Ice-Out 2012
 

Welcome to the Official 2012 Ice-Out thread. The lake temperature reached 38 degrees this morning. Ice-out has occured in recent years from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam. You can also observe the 2 ft and 10 ft temps rising at http://www.blackcatnh.com/ (just under the Black Cat Island Weather Cam picture)

The lake is covered with new snow this morning, but that is just Mother Nature trying to confuse us!

The ice out page is up at www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm where you can watch the ice melt. Unfortunately Snake Eyes did not come back when the power was restored to Rattlesnake Island this month. She needs a reboot and no one is able to get to the island to do that.

Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. It looks to be another record early melt!

Click to see the lake 13 days before iceout in 2010, http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Feature...ce-3-12-10.JPG


IG

The Black Cat Cam is really showing some expanding open water areas today.

My Favorite Annual Thread!
 

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1329936609
WeirsCam

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1329936006
Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam (Black Cat Cam)

Water Temperature at 2 ft: 36.3 °F

Water Temperature at 10 ft: 38.8 °F

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1329936097
Minge Cove Webcam

I have a report that Silver Lake in Hollis is ice free. Historically speaking, it has been one week ahead of Lake Winnipesaukee since I have been paying attention.
I suspect this may not be the case, though last year I thought the same thing and it was a one week spread. Regardless, all indicators seem to point to another historic ice-out!!!

Much as I'd like it, and despite the temps, it IS still February. Longer range forecasts show some pretty cold nights coming up next week. While it may start breaking up, I think we're going to have ice around for awhile.

Today's satellite photo with the feather dusting of snow shows just how much of the lake has as least "some" ice on it. I suspect it is very thin in some spots. Sorry for the clouds. I can't control that. The lake is dead center.

BT

IG,

Sorry for the PM. I see the correlation you are trying to make.

BT

Silver Lake Indicator
 

My spotter was wrong. Silver Lake in Hollis is about 3/4 ice free. Should be out by Friday. Come on ice-out!

Thanks IG
 

I've been waiting for this! I was actually going to post some iceout related observations this AM, but I didn't want to be presumptuous, no worries now. Canobie Lake in Salem and another small nameless pond are typical measures I use for iceout on Winni and they are usually ice free 2 to 3 weeks before. Canobie had a lot of open water (couldn't see the whole thing) and the little pond was totally clear. Not sure if that will hold true this year with it being so early, but it sure is nice to see. Better call the insurance company and change the my in water date :)

I was in Alton today. Lots of standing water on the bay and some good cracks with water opening about half way down. It looks very porous just past Loon Cove.

The cam at Downings is showing some ice chunking up. Still lots of bob houses on the bay- I think if they are not off by the beginning of the week they may be bobbing!

Silver Lake indicator
 

Typically how long after Silver lake is Winnipesaukee?

Forget the question, didn't see it in the post above, sorry.

Time to get the boat ready!!!

Rowboat and sailboats, yes! With the way gas prices are, I'm not sure how often the big boat will leave the dock. ; )

i know one thing
Sand bars will be extra busy this year, get there early

also wont be much boating in chop

Maybe not
 

People still have to get from point A to point B. With gas prices going up (one MASS station was already at $4.19 this morning) many might elect not to venture this far for vacation. :eek:
Of course maybe some of the vacation places might actually have to drop their prices this summer to attract people up. It is hard to believe how many will complain about not having business and never once consider dropping their prices to attract business. Something is always better then nothing. :cool:
One good thing is with the timing of the fuel price increases there is a really good chance that I will get to see diesel fuel priced lower then regular gas. This will only happen during the summer when home heating oil demand is down. So it might be cheaper to drive my diesel then my gas vehicle. Bike will be out really soon though. :D

If the lake does not rise we will be standing in the sand with out the water :eek:

Two signs of early Spring today,

1. An area of the Merrymeeting River that just opened up in the past 24 hours already had a duck couple swimming around in it today.
2. The eagles that nested on the river last year are already busy starting their nest.

Saw a very large flock of Canadian Geese today on some open water on Wheelwright Pond in Lee today. They were there just before noon and I saw them again about 4:00 PM. So Ice Out can't be too far away on Winni!

Rain and Temps in the Forties
 

Looks like next week is going to be rain with temps in the forties during the day. Thinking that my first ice out guess in my life...is going to be WAY OFF. :rolleye2:

When I made my guess of the 17th I thought to myself "no way can it really go that early". Now I think I overshot it a bit. I am on a cruise for a week next month, and think that it will probably go while I am away.

Ice out to me really means getting from gyc to mark, as this early in the year it is all I need. I am sure that path will be well clear before some of the bays.

Northern watershed
 

The Sandwich area has more snow in the woods than most other areas, so we will get at least some runoff. There also could easily be a large rain event in the spring. Don't worry too much yet. The lake is about 1/2 foot above normal for this time of year.

Lily Pond
 

I hear Lily Pond still has ice but is looking pretty grey, this should be a good indicator of when we will see ice-out.
I do believe we will see open water on the lake in March, however we will be waiting on Center Harbor and Alton Bay to let loose which may not be until late March.
As soon as the ice clears between Meredith Neck and Bear that will be my ice-out.

