Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonas Pilot
Now that you teased us I hope you will tell us what the "European" is.
Thanks!
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JP,
There are numerous different computer models used as tools to help forecasters come up with weather forecasts. The "European" is one of them. It has a few aliases, mainly the "euro" and "ECMWF". This model was developed for The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and "ECMWF" is a weather acronym derived from that organization.
Other major models include the GFS or Global, NOGAPS, UKMET and NAM. When the models each give a different solution to a particular storm or event, it becomes a low-confidence forecast, such as what we have today for the upcoming event.
The ECMWF shows an intense storm over Cape Cod on Monday at all levels of the atmosphere. Because it is "vertically stacked" it would move very slowly, hence a big storm for the Boston area extending into the lakes region. However, most other models show a weaker storm on more of an ocean track. But these models are showing their track closer to the ECMWF track with most runs. In time something will happen, the computer programs and the forecasters will learn from the result and we move on to the next event.
One thing to be aware of is the ECMWF seems to be the more accurate model for this time of the year in this area of the world. That is why I started this thread.
There are ten or more "weather nuts" on this forum with varing degrees of classic weather training/education. We enjoy times like this.
I hope this helps!
R2B