortage of material supply.

Two years ago, I could cover windows, doors, decking, siding, and roofing. We now have a five person team to cover the retail customers that walk-in... and are still at times coming up short on coverage for the customer service that we think should be the norm.

It will take a while before the New Money crowd now moving into the area settles down.
Once that happens, the demand on local labor will level off.
But I would not hazard a guess as to when that will be.

it wont help the VK this summer

I don't think it will be this one year.
The demographics in the area have skewed to an older generation.

The old ''family tourism'' dynamic that used to run from during the summer vacation from school, and that we tried to expand into the early spring and late fall with weekend events has been replaced for the time being by near retirement/retired individuals/couples.

Since the largest number of Boomers were born in 1959, and will not turn 65 (Medicare) until 2024... I think the current situation still has ''legs''.

I hope you're right. This expansion has gone on longer than I expected it would. But then, Covid thru a wrench in all predictions and no one knew how it was going to shake out and still don't.
It's better to be busy and under staffed rather than slow and over staffed. Sent from my SM-G991U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

I expect it to go on much longer.
I think we will see the phenomena in the lakes region for at least another decade. Lots of Boomers looking to retire... many of them New Money.

thats the correct answer. the all about me generation expects there cake and eat it to. thanks to Sleepy Creepy Joe. go tell heaths grocery store they have to pay more money and guess what the answer will be.

I hate to say it but most of these kids are making more money without even working, and it's not from unemployment. They are all gamblers. During Covid they went from gambling on sports to gambling on stocks. Many of these kids haven't experienced a down turn yet. When that happens they will feel the cruel reality of losing everything with no way to stop the bleeding. They are all day traders and that's what's propping up the markets. Wait until they all start heading for the doors at the same time.
This has been going on for 12 years now. It started long before sleepy Joe.

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How many "kids" do you know to make this generalization?! I mean, I teach seniors in high school and continue to keep touch with many of them, and I know half a dozen of hundreds that gamble. The other 99.9% are working their butts off (too many hours in my estimation).

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Not so much high school but after high school. Kids in school aren't collecting unemployment. Most high school kids are still being subsidized by their parents. My youngest is 33 so I'm not talking about youngsters.
My son has made quite a bit of money over the past 10 years in the market. I try to stress upon him the risk and that the market can drop a lot faster then it goes up. All the kids he grew up with are doing the same thing, risky business. Sent from my SM-G991U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

They work pretty hard. Even the high school employees we have are pretty hard working. Fast and very quick to adapt.

Just not enough of them for the increased demand. I do more than four times the business that I used to do, and we now have five of us doing the same thing.

I think that business managers, and customers, need to adapt to more efficient use of the labor force.

As for the difference that I have seen in their investment-style, more of a "Bogle" approach with index funds compared to the older generations use of target funds. They don't tend to trade more often, but do have to make an allocation adjustment at least once a year.

They must be behind the kids in the cities like Boston and NY as far as investing. Most of those kids are investing in Crypto currencies and NFT's which are highly volatile but are taking off right now. They start out with Crypto and from there they buy all their other investments with their crypto profits. It's gambling, as far as I'm concerned! The NFT market is crazy right now. I don't understand it so stay far away from anything I can't wrap my head around, or wrap my fingers around.

You mistake being more conservative for being less sophisticated.

Great point. Pretty much everything about cryptocurrency, NFTs, and meme stocks flies in the face of finance theory and should cause sophisticated investors deep confusion and discomfort.

Do you really trust an anonymous black box such as Bitcoin with your life savings? Is one digital file that is indistinguishable from another digital file really worth more, simply because you have an NFT that shows the first file was created first? Do you really think that Game Stop is worth 10X what the professionals believe?

I don't think those investors are any less sophisticated... just more New Money rather than Old Money in the attitudes.

Most think those two markers are about how much wealth someone has rather than the attitude on life that they have.

Tortoise and the Hare.
New Money is more like the Hare, flashy and focused on now.
Old Money is more like the Tortoise... conservative and focused over the generations.

