Quote:
Originally Posted by rsmlp
My son is director of computational biology at a biotech firm in Cambridge, MA so this stuff is literally his wheelhouse. Allow me to shed some light on some Covid math.
Firstly, there's PLENTY of data to extrapolate conclusions from BUT also plenty of variables. Variables make math conclusions iffy. The number one variable is "how many people in the US are infected with Covid"? We don't know since testing cannot possibly collect all the precise data but it is undoubtedly FACTORS greater than the 100K reported thus far. We DO know number of deaths caused directly by Covid; 1704 as of latest data collection. Please not a wrote DIRECTLY as that will come into play shortly.
The simple math is 1704/104000 or about 1.6% BUT that is indeed overstating the death rate as the PRESUMED number of cases is AT LEAST 250,000 and probably higher so 1704/250000 equals about .7%. My son says that the whisper number is right around .5%.
Still pretty damn deadly. The GOOD news is children under the age of 15 or so are practically impervious to Covid. We do not know why. That said, there are healthy younger people dying from Covid but MOST deaths are older or more vulnerable people.
Short of a vaccine-which we won't see for at least a year, the ONLY way to slow down Covid is isolation. There is simply no other option. It is possible that warmer weather may reduce he spread but we don't know that either.
So America has a choice; as several on this forum and our illustrious POTUS have suggested, GO BACK TO WORK! Understand that if we go down that path that 20-50% of Americans will become infected, we will completely overwhelm our healthcare system which means that INDIRECTLY (no room at the hospital) hundreds of thousands will die and DIRECTLY (let's use a 25% infection rate and be optimistic) about 500,000 Americans will die and I would guess that's on the low side.
OR
Hunker down except for absolute essential workers for 4-6 weeks and the economy does whatever it will do but it won't be pretty either. Note that this will NOT eradicate the virus but rather slow it down.
Those are the choices.
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So we pull the band aid off now or we wait and pull it off later. Either way, it will be painful
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