Long Duration Snow - New Years 2010
 

It is looking more and more like a sizable and long-duration snow storm hitting us tomorrow through Monday. The first shot of snow will be relatively light, 4" or so. However, the second wave is looking like the real deal, starting Friday night and lasting into Sunday night or Monday.

It looks like a upper level low will develop in the Gulf of Maine and collect lower level support. It should remain stationary and possibly retro-grade back to the west a bit while developing into a very deep low.

If it comes together the way I believe it will, we will be measuring the total snowfall in multiple feet across a very broad area including the lakes region. This is not completely locked in, but it is looking much more possible as time goes on.

R2B

Love It!!!!!
 

Thanks for the forecast, now we will hope that it follows your course.

Have any opinions on how windy it's going to be?

I think the wind will be low, almost calm, on Thursday and most of Friday. However, Saturday will be windy from the north or north-north-west, sustained 20 to 25 with gusts into the 30's. The winds will still be around into Monday, still from the north to northwest, but Saturday looks to be the day with the most wind.

This assumes my forecast of a cut-off low is correct. Mother Nature is more in control than anyone that forecasts.

Time will tell!

R2B

Thanks! Plan to spend the weekend riding the sled north of the notches and while lots of snow is great news, lots of wind can take the fun out of riding if the visibility stinks. Oh well we'll see what happens! I have heard anywhere from 20 to 40" is possible out of this storm, if it holds true that is insane!

Wind Wind......when will the wind STOP !!!!

It should be close to calm tonight. No idea when it will get calm if we get this storm.

R2B

Four-wheel drive ...
 

Looks like I'll be driving hubby's truck to work for a few days! :eek:

Welcome Back!!!!!!:)

R2B

Sooooo good to be here! :D

What has happened to CanisLupusArctos? He has been MIA for two months. Normally he would be all over a storm like this one.

I usually wait for his lead on storms like this because I have a very high regard for his opinion and he was the motivator of this section of the Winni Forum.

I cannot wait for the next run of the models. This storm in our area could very well happen, but it is not a complete lock. It is very interesting combination of weather systems for those of us that are really into the weather. Somewhere in northern New England, perhaps a large area of northern New England, is going to get a memorable event.

R2B

Whats your best guess for the Wolfeboro area reguarding snow fall amounts?

Thanks in advance

For those who are fans of CLA's reports, he posts an ongoing commentary on the weather at the Lake on his Facebook page. Right now he has over 440 "fans" that get his reports on their news feeds, sometimes several times a day.

I've asked CLA about pushing his Facebook feeds over to a Twitter account so I could include his live feed on this site. Maybe we'll see that in 2010.

I've also set up a Winnipesaukee.com page in Facebook to make it easier for FB members to find the site. Please click here and become a fan.

By the way, you do not have to be a Facebook member to view the FB pages mentioned here.

I have carrots and my snowman kit ready to go!

If the first wave of the storm hits NH the way its hitting CT right now then get ready to take some zamboni lessons.:laugh:

What's this current wave suppose to give the Lakes Region?

Very few meteorologists out there willing to give their total snowfall predictions through Monday...seems everyone is confused and gun shy!

Looks like light snow every day (Thursday-Saturday), with 1-3" depending on where you are. Saturday afternoon into Sunday is the wild card. If the storm moves west off the ocean and if it stays south enough - it looks like a good amount. Lots of ifs from the experts - but slippy roads throughout the holiday period seems to be a given. Its snowing lightly now and the roads are covered with a skim of snow.

So far this storm has been good for Winni's ice but not so good for the area snowmobile trails. Probably have about 4" of snow in Meredith and that's counting Thurdays accumulation. We'll see what happens over the next 48 hours...

What snow....where's the snow?

It's 20 relatively warm degrees and windy here in Waterville Valley and the town's Bombardier diesel sidewalk snowblower just chugged past, looking very underwhelmed by maybe three inches of light snow. For a three day storm, that works out to one inch per day, very underwhelming for a ski area town with an army of snow removal equipment all driving around & look'n for some snow
to plow.

Tomorrow, Monday, is look'n like a good twofer ski day at both Gunstock and WV. Believe it is 2/$56 Gunstock, and 2/$67 WV. Judging by the small holiday crowds this past Christmas week, lift tickets are too high priced for many skiers.....where did all the skiers go?

Or, for the rest of the season, M-F's are $309 Gunstock, and $509 WV.

Well, there appears to be zero accumulation since my last post. Areas of around a foot of snow south and north of us, but not even 5" here. Looks like NW Vermont was the big winner with Burlington/S. Burlington/Essex getting about 26".

C'mon down!!
 

You want some snow??? C'mon down to the North Shore of Mass, I'll load you up with all you want. Beautiful powder, 12" and counting.....

