Global Warming
 

This Citizen's Article attributes the lack of ice this winter to global warming. Sad to think of what implications this may have for the future.:(

Global Warming
 

Oh my, look at the upside, if this is true it will be a longer boating season.:D

Yet this week's temperatures are an average of 10 degrees lower than usual?

If it get real warm we'll be catching fish like this:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports...-bn20bass.html

Got to just love these "global warming" people...

So I guess the globe has not been warming at all since the last ice age? These thing occur naturally and if you look far enough back in history, IE millions of years ago, say around the time of the dinosaurs, the world was a very tropical place. So what was it back then we could blame global warming on, last I knew there was no such thing as an internal combustion motor. Darn tree huggers.

Hot air - they could not keep their mouths closed, then, either... :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

They should try selling Global Warming to the people in Grand Island, Nebraska with their 21" of new snow.

National Geographic.com has a short article called Arctic Ice Isn't Refreezing in the Winter, Satellites Show. "For the second year in a row a large amount of Arctic sea ice did not refreeze during the winter as it normally does, a team of scientists reports. This trend may indicate an overall shrinking of Arctic ice cover due to rapid global climate change."

I'll agee that global warming can also occur naturally - but this is believed to have only happened after things like massive volcanic eruptions, or getting hit with a very large meteor. Man has now "progressed" to the point where we can now create natural desasters on our own.

I wonder what they were blaming the early ice out back in March 28th of 1921....."The sky is falling, The sky is falling"

Last winter, people were teasing a politician for having a speech on global warming in NYC when it was -9F. The warming people said don't confuse weather with climate. But when we get a freak hurricane season or a warm winter it's always caused by SUV's.

1) Is the planet warming? Maybe a little, based on 150 year old weather reports.

2) If yes, is humanity causing the warming? Not at all clear, but maybe a little.

3) If yes, can we do anything to stop it? No (everyone agrees)
Slow it? Maybe a little with massive reduction in quality of life or world population. Even Kyoto only promises the tiniest reduction in the upward temperature trend.

4) Is the cure worse than the disease? Most likely.

A Global Summer
 

It is spring in New Hampshire. The ice is melting in the lake, but yet it is below freezing outside. How can this be? If you stand back and take the long term view, you realize that by July, a return to winter or even spring will be a silly question. The ice will be gone, and it will be hot.

The earth is has been experiencing a global spring since the glaciers left New England, and now the earth is approaching a global summer. The ice caps are melting, Greenland is calving into the sea, glaciers in many places are melting at increased rates, the permafrost in Alaska is melting, sea levels are rising, and so on. Even the ice caps on Mars are melting. That is the evidence. The potential causes are many, including man, sunspots, orbit within our galaxy, and other causes yet to be determined. Figuring out the cause is interesting, but it leads to the blame game, and no country (especially the USA) wants to be held responsible for picking up the tab. The costs of the impact of climate issues during the next several hundred years will be huge. The earth entered global spring before humans were a factor. Did the industrial age speed up the onset of global summer by 5 years? By 100 years? By 1000 years? Good question, but I doubt there is any stopping it now.

We experience the transition to spring and summer every year, so have a good idea what is coming next at the lake. Our theories about what will happen next in the transition to global summer is still a guess at best. Scientists believe that over time, the earth has been encased in ice more than it has been warm like it is now. There is also evidence that once global climate changes start, they move quickly from one stable state to another. The evidence suggests that we are in a "move quick" period. This is similar to what we will experience at the lake in a few weeks as the ice melts, or those 3 days in May when the leaves just POP out. There is no going back. We can only look forward into the next cycle - and that is going to mean some changes. The past few weeks of cold weather have delayed what we thought might be a record early ice-out - but it won't matter. Massive human energy put into delaying the global summer would likely do just the same - delay but not stop the global summer from coming.

If we are in a transition stage now - we will see extremes for the next decade or so, as new patterns will emerge. One short-term pattern that seems to be emerging is that the snowstorms are more frequently south of the lakes region, rather than from the lakes region north. Our winters are milder, our falls are later, our springs are earlier. That pattern could last the next 30 years, or it could change next year. We could zip through Global summer in a decade and enter a new ice age. The only thing that is certain is that the climage is changing and will continue to do so.

More energy should be put into understanding what is happening, what will happen, and how to deal with what is coming next. Assigning blame to humans, is like blaming your neighbor's bubbler for an early ice-out. It had impact, and it matters locally for a short period of time, but in the long run, it doesn't matter much.

