Merry Christmas to all.
Forecasting is a very complicated task. We have come a long way over the last 25 years, and the more we learn the more we realize we do not know. TnT, as someone who has studied plasma physics and atmospheric physics and have been very involved in computer modeling before I retired, I can relate to your frustration, but it is far more complex than you are suggesting. Model initialization is a major issue right now and the algorithms do a poor job of trying to over correct for weak initialization. Good people are working on this problem.
Many of us that post here share our opinions for pleasure and enjoyment. None of us are ever completely correct, but we love the challenge of trying to be correct. The NWS has the best overall forecasts because they are not impacted by the spin required by the news editors at the TV stations so accurately noted by CLA.
As to the current situation, I see it as a small event for the Lakes Region. The phasing of the two jets will not occur in time for this to be a big deal around here. As a result, most of it will go out the sea, but not as far out as the last storm. However, there is enough energy around to make it interesting.
Again, Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night! I heard this somewhere before!
R2B
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