Your analysis on cost is good. I would choose oil based on the cost. Remember to do the maintenance yearly and you should have little problem. You should still have propane systems maintained although it is not as critical as oil. I like FHW because the heat is even and not drafty. I have a power vent in my non-lake home that has been very reliable (7 years so far) but it is noisy, I'm thinking about a chimney and would definately put a chimney in if I was doing it over again. The only reason I would not go with oil would be if I had to have the tank outdoors, fuel oil can jell in cold weather, you'd have to mix with kerosene (more money), otherwise oil is the way to go.
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