Current Covid situation in New Hampshire
 

Based on the state data at https://www.covid19.nh.gov/dashboard/overview

In June 2021 there was a 7-day average of 20 new cases per day. Right now the 7-day average is 546 new cases per day---27 times more than in June! As I recall, there were about 350 active cases in June. Today there are 4,517 active cases.

We are clearly in an intense fourth wave that is increasing dramatically each week. At the height of the 2020 pandemic (May), there were 97 new cases per day in New Hampshire. Thus the current wave is about 6 times worse than the worst part of 2020. The increase is not all due to being indoors in the colder season---the uptick was very steep in July and August.

New Hampshire's Covid situation is currently worse than the former hotspots of Florida, Texas, and California.

Some observations that account for New Hampshire's poor performance in reducing infections:

(1) The vaccination rate is the lowest in New England and below the national average.

(2) Almost no one is wearing a mask in stores here in the Lakes Region.

(3) The NH Executive Council turned down $27 million in federal aid to support vaccination efforts.

(4) People appear convinced that the pandemic is over. They are going about their lives as before the pandemic, indicating a lack of education about where the pandemic really stands in New Hampshire.

Those are the facts. We are clearly headed into a 3rd year of the pandemic. There aren't many signs that people care about that fact, meaning they don't care about dying or people close to them dying, time lost from work if they get sick, or the huge economic impacts of the pandemic. They just don't care enough to use the means easily available to them to stop the pandemic---means that cost very little time or money and that impose no real hardship on people.

This is a sad situation that predicts a very bad outcome for the other huge existential problems we face, especially the climate crisis. In a word, not enough of the human race cares enough to take action to preserve our own species, as seen right here in New Hampshire.

With that all said, the current housing market should yield you a nice profit.


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I appreciate SailinAway's concern and not letting our guard down.

But I don't think it's quite as bad as you say. Certainly could be better though.

1) It looks like NH might be peaking. See the chart below. We'll probably know better in a few weeks. COVID is known to have 2 month cycle. NH just might be lagging in that cycle. Note that UK is on the way up AGAIN. NH might get that wave come January or February. So even if we are peaking it doesn't mean it's the final wave.

2) Even though NH is not high on vaccinated scale across all ages. They are extremely high (98% have at least one dose that are over 65 years old !!). See the link below.

3) I have seen plenty of places in NH still using masks. Probably less than MA but still a significant chunk.

4) Be careful looking at just new cases. That has been a very misleading indicator. because if testing ramps up (say schools started mandatory testing). Detected cases goes up even if nothing changed. Look at death rates per capita to really know how we are doing. NH is still pretty low on that but still worse than July. Death rates also lag by 1-2 months.

Lot of data at this link. Interesting way up north is a problem. Most of the Lakes Region looks pretty good.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

As a younger demographic becomes the majority of active cases, it is probably more determinant to look at hospitalizations rather than deaths.

Lost time has been an ongoing issue with most business, but the numbers aren't tracked.

A perfect example of how numbers can be used to make 2 completely different arguments.

When you look at the data here: https://www.google.com/search?q=nh+c...client=gws-wiz

You will see the 7 day death average in NH is currently 4, telling me that NH is one of the safest places to be in the country!

Its right in line with where NH was in May 2020 (a date referenced from above) and leaves me with both a great sense of comfort and safety, but also causes me concern and to question why there is so much fear mongering that is destroying our country.

This obsession about infection rate is clearly fueled by the media and politicians for god only knows what reason, but with average citizens fanning the flames of fear one can only wonder why. Is it fear, maybe. I suspect its something deeper, an odd human compulsion to need a crisis to worry about.

Time and time again we hear the manipulated information x dead from COVID or COVID complications, and a perfect example is Colin Powell. Announced as died for complications of COVID, not died of complications of terminal cancer as would have been the case 2 years ago. Never ever in the past did you hear of a terminal cancer patient dying from complications of a head cold or the flu, it was always from cancer, then along comes COVID and murder/suicide's, car accidents victims, cancer patients, slip and fall deaths and everything else are listed as COVID deaths if they tested positive for COVID in the autopsy.

So is NH unsafe and in a COVID death spiral, well not from what I can see.

I walk through any space in the state and without any substantially greater fear of death than I had 5 years ago, 10 years ago, ever.

