Ice-Out 2008
 

This is your official Ice-Out Thread....once again we begin the watch until the lake is free of ice. The Ice-Out page is up at www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

This has been a terrible year for snowmobiling on the lake.... I am sorry that the Babes on Sleds' snowdancing was too successful.

Please let me know here or email rattlesnakecam@comcast.net if you want to upload a daily or weekly picture from some part of the lake. I will create a space for you and directions on how to upload.

The recent rains filled in a lot of potholes on the lake and left open water up to 12" deep with ice below.

So... what are your predictions for Ice-out this year... early, late, or normal.

Please check out the Google Ads and other ads on the various Winnipesaukee Websites... they help keep our sites free to you.

Here's to a great new liquid season!!
IG

:coolsm:

Are we of the opinion that the "out" process has begun????

BT

I say early for sure, lots of water on the ice now and certainly not the thickness/setup that we had last year. Certainly plenty of snow- I heard there is 3-4 feet on my deck at Mark as of Saturday.

I had guessed the 18th but my gut tells me sooner. Not as early as 2 years ago, but somewhere in between the last 2.

Only the lake knows for sure
 

This thread starts around this time each year.... sometimes a little earlier... It is March... it will get warmer... this thread might be slow for a little while, but it will get very active shortly!!! How is Sebago


IG

Where's that cool ice-out cam that posts the (almost) daily shots pointing toward a gas dock? I seem to remember Silver Sands or something...

Silver Sands
 

Yes, Grant that is Silver Sands... they do not have their 2008 page up yet... as soon as they do, I will link to it... I love watching that page.

A little secret: If you go to the ice-out page and hover over the white space under the link for DRH's Ice-Out Page, you will find the link to Silver Sands' 2007 page.

IG

Nice of you to ask...
 

Sebago Lake is still mostly frozen although the Main Bay didn't lock in until Feb 22nd. There are many areas that are not/never were safe but plenty that are such as the "Station" in Standish and Jordan Bay in Raymond. In all the years that I have followed it and made comparisons, Winnipesaukee and Sebago have "ice out" within days of each other.

( Secret: IG used to come to Sebago many years ago before her beloved Rattlesnake)

BT

maybe a differernt process
 

This year, there are some different processes eroding the lake ice, other than direct warmth-on-ice. Today on a south-facing shore I saw the sun had melted away all the snow on an exposed part of the shore, and the resulting meltwater had flowed into the lake, eroding the ice right at that spot.

I would also guess that weakening will occur as the flow gets going from all the meltwater we'll have soon... runoff in, dam water out...

Since we are in an active weather pattern there is also good chance that a storm will take it out, like last year. Had it not been for the April 16 storm with its 64-mph wind gust (sustained at 45 mph for a couple of hours), last year's ice would've lasted a lot longer I think. It got busted up by force and 80-degree temps melted the pieces a few days later.

I think that the end of March into April will end up being a bit colder than normal. This just might delay ice out. Heck, I hit 8* at my house last night.

Ice quality
 

This year's ice formation was different than usual. I don't think we got the solid thick black ice that forms the base and takes longer to melt. The ice also has layers of snow that may melt more easily than the more dense stuff..

Remains to be seen... I could be wrong, but I think the melt will be fast. It may be cold now... but the sun is high and we have that extra hour at the end of the day...

This is always an exciting part of the year for me..

IG

The ice formed completely from snow this year, as opposed to last year's 'black' ice. It was December's snows that started to freeze the lake over beginning on the 3rd. "Snow ice" is not as high quality as "Black ice" because it's flaky and has lots of air pockets in it. Then it kept snowing on top of it, and snow is actually a very good insulator so it kept the ice from attaining the quality it had last year when it froze long before we got a good dumping of snow. Daylight Saving Time won't do anything to melt it, because while DST made sunrise & sunset an hour later by our clocks, the length of time between sunrise and sunset is still the same.

IG, I wasn't sure if you were serious or just kidding around, but since a few people have asked me seriously about that in person ("will the extra hour of daylight help to melt all this snow?"), I figured I'd clarify it for anyone else who's seriously wondering. DST does the same exact thing as if we just told all the schools and workplaces to begin & end daily operations an hour earlier, but that would have a different psychological effect on us. In effect, we're going to work/school an hour earlier than we were last week but the clock change makes us rave about the 'longer' afternoon instead of complaining about having to wake up an hour earlier. The government's rationale behind the earlier DST is that afternoon daylight is more useful to us than morning daylight, so by having us do all our work an hour earlier in the day they're hoping we'll spend more time outdoors in the afternoon instead of consuming electricity indoors. Morning isn't a peak energy-usage time, but afternoon usually is.