Let me qualify this statment by saying that I do not consider myself to be a tree hugger as it would normally be defined. I drive an SUV that gets ashamedly bad mileage, especially when I have my roof rack on. I am also a registered, and in all but a few rare circumstances, a voting Republican. But I do consider myself a lover of nature and the natural beauty that NH is so lucky to have alot of. Many of you are correct that the world has experienced many changes in temperature trends. However, anyone with a basic education in geology and global climate change is aware that in following these trends, it is very important to look back over millions of years, not the difference between 1921 and 2006. The changes that have taken place in the last hundered or so years have been much much much more rapid than the changes that changed landscapes on the earth hundreds of thousands or millions of years ago. To outrightly dismiss global warming is, in my opinion, and that is all this is, a little irresponsible to future generations. Both for those interested in global warming, and those convinced that its not happening, I'd really suggest auditing a geology class that deals with global climate change at a local college. During my undergrad years, I found it pretty refreshing from political science, and as a current law school student, I would probably find just about anything refreshing from property and contracts. :rolleye2:

I don't think there is much of an argument that we have global warming based on observations from the last 150 years.But therein lies the problem.Some would blame it on man and some would say it's nature.How you can say this is all man made with such a small sample when the earth has had freeze thaw cycles for eons is beyond me.I do think we have some impact but how can it really be measured?LG makes some good observations.Looks like another topic that will stir up the pot again!

Sorry, I'm not buying Global Warming, at least with the data and the crowd presented so far. There's an interesting web site and this is just two of many articles on the subject.

http://www.junkscience.com/GMT/EDW.htm
http://www.junkscience.com/GMT/1stMonth.htm

Bottom line is there is no simple answer. Yes this was a warmer winter (I think) but not the warmest. I read somewhere that this was like the 5th warmest winter on record with the warmest one around 1880. Anyway if you do fervently believe in Global Warming, I suggest you stop driving your car, disconnect from the grid and do not heat or cool your house (yes even burning wood is detrimental supposedly). Lead by example.

Don't lose any sleep over this issue. By the time it's tropical in New Hampshire (or even close) anyone reading this forum now will have been dead for about 500 years!!!:eek:

If we stopped using every internal combustion engine in the world tomorrow....it would have no effect on global warming when compared to the carbon dioxide caused by rotting vegetation.
Now,I'm feeling guilty for warming up my truck on cold mornings

Is the planet warming?
Just one degree increase (Celsius °) has a huge effect! It's already being seen at Mount Kilimanjaro and Glacier National Park. Something like 90% of Earth's glaciers are retreating, and nobody denies that the oceans are rising.

Is Humanity causing it?
We've taken half of the sun's energy that's been stored under the Earth for a billion years and transformed it into heat in less than 200 years.

(Like peat and coal, oil is fossil plant life—forget the dinosaur part.)

Is there anything we can do to stop it?
Emphatically YES! Twenty years ago, when this issue was first envisioned, there were several cures suggested.

The most intriguing one involved placing a rotating reflectorized mylar spiderweb-like wheel into space between Earth and the Sun. The problem was that how—and when—do you remove it?

Should there be concern?

Depends:

1) Mother Earth is very resilient: One study indicated that Earth was once covered in ice—a snowball. In the Cosmos, that is a death sentence for a celestial body, as nearly all a sun's rays are reflected back into space.

2) There are indications that the rate is increasing; otherwise, we and Mother Nature can just "take the ride". Some inhabited island-countries in the Indian and Pacific Oceans may become uninhabitable in our lifetimes. OTOH, new islands are being created in our lifetimes.

3) In 1999, Popular Science magazine stated, "Global Warming is a fact": They're not a sky-is-falling publication.

First, we should acknowledge Global Warming as fact.

Sorry Aps,

Whenever anyone says words like "fact" to describe theories I begin to worry. "I remember" :laugh: the experts used to talk about carbon dioxide emissions causing global COOLING and how we were going to cause the next ice age. I also remember predictions of the swine flu epidemic, and how we were going to run out of oil in twenty years (by mid 90's).

The Mann hockey stick data used to prove Global warming is seriously flawed.

http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/res...te.fall04.html

Once again, if you really believe in Global Warming, which many people do, then stop driving your car(s), in fact permanently disable them so no one else can drive them either and stop using any fossil or organic energy that produces "greenhouse gases". There are enough of you that if you all did this and you are correct, we should see the results in 20 or 30 years. In the mean time don't bankrupt the rest of us.

