Lake Level this Year
 

So, as many of us are I am anxiously awaiting Ice-Out this year. Which unless we get a major cold snap of biblical proportions is probably going to happen very early this year. However I am very concerned about what this year could bring for lake levels. Normally there is lots of spring run off from melting snow, and the draw down of the big lake takes all that into consideration. The major melt off is not going to be what it normally is because haha there just isn't that much snow. Hopefully we will get some rain, which coupled with smart dam management will help fill up the lake. However I fear this years boating season could be hampered severely by low lake levels. As we all know, many boat ramps become unusable. As well many lake front home owners don't have enough water at there docks etc. to deal with a low lake situation all summer.

Luckily I have an extra dock section or two so if it got really bad I could always extend my dock. Desperate time call for desperate measures (please lets not argue the legalities of this we all know what they are). But I know most people can not, additionally if the low water starts causing problems at ramps it ruins things for day boaters, and some ramps have sharp drop offs...

Well hopefully I have given everyone something to think about and comment on....... A bad winter may lead to a not so great summer......

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You maybe correct and at this moment the lake may be where it should be, but the melt off is not up in the mountains where it needs to be. The story will be told a month to six weeks from now when the lake usually tops off. I don't believe it is going to this year.

It is only March 12. We still have 2+ months of spring, which usually brings plenty of rain. If on May 12 the lake is still low, then you might have a legitimate concern, but I don't think you need to worry quite yet.

Downingslanding
 

Looking at the DOWNINGSLANDING CAM the lake seems to be up. The old gas dock is just above the surface.

Yes with the recent rain the lake is up and right now we appear to be in good shape. However knowing some about water tables, long term effects of a bad winter etc. I still remain skeptical...

I believe Chip does indeed have the piece of the equation that we need to allow to unfold some. I believe the amount of rain fall in April, and May could indeed have a huge influence either way on future of the boating season and the lake level for the year.

The dam operators only have so much control.... when water is needed down stream they have no choice but to allow water to flow... I have been looking at more then just lake level data, I have been looking at river flows etc. believe me this winter and its lack of snow has a ripple effect.

All the rain we got this weekend and the other two rainstorms we had this winter are equal to like 5 or 6 feet of snow, so that translates to 60-72 inches of snow, plus the 50 inches have had of snow, there ya go, it's more moisture than the last two winters. Since the ground is frozen, it all went directly into the lake.

But with all the rain down in the southern part of the state I would think they have to slow the outflow at the dam.

Up 3.5 inches
 

since Friday....

Quite a jump in this graph

http://des.nh.gov/organization/divis.../graph2010.JPG

There may be "not much snow" around the lake shores but this has turned into quite a winter for elevations above 1500 feet. Randolph NH had 39 inches of snow in the storm 2 weeks ago, and more since. Wildcat Mountain has had something like 5 feet of snow in the last 2 weeks and another foot from this current storm. Mt. Major is looking very white right now. It's a great time to go skiing!

Sooner or later, that snow is going to melt and run downhill. The lake is now 5 inches below my approximate-full mark.

The lake has reached the full mark.
http://www.bizer.com/bztnews.htm#lakelevel

...and still rising.
 

The weather station has received 0.70 inch of rain today and there is more on the way. The mountains are also getting rain from this, so snowmelt is beginning to occur there. Expect the lake to continue rising.

By the growth on the rocks
 

The lake looks about full..

Eroding lake levels
 

The water flow at Lakeport dam today is over 1750 cubit feet per second, which is an emergency rate. The lake level is out of control again, at more than a foot above average for April 1. The level is 504.55 which is well above full lake (503.63), near a record high for this time of year (since 1982) and well above the planned limit for anytime during year (504.32). Typical for this time of year is 502.75 to 503.75. We are expecting heavy rain again this week and there is still snow in the higher elevations of the winny watershed. My beach is already eroding. Its a good thing that boat traffic is virtually nil. We could easily hit 505 by the end of the week - which should trigger a no-wake rule until the floods recede.

I like the no wake time of the year. You can go out for hours and barely move the fuel needle! :laugh:

I believe the last time we had a no wake condition it was posted "No Wake within 600 feet of shore". That was made interesting because many "bonehead" drivers had trouble with 150 ft and they still zipped by us at less than the 150 foot distance. No harm to us but it was wrong.

I remember it well.I was sitting talking to marine patrol about it while out in the Broads and there goes Captain Bonehead at about 60mph and the officer just shook his head and went off to educate him on what no wake means. And yes the fuel last quite awhile.

Lakegeezer I must correct you full lake is not "503.63" full lake is 504.32 feet above see level... just check the dam operation information on the DES website. As of tonight the lake is 504.53.... which is still with in the safety band the they publish of allowing the lake to fill to 504.80 feet during peak run off events.

