Can anyone that is living on the lake everyday let us know how things are going?

Has the level dropped at all? I know when I was at our house on Saturday and Sunday it was pretty dismal!!

Just to see the amount of damage and docks underwater..... and I thought the floods in October were bad. That was nothing compared to this.

Anyway, if someone can keep us informed, I for one would be greatly appreciative!

We visited our boat at Fays yesterday and talked with other boaters. The boat was safe but the our pier had about 6 inches of water over it.

We were told that it'll be at least 2 weeks before things get back to normal boating conditions. Based on putting nails into pier posts at the water level and then watching the water level, some people said the Lake has risen this week.

While driving we saw many piers under water and no boats on the water.

The level is pretty much the same as it was when you were here on Sunday. You can track it yourself from this DES web site.

http://www.des.state.nh.us/rti_data/wein3_TABLE.HTML

Live here 24/7 . . .
 

As a full time resident, I'll tell you what I have seen. Yesterday was a bad day for those with an exposure to the northwest winds. The winds blew at 25-35 mph from Sunday night until some time last night. Right now they are blowing at 18 mph. Our shoreline is mostly large rocks that have been there since the glaciers left and covered with wild lowbush blueberries. The area that does not have the larger rocks took a real beating. The waves were large and debris went over our dock all day long. We did what we could to protect the shoreline and the root system of a very large pine tree at the waters edge. The level of the lake seems to be staying about the same. The dam outflow is probably equaling the inflow from the streams.

People with lawns, plantings and beaches at the waters edge will see significant damage. I'm very glad we have old rocks and blueberries, with their very tenacious root system.

Water Level Remains High
 

From what seen on DES website(s) the lake is holding firm even with the high discharge from Lakeport. Inflows are still exceeding outflow (dam). It's not hard to figure that even without any rain the high water will remain for week(s). I would not be surprised to see July 4th with high water levels based upon improvements (none) over the past 10 days....

General forecast, RAIN followed by WIND with a chance of SUN.... :confused:

Yes, it will be weeks. Elsewhere on the site, someone provided the rough calculation that even at full discharge, the best that can be expected is that it receeds by 1"/day. So, rough numbers, about 6"/week.

So it would take ~3 weeks to lower it by 1.5 feet to get it back to normal. This assumes no more rain. Unlikely.

Merrymeeting Lake has the same issues, and the outflow at the dam is maximized....flowing into Winnipesaukee. Similarly, the springs and streams that feed Merrymeeting are flowing at all time highs.

The good news is that things seem to have stabilized and we are starting to see a minor but encouraging drop. If we can keep major rain away for awhile and allow the ground to dry out, we should be back to normal in about 3 weeks.

1998 data confirms
 

The numbers below are pretty much confirmed by Bizer's historic data (graph). In 1998 it took the first two weeks of July to drop a foot from that record high at the beginning of July.

Evaporation
 

The lake will also evaporate... but I have no idea how long it takes to lower it 1" at what humidity... anyone? anyone?

IG

16 days
 

Well accoring to this place anyway ;) The calculation is so full of crude estimates and averages that I wouldn't place much confidence in it being representative of the lake right now but .... FWIW it seems that NH has an annual average pan rate of 33"/year or 0.09"/day. According to the reference lakes evaporate at 70% of the rate the measurement pans do, so that gives us 0.063"/day or about 15.8 days to evaporate an inch. Funny, "Mee" asked the same question this weekend. When I get some time this weekend I'll see if I can't get a better estimate for this time of year (just for giggles).

The Weirs gage is a bit high
 

The state web site which shows the lake level at the Weirs hasn't indicated much drop in the last few days, but that doesn't tell the whole story. In the calm water of this morning, the lake level is 1/2" lower at my dock than it was a few days ago. Another data point can be seen on the Pine Island cam. The dock in the picture is a bit more out of the water than it was, and is actually drying off a bit. Why is the sensor not showing the drop? Perhaps the constriction of the Weirs channel, and the fast flow through it, is causing the water to back up at the sensor, so it reads high.

Same here.

The sensor may also be affected by wind-effect.

sensor may be inaccurate
 

I think Lakegeezer is likely on to something. The Wiers Channel bottleneck likely kept the sensor from recording the true peaks in the main lake. It only records the water level in Paugus Bay. I did see a 1/2" to 1" drop at my dock on Cow Island while the sensor showed no change.

With regard to trying to figure out how fast it can drop and evaporation rates et al, I tried that a while back and gave up due to too many variables. The best indication is available on Bizers level charts. If you want to know best case, look for the steepest slope curve. It appears that during the 1984 and 1998 peaks, we got the best lake drop rate after, at about 6" per week. Don't know what the rain, wind, or temp conditions were that contributed to that, but that appears to be "best" case.

There is a definate constriction at the Weirs.The channel was running pretty fast on Sunday.Has anyone had problems heading downstream and maintaining steerage while heading to Paugus bay?

running the rapids?
 

I wonder if anyone can determine what the drop is between the two ends of the Weirs channel? I'm sure it's computable based on width, length, avg. depth, and current speed. Any river runners out there? Anyone float through with a GPS to get a current speed?

Weirs Channel bottleneck has negligible effect on the lake’s water level reading. The official site for recording the level of Winnipesaukee is just under the boardwalk at the Mount Washington pier (see photograph). An unofficial gauge is about 30 feet away and can be viewed by leaning out from the pier.

One cause of variation is seiche. A heavy wind can blow the water from Meredith to Weirs. When the wind stops, the “peak” can slosh back and forth between Meredith and Weirs. When the USGS had a minute-by-minute graph, one could see that the lake’s level would fluctuate as much as an inch with a cycle time of about 80 minutes.

The current in Weirs Channel primarily depends on the outflow at Lakeport. I estimate the current to be about 1 MPH for each 600 cubic-feet-per-second being released at Lakeport. Since about 2400 CFS are currently being released at Lakeport, I estimate the current at about 4 MPH (3.5 kts).
http://www.bizer.com/lwother/gauge_090805.jpg

Returning to normal
 

Much to my surprise, Merrymeeting is almost back to normal spring level. We've dropped close to 9" since Thursday night.

The dam is fully open, and the stream/spring inflows seem to be back to normal amounts. So I expect that the output from Merrymeeting will return to normal within a day or 2 which will mean the inflow to Winnipesaukee will be similarly reduced.