I would have to say from my experience and this would be the 20th year I've been up there for the derby, there have been numerous years in which we were concerned that the lake would not freeze up solid enough for derby weekend. However It seems to me that the average ice in must be some time in late January. And we'll still have 18" inches of ice in time for the derby (an optimistic thought I know). I only recall one derby in the last 20 years that was postponed a week. So basically, my view is: It's not time to panic... yet.