Live Free and leave your worries for actual high risk concerns.

At last check the national average risk of death from COVID was 1 in 500, almost exactly the same as hang gliding!

Not exactly something to cause me to stop living, or to live in fear from.

I'm sure another person can take the same data and make a completely different case, maybe this all aligns with an astrological event and we simply need to wait until Saturn goes Station Retrograde in Aquarius at Sat Jun 04 2022 17:47.

Yup then this will be over,,,

A sliver of truth with a large slice of baloney. Multiple Myeloma is a long slow process, many live with it for decades. Powell was immunocompromised by the cancer, but you have no basis other than paranoia to assert cancer killed him when an autopsy says otherwise. And of course, this slip and fall stuff has been completely debunked elsewhere

The weird part is he is the one that keeps focusing on death, as if that is the only negative consequence to this whole event.

COVID DATA - Lies and Manipulation or Jts 2 sides of a coin,,,
 

Just some background

Coroner: State included a murder-suicide in Grand’s COVID deaths:

https://www.skyhinews.com/news/coron...-covid-deaths/



Bob Woodward Says Colin Powell Opened Up About Cancer Diagnosis Prior to Death

"In a July 12 phone interview — recorded by Woodward, 68, for his book, Peril and obtained by CNN — Powell told the veteran journalist that he had been battling multiple myeloma for almost two years. Further, Powell told Woodward he also had Parkinson's."

https://people.com/politics/colin-po...reer-and-life/



The median overall survival of an elderly (≥80 years) cohort of myeloma patients was 22 months, with an early mortality rate (at 2 months) of 14%



confusion continues over whether people die of COVID-19 or with COVID-19.

https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/h...-s-complicated

Then clearly there all the media publications saying the COVID deaths are being under-reported.

So as stated previously, the same numbers can be used to tell 2 completely different stories and are often used exactly. Is the tank half full and you are ok, or is it half empty and you better start planning for a refill before you run out.

For me the only COVID number of significant interest is the 7 day death average. Thats how I gauge safety. From my seat, getting colds and flu and viruses are all part of existing, and no vaccine or practice can 100% protect you from that.

The rest is just living, so live with it, not in fear of it.

So use common sense, and worry about something that is a legitimate and serious risk to your life. Like undue stress over COVID. Thats probably more harmful to our country as a whole than the virus, but there is no study or measurement of how much people are getting stressed out over all this.

Others opinions will vary, so be it.

We are all dying from the moment we are born. So you could argue COVID has not killed anyone. Collin was on the fast track to his death and COVID put him on the express train. It’s that simple.

It’s why COVID hits elderly hard. You can have a decent quality of life 65 and up. But even a flu or fall can kill you. COVID is 10x worse than the flu. And that’s a big difference. It’s extremely contagious and that’s why it’s dangerous.

What they also don’t track is how many people that have survived COVID and what their post COVID quality of life is. I know a few people that got it and none of them recovered like the flu.

It is far more likely deaths due to COVID are under counted than over counter.

10x worse even after taking substantial steps to reduce its impacts. What would that 700k+ body count be if we never masked/quarantined/shut down/vaccinated?

Your second point is important, too: the message has been death, but I've had a lot of students—read: young people who "aren't affected"—who have struggled for weeks with lethargy, advanced cold symptoms, eating/smelling/tasting issues, etc.

While I am at the point where I think we need to move forward—we know how to personally minimize our risks while also having widespread vaccination access—it's silly to minimize the virus and its impacts.

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RE: "COVID is 10x worse than the flu"

100% agreed, but only for for some people, and they are very small group of the population.

And for those who survive and continue to suffer problems, they (including myself) are very few in number. After several discussions with my primary, I have been repeatedly told that "long haul COVID" is not well studied, there are no official guidelines or treatment, and few programs to study this.

As for the overwhelming percent of COVID infected, most dont even know they have/had it and only knew because they were tested.

So while some have died (.2% of our population, accepting/using the official numbers) the cold and hard fact is that this is not the apocalypse they said it would be, and with current treatments and knowledge, there really is no justification for keeping the pandemic machine running and any mandates in place.

We are simply throwing untold tax payer dollars away accomplishing almost nothing by keeping the pandemic machine in the on mode.

Well except for lining some peoples pockets and giving the media and politicians something to broadcast.