Drive on
 

I subscribe in the theory that dramatic global change is underway - specifically, the theory of a continued warm up followed by a rapid cool down. However, I do not subscribe to the theory that ceasing the use of organic fuel would turn around the problem in 20 or 30 years - or ever. In my view, the tipping point has already been passed. To use an old expression, there is no sense in closing the barn door once the horse has run away. I encourage oil consumption, and hope that our civilization moves past the fossil age as quickly as possible, and on to what ever energy source is next.

I guess I'm not convinced there is a problem at all. Weather patterns are cyclical and affected by things like El nino and La nina. This does not amount to climatic change. Glaciers have been receding for thousands of years. It's only very recently that we have had satellites to observe Arctic and Antarctic ice, no one knows if these remote bays freeze over every year. "Subscribe in the theory" is a good way to put it, leaves open the very real fact that it may be wrong.

Little Ice Age
 

:) :) Has anyone out there ever read or studied the Little Ice Age? In ran from 1300 to the the mid 1800's. It seems the world climate runs in cycles. Maybe if we wait long enough it will cycle back to another Little Ice Age but than again its been unseasonably cold here in New Jersey.

The sky is failing, we will all get the bird flu, New York City will be under water....don't worry be happy

Just FYI, on Wednesday's (3/22) NPR show "Fresh Air" there was a scientist who used to come down on the side of Global Warming is bunk, until he started to research it.

An interesting show for anyone who cares to listen, One of the more interesting points he made that surprised me, was that in the weeks following 9/11 when there was no air traffic over the U-S, the temperature in key cities actually dropped and it plays a role in Global Warming! Why?

I'm sure it's archived. :D

Link to "Weather Makers"
 

Is Tim Flannery the scientist you heard? If so, here's a link to the online article, as well as an excerpt from his book.

'Weather Makers' Seek to End Climate Debate

Thanks for the info, Airwaves. I found the first chapter of his book very interesting.

Does this mean that we may not be able to use our super turbo-charged bed on skiis to defeat the Alton Bay Christian Conference Center in the infamous Bed Race in our life time???
:confused:
McD

Alternative power
 

No, it just means we have to use an alternative fuel. People talk about hydrogen, perhaps we can use that :D Just don't ask where the H2 comes from :eek: Personally I think we should use Mexican food, beans and Magaritas, certainly been know to give me gas ... :laugh:

Too bad all the hot air generated during the HB162 debate (both sides now) couldn't have been harnessed, it would have powered New Hampshire for a year....:emb:

Yes, it was an interview with Tim Flannery!

Give me a break.You really don't believe that statement do you?Think about what you are saying.Planes not flying in the US,which constitutes about 1% of the earth would make the temp rise during that week?How could you possibly take a measurement taken over ONE week and conclude that it must be the planes not flying that influenced it?Temps fluxuate all the time.If this guy was serious,I would avoid any of his research.

Now thats funny... :laugh: :laugh:

Of course then we would be debating a where to put the wind farm to harness all the hot air! They would probably start with taking my house by eminent domain! :laugh: :laugh:


Woodsy

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction
 

Thousands of jet aircraft engines on at any one time in the US translates to many thousands of hot air generators constantly pumping out hot air in and over our cities. Can all these heat pumps add to a slight increases in overall temperatures? It makes sense to me.

Volcanic ash could be a visual example of how the atmosphere can be influenced. The ash cloud does not dissipate quickly. It travels hundreds of miles as it slowly spreads out. Artificial heat from jet engines can work the same way.

Every high school grad knows that for every action there is an equal but opposite reaction. Picture all the mega-tons of force pushing against the earth to launch the space shuttles, rockets and to a lesser extent jet planes. They all generate thrust by pushing against the earth, what is the equal and opposite reaction? Very slight variations in the rotation and/or axises of the Earth. Since they are cumulative, add them up and you just might find that we are changing the way our planet rotates around itself and the sun. Result: Climate change and global warming.

Global warming is real. Buy your great great (x125) grandchildren ocean front property on an Arizona mountain top today.

To answer Maxum's question, global warming during prehistoric times was caused by dinosaurs expelling methane due to massive flatulence. I read once that cows give off enough methane to influence the green house effect.

Back in the late 40's, scientists were so concerned with the Earth's COOLING, that they were investigating possible ways to enhance melting of the polar ice caps (e.g. spread dark soot over the ice). And that was after scientists 80 years prior to that had been concerned about the Earth's WARMING....

It's all a cycle, perfectly natural, and of such massive proportions us little old humans have little or no impact on it.

Don't you have that backwards?

The criss-crossing of commercial air traffic's wispy "contrails" reflect the sun's energy back into space, just as those "wispy" cirrus clouds do. When the contrails disappeared post-9/11, the Earth should have warmed up!

