Thanks Chris, you're right, I did not include tax incentives in the payback calculations, which make a big difference in the payback period. Personally I do not like these tax credits as I think the government is a very poor picker of winning technologies. I would rather see these monies being used to encourage r and d on things like batteries or maybe new refrigerants that would make these systems more efficient.
The most surprising thing I saw was the relative cost of natural gas is a much better deal, I didn't expect that. I also suspect that if the federal government were not artificially inflating the price of oil by making it impossible for a new refinery or two come on line and essentially stopping most new oil from federal land, then operating costs would be closer. A change in the political climate could lower oil substantially in my opinion.
I think the cost of these systems is artificially high also, from the cost of the equipment to the installation costs. This is partially due to the incentives. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for making hay while the sun shines, but I think these costs will come down making these systems more appealing as the technology improves and more installers become proficient.
The cost of electricity long term is another concern. We have many green initiatives going on this country plus a president that is openly hostile to coal generated electricity. We have a push toward green technologies such as solar and wind, which are much more expensive to produce and all this combined will start negatively affecting people's electric bills.
So I think I'm going to stick with my smoke belching, 83% efficient oil burner for now but I will be keeping my eye on propane, which would probably cost me less then $10k to convert.....fd
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