BT

snow
 

Thought I would wake up this am and have to get the snowblower up and running-but here in Meredith we didn't get any snow overnight on Saturday. Here it is Sunday at 1:15 p.m. and it is just starting to come down now-looks like we will have to wait and see what happens

A non-event
 

This has been a non-snowstorm for the lakes region. Less than an inch for the day, and a little over 3 inches for the storm. There has been a great deal of snow on the northern slopes of the White Mountains, and also well south and east of the White Mountains. But not in the lakes region.

We have been shadowed by the White Mountains the whole time. As storms have the counterclockwise circulation around them, Normally in coastal storms, we get the wind from the northeast. Then, as the storm moves from near Cape Cod to the Canadian Maritimes, we get the "backside" of the circulation, resulting in a northwest wind.

That normally shuts off our snowfall, while it continues in the northern White Mountains for a day or so.

We should have known this could/would happen, but we don't normally get shadowed by the mountains because typical storms don't back in from the ocean like this one did.

With this storm backing in from the Maritimes to the New England coast, we got the northwest winds on its backside the whole time. Snow bands passed over the White Mountains from north to south. Mountains tend to "wring" moisture out of clouds as the clouds pass over. This results in the weatherbeaten side (the "windward" side) of many mountain ranges being very green while the other side (the leeward side) gets much less moisture and is not so green. The effect is called "Shadowing" on the lee side. It's a shadow not of darkness but dryness.

So, we have a meteorologist in Burlington Vermont now reporting 32.9 inches of snow there. Several reports of 1-2 feet of snow in the White Mountains. The Boston area has a foot, with more on the way.

But not in the Lakes Region. The storm was backing in from the ocean -- opposite the normal direction of travel. The moisture feed has been north-to-south -- the backside of the storm's counterclockwise circulation. The snow bands have been getting all the life sucked out of them during their ascent of the north-facing slopes, reaching the lakes region with few snowflakes left to drop.

They've been re-generating south of the lakes region. But the lake is in the shadow of the mountains this time, on the leeward side.

Sorry about that! Still have the same hobbies, still a forum member.... but apart from that life's had lots of changes in '09. One of them was joining Moultonborough Fire -- spent the summer taking duty shifts, getting oriented, encountering lots of new faces and new experiences. They gave me the firehouse nickname "Groundhog" for always talking about the weather. In October, the NH firefighter 1 course came to the lakes region, so I signed up. It's still going. Outside of that, lots of those projects we all have.

For most of the summer the plan was to update the WeatherCam's facebook page (since that's quick) and keep moving, every time. As winter weather forces one to slow down and relax more, I look forward to being back here more, making more lengthy weather comments than I can make on the Facebook Feed. You should see my whiteboard. I still have it on my list to "Do weather records 2008 summary." :laugh: To that I can now add, "2009 summary." :laugh: Temptation, temptation, to pick up the remote control and flip channels. All the while it was in my head, "I gotta get back to forum posts..... uhhhhhh, tomorrow." Tomorrow is now finally here! Thank you for the kind comments!

CLA:

Welcome back and thanks for explaining why there was minimal snow in the Lakes Region!!! This was a crazy storm. I can't recall anything like it occurring before.

My first thoughts were: "Just like the Perfect Storm" which happened in October 1991. That one bombed out offshore, and then backed in from the Canadian Maritimes. It does happen. I can't recall it happening in winter before.

We came VERY close to an all-out blizzard, similar to '78, with this storm -- without knowing it. This thing spent more of its time offshore. But it still got stuck here for 2 or 3 days. It obviously had the power to dump 2-3 feet of snow, because that DID happen in parts of ME, NH, and VT, giving a solid foot of snow to a large part of Massachusestts, and at the same time, plowable snow to Rhode Island and Connecticut.

So, this took up a lot of space. It had a lot of moisture with it. There was enough cold air to keep it all as snow. It got very strong, with powerful winds. Like the Blizzard of '78, this storm also came during a "high" in the astronomical tide cycle, and its center lowered the air pressure over the ocean enough to create a bulge in the water ("storm surge") on top of that. Therefore, there was coastal flooding.

Long story short: This thing had everything it needed, and it put the pieces together. So why didn't we get a widespread Blizzard? Location, location, location. And timing. The Blizzard of '78 got its act together in highly organized fashion, as though it had attended a military academy for storms. Then it carried its mission out perfectly -- got stuck in "just the right place" to do what it did. This thing, by comparison, would've been yelled at, and made to do a few push-ups for being a little less organized than '78. It still got stuck for a similar period of time, but in a slightly different neighborhood of the ocean. It made for an interesting show of topographically enhanced (and reduced) snowfall, all over New England. It also brought the tidal floodng in places that wouldn't have flooded otherwise.

The moon is out now. Looks like boring weather, next few days. Sigh.