Interestingly, the ice has made more "growth-booms" in the last couple of cold nights than I've heard all winter. Might be that the rain storm killed all the insulating fluff on top, for the first time all winter.

The underlying water seems to be a degree or 2 warmer than last year. Last year on the 9th of March water going over the dam was 33 degrees. This year it has remained a consistant 35 degrees. (This is a mix of shallow and deeper water.) As CLA said water running over the ice or on top of the ice has the same erroding effect as it has on rock or dirt. There also is no frost in undisturbed areas. This will cause the snow pack to melt from below once temps remain above freezing for longer periods. The snow will leave much the same way frost leaves the ground from the bottom up. Check Black Cat water temps at 2 ft and 10 ft both are above 32 degrees. Relatively warm runoff will increase water temps below the ice rapidly. My guess the first week of April we'll be boating. I got in 3 days on the lake before official ice out last year thanks to the Noreaster!!

Link to the Ice Out page (Silver Sands)
 

A Snake-Eyes Easter Egg? Very cool. Thanks.

an open lead
 

This afternoon a 2-inch crack opened up between Black Cat Island and Black Cat Shoals (FL 83). The shoals themselves opened up yesterday, just a foot or two surrounding the rocks.

While the ice otherwise remains plenty strong enough to support snowmobiles (they keep going by) the opening between the island and the shoals is usually the first visible step in the iceout process for the NW end of the lake. Once fully open, it provides the wind an access point to start ripping.

Thanks to the webcam operators
 

As we watch the progression of ice-out over the next few weeks please take a second to thank all of the webcam operators who make this possible for you. If you look at the ice-out page, and the webcams page and click on each image you will find that someone out there has taken the time and effort to show a piece of our area.

Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.) We can see the changing conditions frequently and assess the traveling possibilities.

I appreciate the willingness of all of the owners to allow their cams to be viewed from a webcams page and urge you to click on their ads once in a while to keep these cams free. If you visit a sponsor... mention that you saw their ad on that particular webcam...

Thanks everyone for your support and a special thank you to my fellow webcam operators.. and the Snake Eyes contributors....

Let's watch the ice melt!! :coolsm: (my non-lake friends think that I should not say that outloud.. sounds wacky!!)

IG

ps...I hope to adjust the exposure on Snake Eyes on Saturday.. My great friends will provide transport.... weather and lake conditions permitting.. thank them too!!!)

www.weirscam.com
www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm
www.rattlesnakecam.com/lakecams.htm
www.rattlesnakecam.com

Certainly a big thanks to you IG for being the inspiration for many more lake cams.Great job!

IG, thanks so much for the reminder to folks on how to support the cam sites. Even on a site with graphics like mine, no one should assume "this site is obviously all set for support." Since some have asked (privately), My site's design reflects a little knowledge of Photoshop and web design that I gained in college when I should've been studying other subjects (D'oH!)

As far as Moultonborough view is concerned, my WeatherCam is Moultonborough for all intents and purposes. It's true that the southern half of Black Cat sticks into Meredith but this view doesn't represent Meredith much at all - the town is on the other side of the lake from here, and isn't even visible. Most of Black Cat Island is in Moultonborough.

In the cam view, the right side includes Meredith, Gilford, and Alton while the left side is mostly Moultonborough (except for 5-mile island.) For details (and a visibility chart) visit the information section of the weathercam site.

Now about iceout... significant things have happened today. The Black Cat Shoals became much more open thanks to wind gusts of 42 mph. The crack between there and the island also became more evident and will soon be an open lead. When it becomes a couple hundred feet wide, iceout is usually within a few days... depending on weather. Wind will speed the process but extremely low temperatures (like this morning's) results in some reformation of the ice and overnight thickening.

The crack and open shoals can be seen easily in this cam image from this morning.

But if the 10-day forecasts are reasonably accurate, we're in for at least another week of cold (40's), damp, dark weather, with temps below freezing at night. I doubt we're going to see much change in the ice over the next week.

I suddenly agree it's thicker than it looks...
 

Around 6 p.m. I had an eye-opening as I spied a compact car riding between Black Cat and Beaver Islands. The car made its way along the MOUNT route all the way down to near Steamboat Island before turning and coming back, then heading in the direction of Center Harbor.

While the car was hanging out down by Steamboat, a snowmobile came by, not incredibly fast, and made the circle around Black Cat.

It's apparently thicker than it looks out there...