On the negative side, they are still crushing small businesses with the restrictions, and promoting unfounded fear mongering such as we continue to see here on this forum.

This is now mostly a social matter (or more correctly a social media matter), not a medical crises.

Those of you who wish to continue living in fear are certainly able to do so, as there are countless mechanisms to support you. Its like the backyard fallout shelter madness of the 1950's. But the fear mongering should stop and the country move on and back to some sense of restored normal.

If we can fill sports stadiums with 10's of thousands of people, fly them across the country in airplanes, and have our most prominent political officials all interacting without any social distancing and without masks, I think this matter is mostly done and no further discussion needed by the masses.

ATB to those of you who exercise common sense in this matter.

My sincere and heartfelt sorrow for those of you who still live in fear and cannot find a way to move forward. I hope you folks can find some sense of relief from what the media and politicians continue to subject you to.

So although you have long haul covid, you have still written more than the rest of us (combined?) about covid, and all of it telling us not to worry. I hope you feel better, and that you share your experiences/symptoms so the rest of us can understand.

700,000 dead in the US is apocalyptic, as least by modern standards. It's way worse than predicted a year and a half ago. Even worse than predicted a few months ago

XCR is very sensical.


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Apocalyptic? Really???


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Clearly there is a bottomless pit here for fear mongering,,,

Seems to me we were told countless times 2 million would be dead by summer 2020 if drastic measures were not taken, that might have been apocalyptic in less than 6 months. But .2% of the population dying not of COVID, but with COVID almost 2 years in, nope not quite an apocalypse to me.

Some of the nonsense might be forgivable because at the time we didnt know what we were dealing with, but today, this madness is just filling some strange desire or fetish people have for a crisis.

As for sharing my experience, probably what saved me was not going to the hospital, at the time I had COVID they would have put me on a ventilator and I doubt I would have survived. Too many mistakes were made early on, things are much better now and death rates clearly not warranting the inexcusable mandates going on.

Single most important thing to remember about COVID, most people have almost no symptoms and no problems. And the second most important thing to remember, if you do get it and have problems, they now have a clue about how to treat you.

Can you die from COVID, absolutely. Can you get really messed up from COVID absolutely. Should you live in fear of COVID, ABSOLUTELY NOT. As a survivor that is THE message I spread, and I had it bad. and with my list of previous health problems, if I survived, it can be done!

Latest information says 1 in 2 will get cancer, 1 in 3 will get shingles, 1 in 500 will die "WITH" COVID.

Risk of reasonable healthy people dying from COVID, really low. But every one is at risk of dying from something EVERY day!

Live life, and ENJOY. But dont live in fear of COVID says the survivor.

ATB

Shingles has a vaccine for those of a certain age; and I have no clue what the mortality rate for it is. But I expect it to be very rare to create the need for hospitalization or lost time from work in the younger set.

And it isn't the death, it is the lost time.
Businesses are dealing heavily with lost time issues.

If a mandate does become regulation, what the work around is may be even less palatable... just a matter of waiting to see.

I couldn't wait to get my Shingles vaccine. Several friends got Shingles and it was nasty. Took a long time to recover too, like a year.

I'm really curious:

(1) Why does it bother you so much how other people "feel" about the pandemic such that you would write thousands of words telling them not to be afraid?

(2) "Says the survivor": What do you suppose the 5 million nonsurvivors around the world are saying, from the grave?

Yes. I wrote "apocalyptic, at least by modern standards", which is a bit of a metaphor.

We're at close to 5,000,000 dead worldwide, over 700,000 in the US. I think the last time that many people died of anything, it was WWII. Plus this cuts across all demographics, and impacts all of our social, educational, and economic systems. I was not old enough to understand Vietnam's impact, but this has had more negative impact than anything in the past 50 years. So I'm OK with calling it apocalyptic by modern standards.

Interesting graphic comparing the death toll of past pandemics.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/his...ics-deadliest/

Deaths in U.S. 737,703
 

Fact Check = https://www.bing.com/search?q=Fact+C...ANNTA1&PC=HCTS

So would you consider cancer heart disease or diabetes apocalyptic also? And yes many many many people have died from Covid but also the numbers are extremely skewed with many many people that died with Covid but not of Covid. Also the numbers need to be compared with flu deaths because as you know those deaths have dropped precipitously


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Interesting that the the fact check business has become such a huge industry that for some organizations it a full time business. Thats you first tip off that misinformation in the media is horrifyingly prevalent.

