Ice In
 

Ok, so I know it's been unusually warm, and we really can't define "Ice-In". But with the forecast now showing more normal nighttime temps well below freezing, and the water temperature approaching the 30's, it's time for ice reports. I expect we'll start seeing areas of skim ice within the next week. This thread will serve for those posts.

The lake normally is mostly iced-in by early January. Despite this year's warm Fall temps, the water temperatures seem to be fairly normal for this time of year (plus or minus a few degrees). It will be interesting to see how it evolves this year.

I know that I always do this to the first post about ice-in every year but we are weeks away from ice on anything but the smaller lakes and shallow ponds.

It takes quite a while for the top layer (several feet) of water to reach the uniform 39 degree threshold of maximum density that is required for it to freeze. Then you need several nights of clear, calm, and cold (0-10 degrees) to make it all happen. Time will tell....


BT

Agreed. As I said in the earlier note, it's usually early to mid-January , at the earliest, before the lake is considered mostly covered. But I would not be surprised to hear of shallow coves and other areas having a skim coat in the AM on some of the upcoming mornings with temps in the teens. I'm sure this will disappear as the day wears on, but it's the start of the process.

yesterday's water temp is 6 degrees warmer than last year on the same day

No worries
 

The law of averages. Too early to worry about ice in. Getting colder. Be patient.

This is from the Farmers Almanac:


DECEMBER 2011: temperature 29° (5° above avg. north, 1° below south); precipitation 3" (avg.); Dec 1-4: Rainy periods, quite mild; Dec 5-8: Flurries, seasonable; Dec 9-16: Snow showers; mild, then cold; Dec 17-21: Blizzard, then windy, cold; Dec 22-23: Heavy snow, seasonable; Dec 24-29: Snow showers, mild; Dec 30-31: Sunny, cold.

JANUARY 2012: temperature 23° (3° above avg.); precipitation 2" (1" below avg.); Jan 1-8: Sunny, then snow showers, mild; Jan 9-12: Sunny, cold; Jan 13-19: Snow north, showers south, then sunny, mild; Jan 20-26: Snowstorm, then snow showers, seasonable; Jan 27-31: Snow showers, very cold.

Lees Mills Ice Skim
 

On Sunday morning (12/11/11) there was a good skim ice in the Lees Mills area. The attached photo is showing Lees Landing.

It's been posted on this site before, but with ice forming over the next month, this reminder from the Farmers Almanac on safe ice levels is worth reviewing (though if we stay 4-5 degrees above average temps much longer, it may not happen this winter)

http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.alm...ethickness.pdf

Looking at the 15-day forecast through Accuweather there looks to be a brief cool down in the next week and then warmer again. There may not be a Ice In this year.

Perfect !!!!!! :eek: Bring on the boating season

Them's fightin' words!

According to today's Friday LaDaSun, the Gunstock ski area wants to get open for this season with maybe two trails open or something on this Sunday, December 18. What with today's sunny and mid-40's temps here in Meredith, that doesn't seem possible, but maybe they'll get enough snow making time crammed into the Saturday predicted cold snap? ....stay tuned....can they do it?

Most likely, the ground up on Gunstock mountain has yet to freeze up what with all the rainfall over the last two days.

...say-hey....there's always outdoor tennis at your local free public tennis courts and you don't need to purchase an expensive lift ticket to use the courts.....tennis!

water temp this year on Dec 14 was 43 same as last year on dec 2 so we are as of now running about two weeks later than last year

A couple of the web cams show some ice this morning. Alton bay cam looks the best.

No "Ice in"?
 

What will we do during February if we don't have "Ice Out" to monitor? I would miss the anticipation of returning to Rattlesnake.....

At 8 AM the ice was solid (no holes) past the bandstand in Alton Bay. That was when the temps were down in the teens, but now creping toward the 30° mark. An http://i52.tinypic.com/2s8k8lh.gif thought for many viewers.

http://i54.tinypic.com/2e56yqf.gif

Here's the picture
 

Taken from 28A near the old Oak Birch Inn.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo.../IMAG00921.jpg

and from Railroad Park on the west side of the bay.
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...m/IMAG0093.jpg
small steps!!!!

Does anybody know the water temp?

Per Black Cat weather station
 

at 2 ft: 40.7 at 10 ft: 38.6

Here is a link to that site:

http://www.blackcatnh.com/

Thank you.

Ice in
 

I saw a sheen of ice on the Wentworth webcam in early morning yesterday. I fear real winter will never come, what a horrible thought!

Lilly Pond...
 

... is completely iced over. Drove by it today on my way to the Gilford recycle station.

