Quote:
Originally Posted by Sue Doe-Nym
Ha ha! Very amusing….but there’s no need to mock those who seriously wonder why there isn’t a better and more reliable system for regulating the water level, given advances in modern technology. It appears that the SWAG system is the one currently in place.
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I find it amusing that people speculate about weather forecasting or other technology that could manage the water level better. There are constraints on the management of the lake level that cannot be overcome without absurd levels of effort and expense or damaging results because of the attempt.
First, the amount of water coming into the lake is controlled by snow melt and rain. We are at the mercy of the weather.
The amount of water removed from the lake occurs through numerous runoffs and evaporation. The only control on this process is the Lakeport dam. Water cannot be stored up in the lake beyond a certain point without doing damage. So even if we looked ahead for 2 months and saw a drought, we could only hang on to only so much extra water. Further, once the dam output is at 250 CFS we CANNOT go lower, as noted in other comments. That still drops the lake by about 4 inches per month.
There is a 40+ year history of the mean lake level and DES manages the level to approximate that mean. There are numerous reasons for that. For example, the level is dropped in the Fall and Winter to allow for management of snow melt and Spring rains. The lake is allowed to “fill up” until mid-June to allow for summer activities.
Here is a summary of what happened this year.
~June 15 is targeted to be Full Pool. The mean level drops from this point on.
On June 18 we had Full Pool, close to the target. The dam output was 1000 CFS.
On June 23, dam output dropped to 600 CFS.
On June 26, dam output dropped to 350 CFS.
Within 10 days, June 18 – June 26, the dam output was dialed back to almost minimum.
On July 15, dam output dropped to 250 CFS, the minimum possible.
The lake level on July 15 was only 1” below the 40 years mean. That seems to be pretty reasonable. Further, since the dam was at minimum output, THERE WAS NOTHING FURTHER THAT COULD BE DONE TO RAISE THE LAKE LEVEL, even if we knew for sure what the weather was going to do.
The result seems to blame the DES for “mismanagement” and to curse the weather Gods.
The mean level of the lake normally drops about 10.5” from Full Pool by now. We are down another 7.5” entirely due to lack of rain through July and August. The dam output has been minimum all that time. Even if given foreknowledge of no rain, there is nothing else we could have done.
If we had retained 7” of water from the Spring rains, we would have had NO WAKE conditions on the lake which comes with its own set of problems and damage. There is no forecasting technology that can be accurate for two months ahead so we can not know.
If someone can state specific solutions that could/should be applied, do so. I don’t see any. We are nowhere near forecasts that can go out all summer. The dam was managed to reasonable standards based on existing constraints. The weather has caused lake levels to approach the most extreme results in 43 years (there has been worse). The results are what they are, even if they create difficulties.
Griping and blaming doesn't solve problems and some problems are not solvable.