I agree. It took me a few years to learn as my eagerness to see ice-out would have me rush ice-out in anticipation.

But, as an example, several areas of the Merrymeeting River that had opened up in the past week have closed or skimmed over again. The low temps at night at this time of year tend to offset the loss during the day. The net result is a LONG period of not much happening toward ice-out. Especially this year as the "average" temperatures between now and mid-April will tend toward the status quo.

Having said that, it is interesting to see holes opening up in areas visible on the Ossipee webcam. Ossipee, in the area viewed by the webcam, usually freezes before Winnipesaukee, and opens later. But the melting/errosion from the higher temps below the ice seems to be having an effect.

And it can't happen soon enough...

It's usually about 2 weeks after Lily Pond goes that the big lake goes. I guessed March 24th this year, that's my dad's birthday.

Couple holes opened up on the Ossippe web cam this week. The one thing I always learned about on Winni iice out it comes down to 2 things........amount of rain and the amount of wind. Wind can destroy a alot of soft ice fast.

winds today
 

Is the ice thin enough for these winds to have an impact?

Some Open Water
 

Hope we make more ice-out progress with these sunny days and the couple predicted warm days!

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969564
WeirsCam - March 5th

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969564
Minge Cove Webcam - March 5th

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969414
Sunday, March 4, 2012 MODIS Satellite image of the lake from March 4th (5th not available yet)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969950
Varney Point Cam Gilford - March 5th

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330970265
Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam

Water Temperature at 2 ft: 36.4 °F

Water Temperature at 10 ft: 38.4 °F

Do not forget Spring forward this weekend with day light savings

I was at the lake on Friday to register my boats and saw several very large open patches out by Welch Island, some in the broads and also by Diamond.

Was talking with a guy from Winni Marine Construction that same day and he said there's an open spot by the sand bar going into West Alton Marina and that the ice is very thin. He also said that a biologist went through the ice last week, behind Rattlesnake if I recall but perhaps someone has more information. Fortunately he made it out.

Ice Out
 

This is one of my favorite times watching Ice Out and following the Forum. Never would have guessed that I would be watching ice melt daily. But the daialy looks at the Forum photos and postings help the emd of winter and begin the planning for the opening of the island.

In receent years have been able to get to island before official Ice Out.

I expect to be on Rattlesnake at Easter this year. Call me an optimist!

Keep up the postings

Looking at the satellite picture, it looks like a very large area of open water to the Broads side of Rattlesnake and two smaller open areas south of the big one. They look like big dark circles....am i seeing that correctly?

The snow makes it look like we are a lot further from ice out than before the snow fell but I'm guessing that optical illusion will be corrected after a few sunny days in the 50s later this week.

Thicker ice?
 

The ice north of M'boro bay has been booming all day - like it does in early January when it is getting thicker. With the recent cold temperatures, I'm wondering if some areas are becoming safe again? There is nobody out fishing to ask, but a few snowmobiles went by on the ice on Sunday.

This has been a very strange winter.

The strong March sun vs. the colder than average temperatures was today's battle and will also be the battle tomorrow. Very cold for this time of the year tonight and tomorrow night. Wednesday and Thursday look to be very warm with sun, and the next ten days starting Wednesday also looks warm.

The ice builds tonight and tomorrow night, but after that it loses significant ground to the warm air and the sun.

Ice out around March 25th, plus or minus 3 days, is what I am still thinking. Big hole east of Rattlesnake already.

Crazy non-winter!

R2B

Yes, I think you are as those are the same areas I saw open last Friday

Two week Indicator
 

For the past few years I have always used Massabesic lake in Manchester / Auburn as my indicator for ice out on Winni. I go by Massabesic every day on my way to work so it's been easy and kinda fun watching the ice go out there then figuring out when Winni's ice will be out.

For three years in a row now, the day the ice is completely off Massabesic, 14 days later ice out on Winni has been declared. By tomorrow afternoon all ice will be off Massabesic! If my ice out method holds true, ice out on Winni should occur on March 22.

Remember you heard it here!! :D

Dan

Twenty guesses for that date in total. It will be a tight race if that's the day.:D

Photo from Gunstock 3/6/2012
 

A friend sent this to me today; took it yesterday on Gunstock.

There's some blue looking stuff out there! Yay!
http://www.pontoonbarge.com/forumpic...k_03062012.jpg

With rain, wind, and high-temps forecast for tomorrow, those holes should widen quickly.

Holes starting to show on the Paugus Bay and Ossipee Lake Cams.

I think it is time to seriously believe that Ice-Out will be soon. With the usual qualifier that it depends on whether the forecast is close, the 10-day forecasts are showing NO below freezing temperatures as far as can be seen after Sunday. When the temps stay above freezing at night, the pace picks up considerably.
:liplick:

Pictures
 

Would love to see some pictures of the ice after tomorrow afternoon. Especially some aerials. Hint, hint hint.