Wind Direction
After reviewing the 11 PM advisory from the NHC and doing some plotting of the forecast coordinates for 72 and 96 hours out, I am not completely sold on winds from the southerly direction any more. I want to point out, until the 11 PM advisory, I was thinking southerly winds, but I am not so sure anymore.
Looking at the plotting I did, the storm will pass within 20 to 30 miles to the west of the lake based on the forecasted locations at 72 and 96 hours and assuming a straight line betweem these coordinates, not a great assumption, but that is what I plotted. That is based on forecasted storm locations, 3 to 4 days out. There will be an error in this forecasted track because tropical systems do not behave as well as the computer models suggest. If the storm moves slightly right of the forecasted track, 40 miles or so, something entirely possible, the winds will be easterly swinging northerly and backing to the west. There could even be a calm period as the eye crosses.
Bottom line here is southerly winds are not a certainty any longer and we all need to prepare for winds from any direction at this time. This thing is forecasted to come very close to us here in the lakes region at this time!
Keep paying close attention to the NWS forecasts.
Be safe!
R2B
Last edited by Resident 2B; 08-26-2011 at 12:35 AM.
Reason: clarification
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