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Originally Posted by ITD
Of course it's perfect, just look at the exit POLLS from the presidential election that had Bush losing, that turned out to be correct............  |
But I thought that you guys still believed that Bush actually did lose?
Anyway, I can't speak towards that poll...I just don't know enough about it. Perhaps you can provide specifics about the number of people polled, the randomness of the polling, the wording of the question that was asked, the numerical results, and the margin for error in those results...then we can talk about it from a position of knowledge rather than idle speculation.
And I'm sure there have been other polls with close results that were wrong. If this speed limit poll, for instance, had found a 52 to 48 favorable result, then I'd be the first to admit that it might have had the results backwards (+/- 4% MOE).
But results in the ARG poll ranging between 4 to 1 and 10 to 1 are just too high to be backwards. No one with a truly open mind and a belief in math and science can say with a straight face that this poll does not prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that an
overwhelming majority of NH's citizens favor speed limits on their lakes.
Let's take the Republican voters as an example, the margin is between 2.88 to 1 and 2.38 to 1 in favor of speed limits...that is too huge a difference to ever be overcome by any error in the randomness of a 600 person sampling. If we ever had a presidential election that was one fourth as lopsided as this, it would be an historic landslide.
And the Democratic difference was more lopsided than Super Bowl XX - between 21.75 to 1 and 6.58 to 1. How could any poll find a 22 to 1 "favor" result if a majority had actually opposed? ...impossible. Do you feel that the '85 Pats were better than the '85 Bears? You have to have some willingness to face reality or this discussion is just not worth having.
I also admit that that Dewey did not win in 1948 .... but does that somehow also mean that this ARG poll could have been so far off as to get a 21.75 to 1 result backwards?
At least be sincere enough to admit that most of NH's citizens want speed limits on their lakes or there is just no foundation here for an honest debate. You guys have other arguments that are much better than the one where you say a 22 to 1 poll result is wrong...you really should be sticking to those. I thought the one about the need to float speed limit signs all around the lake was pretty interesting. Why did you drop that?