What I find most interesting is that people believe the fact checkers as if they are some infallible resource or that they embody a far greater level of integrity than their fellow media hacks or the politicians.

So what exactly makes them any authority? Who certifies that they are any more honest than anyone else making money on all this?? What on earth would make you think anything they say is any more accurate than anyone else???

Thats the beauty of the interweb, anyone can become an "influencer" simply by self-presenting as having any knowledge of anything.

Facts are no longer stubborn things, they are now simply words with altered meanings for whatever purpose you wish to promote.

And the truth is something not widely known by most people about almost any matter, as information becomes constantly manipulated for whatever purpose the communicator desires.

All most people are left with is common sense to help them decipher any situation they may assess. And since the invention of the interweb, even common sense is in decline.

So believe what you want, if some feel better believing 700,000 died of COVID (as opposed to "with" COVID) then I hope it serves your purpose and fulfills your needs whatever they are.

I chose to believe COVID is a serious matter and an infection you do not want, but it is not an apocalypse and not something to live in constant fear of, and certainly does not warrant the actions and mandates being imposed.

Most of this is a manipulation to shift huge quantities of money into others pockets, and to seize power over the masses.

Your opinions will vary.

I concur.

The difficulty today is partisan media.

We cannot be there to witness events so we must rely on what we are presented.

What gets presented and how it gets presented matters.

Striving for clicks rather than a reputation of integrity is diminishing what was once a watch dog of how we are governed.

If one dies from a disease/health issue “with Covid”, and Covid is a contributor to one’s death because it caused additional problems, and one may have survived if not for the additional problems brought on by Covid, is that really different than dying “from Covid”? Seems like you are really searching hard for a rationalization.


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There is a lot of “if’s” in your statement changing the narrative of the original post


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Not searching at all, and no question in my mind whatsoever.

Way too many deaths are being formally recorded as COVID deaths using a standard not previously used.

Terminal cancer patients who were end-stage and caught a cold in their last days were never in the past listed as having died from head colds. Murder - suicide victims who had the flu, were never listed in the past as having died from the flu. Someone run over by a bus was never in the past listed as dying from anything other than being run over by a bus.

But today, if during the autopsy they determine you test positive for COVID, nothing else matters, you will be recorded as a COVID death.

So in my mind it is an inexcusable tragedy and an injustice that anyone who is end-stage with terminal cancer should be listed as a COVID death. Cancer patients endure so much that in is unthinkable you would simply chalk up their death to COVID, only because they caught COVID in their last days.

Dont they at least deserve to have us say they put up a hard fought battle against cancer and fought it until they were weakend by COVID allowing the cancer to overtake them. No clearly that would not serve the current need to make COVID the most horrid medical event since the black plague. Sorry as a COVID survivor I will be the first to say it was awful, but my suffering cannot compare with what I have seen any average cancer patient suffer.

I will fully acknowledge that there are many COVID patients who were even worse off than me (and I was in a really bad way when I had it) but compared to what I have seen every cancer patient I have even known suffer, COVID is not comparable.

I hope that is reasonably clear,,,

This subject is really growing annoying to the point of being really dysfunctional. Its a bit like the celebrity worship and obsession we have in America, but where real life matters are now being overshadowed by fantasy and infatuation with the morbid.

Let’s do that

https://i.insider.com/5ef234caf34d05...jpeg&auto=webp

It's kind of silly that when someone you generally agree with spills thousands of words, you thank him repeatedly, even when many of those words are obviously wrong, and when I borrow one of his words in response, all of a sudden you're Merriam Webster.

XCR wrote the predicted "apocalypse" did not happen. This was obviously wrong--what happened is much worse than predicted based on number of deaths. Go back and look at 2020 predictions or even predictions from June of this year.

Cancer, heart disease, and diabetes have all taken a terrible death toll on this country and most of our families. If I had to chose, I'd rather covid than any of those. But this is a false choice, we can't choose.