Apparently, so are the drivers! :laugh:

7 Cars and trucks in front of our house right now. Parked fairly close to one another. Must still have good ice in this part of Moultonboro.

My guess is they would be fishermen, my next guess is the know how thick the ice is :D

Right on both accounts.

Ice Out Prediction for 2008
 

I'm guessing it's going to be a 'normal' Ice Out, with it occurring sometime around Tax Day (April 15th). I'll even hazard a guess as to the time: 3:30PM.

The water temperature seems to determine ice-out more than most other indicators. If you look at the temperature history on this website you will see it is amazingly consistent in late March. We are on track and should see a degree increase sometime in the next 10 days! :coolsm:

Hey, Weekend Pundit!
 

In the "contest," I picked April 15th at about 2:30. I hope great minds think alike on this one.

Oh, and my guess was sent from Jersey. I actually won the ice out contest held by the "Main Street" newsletter in Alton a few years back. I randomly picked my son's birthday and that was the winner.

Didn't work after that, though.

nj2nh

East side of the lake
 

"Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.)"

IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large? :confused:

More on topic for this thread - ahve they started the annual "Ice Out" guessing contest? Historically April 20th is a good guess - a high percentage of ice outs around that day... time will tell.

Sebago Lake
 

IG and Blue Thunder,

I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead.

Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess.

A Maniac for Life,
Bill

Looks like tropical blue...
 

Looks can be deceieving because there has been car and sled traffic on this ice this past weekend, but the color scheme in this Black Cat WeatherCam image seems tropical. One thing to note is the presence of a lot of standing water on the ice adjacent to that crack between the island and the shoals. That's how it starts.

I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate? :confused: I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky?

Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though! :D

Go for it
 

I use copper.net for an isp and they have local phone numbers... most ips's do. The phone call is usually less than a minute, every ten minutes.

Bear Islander has a lot of information on setting up a webcam on his bearcam site. http://www.bearcam1.com/cam_info.htm

IG

Pepper surfaces!!
 

Well, there you are, woman. You have come up for air???

When the ice gets a dull gray color it is getting punky.

IG

I've apparently been trapped in blue ice and finally came up for air! :D

Hey Bill,
For clarification purposes, Island Girl's love for island living was forged by some stays on Sebago and Frye Island many years ago. She is and has been on Rattlesnake for some time now. I'm the outcast (some will say) over on Sebago, this being my 40th year of either vacationing or owning here. I do however, have a genuine interest in the NH Lakes region and try to participate in this wonderful forum for the greater good.

You're right, the water quality of Sebago Lake is unparalleled in New England and the boating here is a lot less hazardous than Winnipesaukee even though the lake is 45 square miles of water. I camped at the State Park as a kid and an adult and had a seasonal at Point Sebago for seven years.

Thanks for chiming in,

Blue Thunder

It's melting!!!!!!!!!!!
 

My drive around Alton Bay this afternoon revealed a LOT of standing water on top of the ice. A quick check of all the cams on the Ice-Out page indicates the same condition all over the lake, so today's warm air and sunshine is doing it's part. The ice is dwindling, slowly, but it is going! :D

another lead
 

Today another lead became evident, opening between Black Cat Shoals and Three Mile Island. Once it opens, it will form a water channel between Black Cat and Three Mile, with the shoals as a midpoint.

This is important because the strongest and most frequent wind in this area (NW and SE) runs perpendicular to where the lead is setting up (SW to NE). The wind will be able to widen the crack on both sides and tear the ice right out if we get a windy storm.

Also today, the surface temp at Black Cat WeatherCam went to 35 for the first time since ice-in. This was in response to the depth temp (10 feet) rising to 35 in the last 24 hours after remaining at 33/34 all winter. Both temperatures are now equal at 35. The water is quickly working its way toward its non-winter pattern in which the surface is warmer than underneath.

Tomorrow may be a minor set-back as snow falls on the water surface... this usually has a cooling effect that may result in some weak re-freezing of open areas.

Silver Sands page is up
 

I emailed Barry Uicker yesterday about his Silver Sands page and he emailed back to say it's up and running as of today. A lot of good info on his page. A big THANK YOU to Silver Sands Marina and Barry Uicker!

Blue Thunder

http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Feature...t_2008_ice.htm

Just in case you were wondering
 

Only 17 Days and 3 hours left until Ice Out:)

I think 17 days was about 9 days too long for ice out. There's 6" of ice and 19 inches of frozen rain soaked snow. By the looks of cracks and plates forming 2 days in the 50's and a good wind would turn it into a giant slurpie. Now all I have to do is dig the boat out.