[Orion]

Wow Hazelnut, that's a lot of thinking goin' on there.
Although your analysis may have some merit, there are really too many other variables to consider..... the thickness of the ice; the reason for the receding ice at Silver Sands (could just be more flow from the river feeding Mt. View Yacht Club); water temp; rain; wind; solar heating of shoreline; phases of the moon (just kidding); ...... you name it. I do think that the extended periods of rain coming up could certainly thin the ice layer.