I have been looking at a lot of the DES watershed data form many of the lakes and streams.... although there has been a significant amount of rain in a very short period of time which has cause many bodies of water to raise quickly. I have seen that all bodies of water have reacted and continue to react very quickly to the dam operations.

In short I don't believe we will spend very long with a full lake. As long as we can get a week or two of good warm weather the lake will come right down.

We All Understand Speculation...
 

However, if anyone has any control beyond Mother Nature Herself, I trust the dam operator's. They do an exceptional job, and there is more than enough weather involved here for them to work with.

I really wouldn't worry to much about it.


Terry
____________________________________

Mis-Cue—or Planned "Inconvenience"?
 

If this is another mis-cue by those dam people ( ;) )...
I'll get particularly irked. :( :mad:

:look: I'm generally happy to own an acre of "near-to-nature" lakefront property. :)

However... :rolleye2:

1) When the lake is over-filled, a great deal of forest duff gets "redistributed" along shallow shorelines.

(Once redistributed along the shoreline, some would call this mud—or silt).

2) These become the nutrients that promote algae—the snails that browse on the algae—and thence to the outbreaks of "Duck Itch".

3) With a no-wake rule invoked due to this mis-cue—though still pending—I'd expect that folks living around Lake Winnipesaukee's bays and coves will experience a growth rate increase of milfoil. :rolleye1:

4) It's a much-bigger "deal" than having to discipline the speed of over-sized boats—temporarily. :(

IMHO

Thaks for the correction. I can't find where I got that wrong, but very precise number. I noticed they opened the dam even more overnight and it is flowing at 1862 CFS as of 4AM today.

Lakegeezer, no biggie just want to make sure no one got misled.... I wouldn't be surprised if statistically the average lake level for this time of year is supposed to be your figure of 503.63.... which I would think would be reasonable, as normally right about now is when the lake starts to fill up....and the ice melts. For what ever reason this year mother nature started things up early, and nothing match the statistical past.

Level's never been this high, this early
 

Looking at the level for March 30, one thing is obvious -- the lake level has never been this high, this early in the year --- ever! (at least since 1982, when the lake level chart records began). And this doesn't include today's rain.

So, for everyone who's saying "the lake will recede quickly", I hope you're right -- but so far, history shows it will take 1 - 2 months for the lake to drop down to get back to "Full". That puts us at mid-late May, assuming no more real wet periods over that time. Wishful thinking? Or are we facing a different reality, which might involve "no wake" for quite a while?

Keeping Track of the Lake
 

If you want to monitor the lake level and get information about the flow out of the dam at Lakeport you can go to the Lake Watch page on RattlesnakeCam.com. On the right side there are several links. The image below describes three of these that are relevant to the current high lake conditions. Bizer updates his charts when there are rapidly changing conditions, so make sure to visit his site. The other links also have interesting lake information.
Think warm and dry!

See bottom of this post for URLs if you cannot click on above links.
IG


http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/watch.htm
http://www.rattlesnakecam.com

We are thanking our lucky stars here for the abnormally early ice out. An ice sheet raised up on these kinds of water levels could have been devastating.

Indeed, devastating to everyone but the dock construction companies......

I would hate to think about a huge free moving sheet of ice like that.... It would put everything at risk.

It did happen, in the April 2007 storm. That event took out the Meredith Town Docks, along with many others. In addition to the flood & ice, the wind of that storm (sustained 45 mph with gusts to 64) also put trees in the water, where they became large floating debris for a while.

Today, we're 6 inches below the April 2007 level.

For some reason I thought much of the ice damage that year happened before April but now that you mention it that is about the time we changed our dock repair policy a bit to reduce the number of incoming repair applications.

What level and who decides on No Wake on the Lake? Thanks in advance


As a side note my wife and I always joke that my mother and our dog want to campaign for "NO WAKE ON THE LAKE" Full-time:D.......they like going slow:(

My wife also likes the "Cocktail Cruise" speed. It is easier to entertain, chat, and enjoy a cocktail as you slowly travel to different parts of the lake. The only drawback is lack of cocktails for the captain!

Well our basement floor is usually about a foot above the lake level so we don't get water. The building is only a few feet from the Lake. We now have about 5 inches of water in there because the lake and the floor are now even.
That said the Brewster Academy sail boats were out today. The little inflatables that were driving around were making small wakes that were lapping at the top of our retaining wall. If a big boat came cruising into the town docks we would be getting wet. I imagine the lake is still going up? Hopefully we won't have too bad an issue in the Basement...:(

Silver Lake is exrtremely high. I talked with a homeowner today in Laconia and he sent me to see his Pontoon boat tied to his deck and the high water. He has no yard in front of his home anymore and his outdoor fireplace is under water. He is located to the right of the dam outflow about 10 homes down. At least no one in the neighborhood is under water yet. I saw one cottage with water al the way under it.

