I'm so glad to see a thread with so many other weather nuts! Welcome, Rose. The last couple days I stayed busy with Fishing Derby photos out on the ice and didn't have time to check the models (a watched pot never boils)... plus, R2B is in Florida, so between his being away (jinxing himself) and my failure to watch the pot, perhaps it is about to boil!
I just had a quick look at the discussions from NWS-Taunton and Gray, and I see them mentioning QPF's of 3+ inches, which translates into "an awful lot of snow" as their night shift forecaster stated better than I could say myself. Sounds like all the models are on board with a track close to the coast, with three models even tracking it inland a little, but I agree with Gray's discussion that the models often do track New England's storms too far inland and fail to consider the localized coastal fronts that they often follow... AND that it's hard to imagine the storm barelling up against the arctic air we'll have on top of us at the time it arrives.
The only snow-limiting factor I can see happening, given this scenario, is the localized effect that messed me up slightly on the storm a week ago (forecast posted on this thread): Some ocean air did work its way into the mid-levels over the lake for just a few hours and changed the powder snow to the heavy sticky variety, and we also had a bit of freezing drizzle for a time. Instead of the 20:1 QPF-snow ratio we had more of the average 10:1... but even at 10:1, if (or wherever) the 3"+ QPF materializes it would be 30 inches of snow.
R2B did you say something about the Lake needing some snow to protect the ice from the strengthening sun? Good point. Blizzard or not, This should give us enough snow to do the trick. A postscript - the ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Islands is now 18 inches of crystal clear, solid ice. In my earlier measurement of 9 inches I'm guessing I was too close to a dock circulator (I thought I was far enough away...) but one of the ice fishermen measured it for me as I watched yesterday. This is very significant considering this part of the lake was open water exactly 21 days ago. Considering the thickness and quality of the ice, this upcoming snow could help the ice pack make up for the time it lost at the beginning of the season.
For those who don't know already, I have a bunch of links to my favorite weather images and text data at
www.blackcatnh.com/weather - enjoy!
In the meantime it's bedtime - I'll resist the temptation to look at the models for now and wait 'til coffee time in a few more hours. That way if something of epic proportions really is materializing I'll have something I can reflexively spit at the screen.