High-altitude air traffic could be "covering for" our Energy used on the ground (including nuclear energy and the burning of fossil fuels). I don't think anyone can deny burning fuels isn't "warming".

Among theories, I "believe" in both Global Warming and Darwin's Theory, even as quoted here. Really, though, they are both effectively Fact. On Darwin, ask your medical doctor: He will have taken a "Comparative Vertebrate Anatomy" course among his pre-Med required classes.

Aside from dramatic technological intervention (such as the previous gossamer-mylar-umbrella), there's nothing mankind can do to "un-bankrupt" your business, should you be dependant on gasoline and oil. (Abundant coal gives the U.S. much more time).

The latest, most well-thought-out, and most excellent, theory (The ApS Theory) :) is that we are, indeed, heading into a long-overdue Ice Age.

Civilization is only temporarily slowing "The Approaching Cold of Millennia" with relatively large amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, though sometimes—like burning fuel to make contrails—working at cross-purposes.

I'm putting this kind of money on it:

http://home.earthlink.net/~farfrumho...s/twocents.gif


:emb:

Good Article
 

For all you non-believers, here is a summary from the most recent issue of Time Magazine...

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/03/26/coverstory/index.html

I think it gives a fairly nice summary of what is going on. I encourage everyone to check it out.

But I wasn't talking about business, I was talking about us, we the citizens. The liberal braintrust and others always look to business to fund its social experiments, what they don't get is that business just passes these extra expenses onto their customer. Who is the customer? Why it is almost always you and I. If the business can't pass on these added expenses, then they go out of business.

Your scientific prowness is exceeded only by your modesty. :rolleye2:

We aren't the only cause
 

As much as many have come to believe that we are the main cause of global warming, many climatologists are looking at an age old cause - solar output. While mankind's activities are a contributing factor, the variations in solar output have a far greater impact on Earth's climate.

Just a reminder - Earth's icecaps have been melting for the past 6,000 years. It is not a recent event. The rate of melting hasn't been constant.

One article I ran across said that something like 36 cubic miles of ice melt in Antartica every year. At that rate it will all be gone in...let's see...about 194,000 years.

Government's fault...
 

Still, global warming is fact.

In a warming cycle, there are 6 Billion of us setting forests on fire for agriculture, igniting underground coal deposits, burning grasslands, igniting oilfields, heating homes, illuminating the night skies, "flaring" gas, "over-transporting", and cutting forests to assist the progress of lightning-caused fires and the "usual" volcanoes. (Excepting nuclear power generation, all increase carbon dioxide levels, making a "heating loop" for Mother Earth).

Should we be in a cooling "cycle" instead, this may only be a 200-year "blip" of warming. A Winnipesaukee shed, built near me post-war, had 2x6s on 12-inch centers.

(For the snow load—who knew?)

Satellites monitoring the oceans' heights and "computer-modeling" have changed they way we look at weather and climate.

Of course, government grants to universities keep things hopping, too!

:)

If I recall, and it's been a week now since I heard the piece, the earth's radiational heat is reflected off clouds, contrails, etc and bounces back toward the ground helping to keep us warm, especially at night.

It's most noticable during the winter, the temperatures are lower on clear nights than on cloudy tonights during similar weather systems because the earth's heat is lost on a clear night with nothing to reflect it back.

You're local TV weatherdude calls it "radiational cooling". I was surprised to hear that there is enough air traffic over the US that would have had a radiational cooling effect when it wasn't there suddenly.

The type of clouds that would prevent the sun's rays from reaching and warming the earth to begin with would be something you'd find after catastrophic volcanic eruption or in the extreme, a nuclear winter.

The cloud debate
 

First the article orignally mentioned by Airwaves only stated that increased differences between night and day temperatures were noted in the 3 days post 9/11. The author (David J. Travis, University of Wisconsin) made no conclusions as to whether the net effect was overall warming or cooling. Second the effect of contrails (and cloud cover) is to both reflect sunlight back into space (thus decreasing the Earth's temp) and to block IR from the ground and subsequently reradiate it back (thus increasing the Earth's temp). I've yet to see any definitive article stating which effect dominates; the numbers presented for both effects are within 1-2 % of each other. One report estimated that contrails would effect the Earth's temperature by 2050 but that made some ambitious assumptions concerning the growth of air traffic. http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/prrl/prrl9919.html

The effects of clouds (rather than contrails) is hotly debated right now. I don't know of anyone who claims that existing models for clouds are accurate.

Another sign of global warming????
 

TIME Story
 

Read this week's TIME magazine cover story -- a real eye-opener on the global warming front.