Wonder if it's the same as Ice Out. "They" (whoever They are) say that Lilly Pond goes Ice Out 2 weeks before Winni, maybe it goes "Ice In" 2 weeks before?

The 10 day outlook on weather.com shows lows in the 20's. That is not ideal for ice making. I hope we don't have a repeat of 2006 when the derby was delayed and there were soft spots all over the place.

The thickest ice I saw on my way to work this morning was on I93 from Tilton to Manchester. Jeesh.....thanks for the heads up weather forecasters. The scene around the Hooksett tolls was down right apocalyptic.

And I think Winni is going to take a heck of a lot longer than 2 weeks to ice in.

This is a bad weather pattern if you enjoy snow and lake ice.

ice in
 

Has there been a year that the lake hasnt frozen over ?

I know there have been years when the broads never locked up.

I know it's still fall, but the bays should be locked up with ice by now right? (even if it's just a couple of inches)

Alton bay seems to be the only one holding any ice and Moultonboro bay seems like it's trying hard. My knowledge is only based on what I can see from the cameras.

Iceman cometh and goeth
 

It was surprising to see some of Moultonborough Bay frozen this morning. It had frozen about half-way across over the weekend, but blew out in Monday's winds. Tuesday AM, it was frozen half-way again with a light coat of snow on it. Now, the rains have come and it is looking very thin and gray. It will probably not last till tomorrow.

lake temp at 40 still two weeks behind last year

The water temp is pretty much where it was in December of 2006, a year when many also worried there would be no ice-in. The lake was still mostly open in late January.

But it got very cold in late January, and February, and by the end of January, there were reports of 10" of ice. It can change quickly. It is New England, after all.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ghlight=iceout

And, this website reports today's Weirs Beach air temp at 1:33-pm to be 48-degrees......now that's pretty warm for December 22!

Winnisquam did not in 2001-2002.

Ice-out records have been kept for 125 years (beginning in 1887). Over that time, there hasn't been a single year that the lake didn't freeze over (although the broads might have remained open). Ice out has occured in April 109 times; 13 times in May; and 3 times in March.

The ice-out history can be found here.

I guess we can declare "ice-in" this morning (Dec 25). The Mt Washington can't make it down the bay today without cutting through a lot of ice. It moved in quickly this morning, and there is a thin sheet of ice at least 1.5 miles long.

a little ice in meredith
 

we went out to the island yesterday and just a little ice around the mainland dock... it was a beautiful day for a ride in the alumacraft... but the 'wind chill' was freezing when we got any speed up!

we didn't see any (other fools) out on the water

hoping for ice -PIG

With temps remaining in the 40's through the night and heavy wind and rain, We should see much of the skim ice in the protected coves and bays disappear tomorrow night.

But then the next night will be in the low teens, and it will stay below freezing for 24+ hours, so much of it will probably reform.

past Sandy Point in Alton Bay
 

On the way to the dump, errrr landfill, errrrr Transfer Station (ah, politically correct at last;)), we noticed the ice in the bay was out past Sandy Point. This too will probably change over the next day or so, and then start to reform Thurs.

Ice In Feb 1st??
 

If you look at this thread; http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ad.php?t=11360 it looks like the broads finally froze right around January 14th last year. Based on this and the 10 day forecast we will be at least two weeks or more later this year.

Thoughts or predictions??

Dan

I look at long range weather models as a hobby. They are not always correct, but they do show a trend. Within the last week, two of these long range models have started to show that cold weather, below normal cold weather that is, is coming.

These two models are predicting each of the next three months of 2012 will be below normal temperature-wise in our part of the world. Since it appears the first week or so of January will be near or very slightly above normal, this tells me that it is possible the colder than normal weather will get going soon after the first week in January.

If this happens, it could "rescue" the winter activities on the lake. However, we are well behind where we should be this time of the year and as we get into late January, the sun angle gets higher and that starts impacting ice growth, especially if there is no snow on the ice to reflect back the suns rays.

Bottom line is, IF these two long range models are correct, we could still have a reasonable winter. However, if they do not have it right and the warm trend of the last six months continues, we will remember this winter as one with poor, unsafe ice conditions.

I only have been looking at temperatures, not the more complicated view on precipitation, so I am not saying these models are predicting big snow storms. They might or might not be doing this, I have not looked at this that deeply. We need to get it cold first.

I share this only to say there is a possible light at the end of the tunnel. Let's hope it is not another train! :)

R2B

As of now, weather.com (TWC) shows some pretty cold temps for the next 10days. The predicted 5* low will help give the ice a jump.