I just heard a phrase I hadn't heard previously and thought I'd share an article that corresponds to the "great resignation."

I've not read this yet but thought I'd put it here for thoughts. Have any business owners seen a "return to work" movement since the unemployment benefits have been cancelled?

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/10079...-saying-i-quit

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Discussed this same issue this morning as my daughter had someone quit at 9:30 today. We believe the individual had been hired by a west coast company and had to call in. Call in to work, never thought I would read that as normal. Low unemployment, work from home, and no ties by a employer makes it easy to shift from one company to another.


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Quits are up, available jobs still high, lots of people not looking . Don't know what it means for country over next 10-20 years but to me it means we need more immigration as they tend to work hard, are from countries with nothing and generally believe in the American dream of yesteryear. that is work hard to get ahead for their families

Agreed on the right type of immigration!!

I am a partner in a 10 person security consulting firm based in MA that does business internationally. We have recently brought 2 new, very good people onboard. One is located in TX, the other is in SC. I know a big factor is getting them on was not having to come into our office regularly, only to client sites as needed.

There are some people that are just going to take the summer off knowing that the HR process is very slow this time of year.

New Hampshire is going to struggle, especially competing with border states when their minimum wages are much higher than NH...

New England Minimum wage rates:

New Hampshire $7.25 per hour
Vermont $11.25 per hour
Maine $12.15 per hour
Massachusetts $13.50 per hour

It has very little to do with hard work.
Plenty of jobs mean that they can take the one that best suits them.
And plenty of customers mean that we can pick and choose which to do business with.

As we drive down the main drag in most towns wifey makes note of the help wanted signs.

She suggests that even I could now get hired.

The trouble is that the employer would want me to show up for work at a certain time and day.

That doesn't suit my schedule.

I guess I shall remain... unemployable.

:D

You bring up a new reality, though, I think: all those retired people I know no longer want to bother with work. I mean, who wants to be a Walmart greeter for $10 these days (besides maybe FLL)?!

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I would respectfully disagree.

Legal immigration, yes. But many of the people breaking in to our country are here for the free ride, free medical, or even worse, to commit crimes (Other that the one they committed by breaking into the country)

The number of unemployed roughly equals the number of job openings. In other words, if you shut off 100% of unemployment benefits the unemployment rate would get to near zero because people would need jobs to survive. The system has made it too easy to be lazy and too many have taken advantage of it.

In the current economy there is no reason for someone to say that they cannot find a job unless their mental or physical limitations prevent them from working. Many employers I know are practically begging for people to work and many available positions are for entry level jobs.

Your numbers are bad.
Employment is a local situation, and locally we would need four times the number of unemployed to meet the current known demand for employees.

No one would ''escape'' a country with constitutionally-ingrained free healthcare to come to one without it for the express purpose of free healthcare.

And the concept of immigration restriction is a relatively modern concept based on the Reserve Army of Labor Theory.

i never said i support illegal immigration. The number of temporary visas for summer help have been reduced and these were many workers that handled summer work. Give more of them out to help the country wide summer jobs. Prior to the change in laws in the 60's Mexican labor could flow back and forth and did. There was little interest in becoming American citizens but wanted to work in seasonal jobs and go back home when done.

In states that ended expanded unemployment benefits claims have dropped 41% in the past 6 weeks. In states that continue to pay the higher amount claims have only dropped 33% in the same 6 week period.

That makes it pretty obvious that some people who could be working are staying home collecting the "free" money.

8% isn't that "obvious."

Also, just doing a quick research piece now, it seems like that number is directly affected by a state's unemployment rate. So, 33% drop in a state with lower unemployment to begin with is as good/better than the alternative.

I'd be interested to find out the percentage of people who "can't" just take another job and are waiting for the "right" because of the financial need piece. Specifically, a software engineer who was making $100k can't just take a MacDonald's gig making $10/hr. and meet the bills, etc.

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Interesting article.

