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-   -   Ice Out 2015? (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18894)

Music Man 03-17-2015 03:09 PM

Ice Out 2015?
 
I thought I saw a thread a while back to collect guesses for this year, but can't find it. Searched on Ice-Out, Ice Out, even just 2015, didn't turn anything up.

Anyway, I'm thinking 3:30pm on 3/30/15, aka 1530 on 30 Mar 15.

ishoot308 03-17-2015 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Music Man (Post 241713)
I thought I saw a thread a while back to collect guesses for this year, but can't find it. Searched on Ice-Out, Ice Out, even just 2015, didn't turn anything up.

Anyway, I'm thinking 3:30pm on 3/30/15, aka 1530 on 30 Mar 15.

There will still be ice fishing going on then! :D:D:

JPC 03-17-2015 05:01 PM

2015 Ice Out
 
Guess were only accepted in the Month of February. I believe the Webmaster controls that link. If you want to look at it use this link.
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2015/

Blue Thunder 03-17-2015 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Music Man (Post 241713)
I thought I saw a thread a while back to collect guesses for this year, but can't find it. Searched on Ice-Out, Ice Out, even just 2015, didn't turn anything up.

Anyway, I'm thinking 3:30pm on 3/30/15, aka 1530 on 30 Mar 15.

Zero percent chance of ice out in 12 days....

chasedawg 03-17-2015 08:18 PM

2015 iceOut
 
This year may break another record for the lastest ice out. There is still 30" of ice thickness and the winds are howling tonight with wind chills in single digits. The temps have been on average 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Sorry to say the 30 day forecast is for below normal temps. We are talking about a very late ice out and late Spring and Summer. Normally this time of year ice is starting to melt down and break up. Not so this year.

chasedawg 03-17-2015 08:24 PM

Ice out
 
Music man best to add 45 days to your guess. It would be wonderful if you did win the iceOut contest. I would love to be boating in March instead of May.

Merrymeeting 03-18-2015 08:21 AM

While I am leaning toward chasedawg's view, remember that we were all predicting a record ice-out last year, then it happened in the blink of an eye. It can happen.

While there is no end in sight in the forecast, I don't think the ice is as strong as usual. Lots of snow on top of lots of slush for a good part of the winter. If the sun and temps ever cooperate, it could happen quickly, as it did last year.

My guess, a normal late April date.

bilproject 03-18-2015 08:53 AM

Suspect ice will fool us again
 
I was up last weekend and around bear island out to timber, 3 mile and 6 mile measured no more than 10 inches of ice. Top 3 inches is snow and runoff refreeze. once white snow cover from this past weekend is gone the sun is going to work on it fast. Once the big areas go then the bays and coves with 30 inches will go fast.

SteveA 03-18-2015 09:36 AM

Ya.. I was a little to optimistic with my April 9th date. :rolleye2:

Scott 03-18-2015 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting (Post 241737)
While I am leaning toward chasedawg's view, remember that we were all predicting a record ice-out last year, then it happened in the blink of an eye.

Yes. It's natural to focus on air temps since that's what we feel, but it's not what does the most damage.

Once you get into mid-late April, the longer days and sun peaking at 60 degrees above the horizon will destroy the ice regardless of air temp, especially with any wind to scour out the insulating layer of cold air just above the ice.

Ice out was on 5/2 in 2001 despite April being downright hot at times with several days ranging from 64-84 degrees.

For late ice outs, you'd want as many cloudy and calm days as possible. (Not that anyone wants that.)

thinkxingu 03-18-2015 02:43 PM

Hi! Can someone define "ice out"? Is that when there's no ice left or a certain percentage?

LIforrelaxin 03-18-2015 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thinkxingu (Post 241768)
Hi! Can someone define "ice out"? Is that when there's no ice left or a certain percentage?

Ice out is defined as when the M/S Mount Washington can make her normal route, traveling to the Ports of Center Harbor, Wolfeboro, Alton, Wiers Beach, and Meredith.

JMR 03-18-2015 03:52 PM

Will it ever come?
 
This time of year I am almost ready to put the ski's up and get ready for islandtime. I drove to the lake today, just to look around. One of the things I have learned to do is watch the lake cams and then cross my fingers. Who'd a thought a grown man would watch ice melt with such anticipation? Apparently grown old, not up, huh?

Merrymeeting 03-18-2015 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMR (Post 241772)
This time of year I am almost ready to put the ski's up and get ready for islandtime....Who'd a thought a grown man would watch ice melt with such anticipation?

The few years before I moved here full time, I thought I should be committed. I'd check the cams every 30 mins, looking for a change, and salivating about the next time I could be there. Had been coming since I could walk, and couldn't wait to be back.

Happy to say that having now been here full time for 3+ years, the feeling has not diminished.

PS: And btw, the mid-week skiing is wonderful...and cheap!

Pineedles 03-19-2015 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveA (Post 241752)
Ya.. I was a little to optimistic with my April 9th date. :rolleye2:

I picked April 9th too Steve. We are the Ying and Yang politically. Perhaps we can combine our power to force Mother Nature into a April 9th date still.:laugh:

gokart-mozart 03-19-2015 09:44 AM

Ice Out date
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by chasedawg (Post 241723)
This year may break another record for the lastest ice out. There is still 30" of ice thickness and the winds are howling tonight with wind chills in single digits. The temps have been on average 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Sorry to say the 30 day forecast is for below normal temps. We are talking about a very late ice out and late Spring and Summer. Normally this time of year ice is starting to melt down and break up. Not so this year.

If you had March 20 - you lose!

brk-lnt 03-19-2015 09:45 AM

Ice out has been cancelled this year, latest weather reports are that we'll try again for warm weather next year.

Music Man 03-19-2015 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chasedawg (Post 241725)
Music man best to add 45 days to your guess. It would be wonderful if you did win the iceOut contest. I would love to be boating in March instead of May.

Yeah, I was hoping for some mental heat to help things along...

(3:30 on 3/30 just sounded right...)

(and better than 6:30 on 6/30!)

;)

pjard 03-19-2015 07:18 PM

I am April 19th at 2:15 pm....not too optimistic, I wish I could change it to 2:30, then I'd have a chance!


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