I also visited the Winni, Laconia (Opechee) and Winnisquam dams today and they were all at capacity with pretty spectaular flow.

I was at the new public launch for Winnisquam in Laconia too and the river flow was very swift. One black marker was bobbing all over as the water pushed it around.

Gotta love having to work in the Laconia/Belmont area today. :D Always have the camera with me when in the area of the lake.

Winnipesaukee Dam at Lakeport today. Other photos in Photopost Gallery under Weather
For comparrison here is the dam on 3/12/10 http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...136&ppuser=628
<TABLE class=alt1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...inni_Dam_2.jpg</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

505 lake level
 

the lake level hit 505 today
04/01/2010 03:00 42.6 505.01 0.00

any records for highest lake level?

See the following link for historical max elevations back until 1982 - June 3 maxed out at 5.89 on the gauge; I believe that was 1984 or 1985 -I have some photos (slides) of it somewhere.

http://des.nh.gov/organization/divis.../chart2009.pdf

FEMA list the 100 year flood elevation of Winnipesaukee as 506.

At the current lake elevation and discharge rate of 1,888 cfs it would take about 9 days to get down to a lake level of 504.32 - IF THERE WERE NO MORE RAIN AND NO MORE WATER RUNNING INTO THE LAKE

There really is no magic number as to when they decide to go no wake. However usually anytime the water is above 505 feet, and there is a lot of boating traffic the lake gets shut down. This early in the season I would be surprised to see something get issued. People and business have to start complaining first.

In other news I looked at the graphs this morning. It looks as though Silver Lake has crested, Winnisquam has leveled off, and so has Winnipesaukee.... That doesn't mean we are in the clear, it just means that at the moment things are stabilizing.

For those who love statistics:
 

I have daily DES data going back to 1982.&nbsp; Today's reading of 5.01 was 9" higher than the previous high for April 1st, which was 4.29 back in 1983.&nbsp; This is the fourth time the water level has gone above 5.00 since 1982.&nbsp; It was above 5.00 for 19 days in 1984, 21 days in 1998, 9 days in 2001, 17 days in 2005, and of course, today.

The largest one day rise was 7.2" in April, 2007.&nbsp; The largest two-day rise was 12.2" in May, 2006.&nbsp; We did not come close to those figures in March.


It was 1984.&nbsp;Even without any rain, the hills are saturated.&nbsp; Runoff into Winnipesaukee may still exceed Lakeport outflow for a day or two.&nbsp; Typically, after heavy rains, the fastest drop is only about four inches per week.

After note: Friday, 02APR10.&nbsp; To illustrate, between 12-APR-07 and 18-APR-07, the lake received 5.5" of rain and the lake rose 14".&nbsp; Without any additional rain, the lake level rose an additional 3" in the following five days and took several more days just to lose those 3".&nbsp;(Also, the lake's level rose 1/4" yesterday despite the lack of rain)

Let's not forget snowmelt. A few days ago one of my friends hiked Mount Shaw in the Ossipees and said he found 2 feet of frozen-solid snow up there. Looking around the lake today with binocs, I can see there are still patches of snow visible on the north sides of Mt Major and Gunstock, with the ski trails still solid white. That means there is probably more snow left in the shade of trees where it is hidden from view.

For anywhere above 1500 feet it was a banner year for snow. Some places in the White Mountains had 6 FEET (or more) in the past month. During the storm at the end of February, Randolph, NH picked up 39.6 inches of snow. Wildcat Mountain Ski Area had similar amounts. Only a couple weeks ago, the AMC/USFS cabin at the entrance to Tuckerman Ravine posted a snow depth of 77 inches. Hikers I talked to said it was a very dense, cement-like snow.

The above information tells me that there's probably a lot more snow left to melt from the higher elevations, and we have 3 days of summerlike temps starting tomorrow. The ground is saturated, with the recent heavy rains still finishing their runoff, and the trees are barely beginning their annual budding -- not yet drawing much water from the ground.

I thought the water would have gone down a bit in the lake. But it is actually higher than when I saw it on Friday. Water is actually touching the bottom of the docks now. More rain this week.....

Back Bay 4-6-10.
 

Water is high in Back Bay, over the docks by 2 inches.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...m/IMG_1571.jpg http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...m/IMG_1568.jpg

Boy was I wrong to have any doubts in mother nature......

Center Harbor
 

Looking at the Mount Cam..the lake is really getting high. Another six inches and the town docks will be going under.

The good news is the White Bob House that has been parked on the beach for a month is GONE. NB

The Data currently shows that the lake is actually starting to slowly go down... Of course a rain shower or two could change that really quick.

water level at Sheps
 

bring your boots if you are on the gas dock at Shep Browns, I had to walk through ankle high water up to the covered section, from there they have added raised sections.