I would point out that, like the people in this article, many people have been stressed out either by COVID issues, resulting short staffing, or by the nature of their jobs in general. Some feel under paid and/or unappreciated.

OK.

Like the software developer, some people are looking for job satisfaction/life balance. Great. But guess what. The nature of work is better paying jobs come with higher skill requirements and demands for performance and responsibility. Some are looking for other work that lets them spend more time with their kids. Nice, however, when those kids want to go to a sports camp and eventually go to college, you ALSO need money to pay for those things. Only YOU can decide if 10 extra hours per week at work and away from your kids plus additional work stress is WORTH being able to pay the bills that go along with raising kids.

These people questioning their life path WILL have to find other work. They will probably eventually find another truth as well; THERE IS NO PERFECT SOLUTION TO LIFE'S CHALLENGES AND DEMANDS. All jobs have their flaws. There is always a problem balancing available free time vs. money needed and the balance point is UNIQUE to each individual. Further, you may feel you are underpaid but do you have the skills and work ethic to get a better paying job? Are you willing to put in the effort to achieve the skill levels needed? I would suggest that the thing holding most people back from better pay and more rewarding work is THEMSELVES.

So, there is going to be a great reshuffling. Some people, as bills pile up, are going to end up in the same type of jobs they were in before. Some will jump into entirely new fields with success or failure. Old jobs will be picked up by other people making a change or new in the workforce.

COVID has been a great unsettling influence and it may take a few years to rebalance the economy. This kind of process has happened before and will happen again.

My daughter and son inlaw, with 3 kids under 8, both work their arses off. My son inlaw is a fireman and sells real estate, my daughter is a buyer for TJX and has her own online business. They are both going in a hundred million directions 24/7.
While I commend their work ethic the children suffer because only one parent is available a any one time. We try to help as much as possible but my wife and I are 66 and 67 so our energy level isn't what it use to be.
My daughter just quit her TJX job because it was taking a toll on their family life, physically and mentally. So their income is basically cut in half.
At some point you have to take a step back and reassess the goal of chasing the all mighty dollar and having a happy family life.

Biggd, agree fully with your statement. Back in the day the wife and I would discuss scheduling and work responsibilities after dinner and determine which ones took priority over others. Never a pleasant conversation. Eventually we dropped one full time career for a part time and never looked back. Now we are both retired and laugh about what we found important.


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I agree too. Your kids illustrate the basic problem with soaring real estate prices. They create an economy that is great for older people and the wealthy, but makes it super hard for young families to get a foothold.

I wasn't going to write this but each needs to make the decision that’s best for them and their family . I was raised by a single mom who worked in a shoe shop and we lived over a bar. I managed to graduate from college from a school that wouldn't be in any top 500 colleges. I got a job and worked up to become a ceo of a large company. Was i home during the week not usually ( many times out of country) but i chose not to plan golf on the weekends and went to all their sports all over the country. I had three kids all went to top 30 schools and were able graduate with no debt. I have done well enough that all ten grandkids are funded at least for instate tuition . Are they better off who knows. So everyone takes their owe path but if you chose a lower stress job i applaud you but don't also lambaste the other person who went down a different path . That seems to be the trend in this country. Sorry to get off the lake topic but just got in today and having a glass of wine.

And what does any of that have to do with local business having trouble finding help?

They say if your work involves doing something that you love you will never work a day in your life. It seems as though many younger folk are doing just that.
Me, I had a love/hate relationship with my career for 50 years, 35 in business for myself, but the driving force was having a good home life.
My 3 kids are all healthy and have good jobs. Now it's up to them to choose their own best path.
Don't be afraid of change. "Today is the first day of the rest of your life". Words to live by!

Really? You have to ask that?

Let me explain: If more people want to stay home and collect unemployment there will be fewer people looking for and taking jobs. Fewer people taking jobs means more business with unfilled positions.

Or, to put it another way: As long as the government makes it more lucrative to sit on the couch than look for a job and go to work, people will stay home.

As has been said by a local talk show host: The safety net has become a hammock!