I believe that by the time Sandy gets to New England, if it gets this far north, it will be more like a big Nor'easter and less like a tropical system. This is good and bad, all at the same time.
A Nor'easter is a larger storm system, unlike a tropical system that is usually much smaller with a very intense center. However, as a larger system, the exact track does not really matter that much. It could cross the coast in northern NJ and we could still get a good amount of wind and rain. There will be a huge fetch with the storm, so the sea coast will get hit hard.
Another thing to keep in mind is the NHC is using models designed for tropical systems to forecast what will be a hybrid or a non-tropical system. As a result, there will be changes to the track and intensity during the period of time before it gets to us. Although the NWS and the NHC are part of NOAA, they have separate offices and forecasters. I am sure there are some interesting technical discussion going on at the NOAA level.
We will likely get a good rain and wind storm early next week. How bad is still TBD, but it is clearly something to watch very closely.
Time will tell!
R2B
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