Also funny that you mention flu deaths. COVID's killed something like 10X of a really bad flu year. I'm pretty sure you told us last year, or at least thanked someone who did, that COVID is no worse than the flu. You might want to move off of this now that the data are in

Now compare to previous years flu deaths prior to Covid


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ok - listed below from the CDC (a total of 28,000 deaths in 2018/2019 flu season)

and as far as I know, doctors or medical examiners list the cause of death, not all the other ailments the person may have had... If someone is on their last days with Parkinson's... and gets run over by a car... that is the cause of death, not the Parkinson's... same with Covid... just because someone has stage 4 cancer with maybe months to live... if they get Covid and are being treated for it, and they die from the associated respiratory complications... Covid is the cause of death... they didn't die "with it"... they died "from it"

It is still a beautiful time on the lake, went for a (short) swim yesterday! -PIG

Read the chart carefully.

It is saying,
If you get the Flu and you are over 65 the odds of dying is about 1 in 120.
If you get COVID and you are over 65 the odds of dying is about 1 in 10.
If you get COVID and you are over 75 the odds of dying is about 1 in 5.
If you get COVID and you are over 85 the odds of dying is about 1 in 3.

Yeah, it's just like the Flu.

Note: This is before vaccines.

Yes, people die of complications from COVID because your body can't cope with it's current issues and COVID.

Most people that are listed as dying from the flu are really dying prematurely from complications caused by it... pretty much the same as covid. Because covid is new, the population doesn't have a lifetime of built in resistance to it. The early predictions was as stated. The concept was that if all 330 millions of Americans were to be infected, we would lose roughly 2 million. That would place it at about a 6/10ths mortality rate... something current infection rates bear out.
With a very high R Naught, the lack of mitigation would also result in more deaths due to the strained health care system, something that also became reality in certain areas of the country.

It is really a waste of time for them to discuss because any mandate will not be voted on by the population, and most of the population has immunized and will not feel compelled to concern themselves with those that choose not to.

Lost time is real, hospitalization isn't free. Even when it comes to flu these are big ticket items.

Getting a flu shot cost a couple bucks, lying in an ICU bed for a couple days cost thousands. Lost time results in overtime to the employer. Between overtime and rising insurance premiums... employers will need to balance out the cost to their companies, so it really is a mute discussion.

This forum have anything else to discuss besides for this way overplayed topic? We get it, some of you are petrified to leave the house as you’re going to 1000% die if you get it according to some, and the other half don’t care are all…ok so we’ve established that. Check mark.

Let’s go back to enjoying the lake. Heck I’d even take some miserable NIMBY posts over Covid at this point.

Now lets compare flu deaths to deaths FROM COVID, not the the CDC numbers of deaths of people WITH COVID. Then you will see a startling difference.

I do not intend to debate why they are listing people who died with COVID in the way we normally list deaths from other causes, but we must acknowledge that the current COVID death count is not the same as we use for other types of deaths we track.

And when we look at the numbers (when you can find them) of actual deaths FROM COVID, they are much lower than deaths of people WITH COVID.

In the end, most of this is pointless and for average citizen, then numbers serve NO legitimate purpose except to scare you. (someones goal)

This COVID conversation need to stop, and people need to move on.

Practice common sense in all you do, get vaccines if its right for you, and stop all the stress over everything that will kill you as there are countless ways to die. Drinking too much water will kill you, drinking contaminated water will kill you, and the list is literally endless.

Its time for the COVID mandates to end, the media coverage to end, and fear to end, and its time for people to live and not in fear.

ATB

The mandates are not going to go away.
We will all just have to adjust to whatever the mandates cover in some way or another.

Or we don’t. This isn’t Russia (or is it?).

Resilience
 

In the Lakes Region, the restrictions are few, but that dirty old mask at the bottom of your pocket still comes in handy once in a while. Until the threat is passed, you DO have to comply with certain mandates. You won't be going into a medical facility or airliners without a mask. Some schools and employers mandate masks and/or vaccines as a condition of attendance or employment. Some businesses close for a while after an outbreak. The freedom to be a potential health risk to others is higher in the US that in most countries, but exercising that freedom comes with restrictions based on the freedom of others. Is this Russia? Not at all. Russian influence has been pretty successful in using misinformation to manipulate public discussion, but vaccine and mask mandates are as American as apple pie.

I have a huge problem with the Feds mandating a medical procedure... this is such a slippery slope!

Woodsy

Schools have long required vaccinations. Is this any different? If states were issuing the mandates, would that make it acceptable? Also, if a business requires its employees to be vaccinated, is this ok?