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Resident 2B · 02-12-2007, 02:28 PM

Per CLA, this is a tough one! That is for sure.

It does look like a stormy day on Wednesday; the question is how stormy and how much snow.

Complication the situation is the cold air, the warm ocean, storm intensity and the storm track. Four very interesting variables in this case.

There is cold air in place and the flow is bringing more in. However, the ocean is warm for this time of the year and if the path of the storm is inside of Cape Cod, there will be a more easterly flow at some levels and the warm water will have some impact. How intense and which center wins the phasing battle, if there is to be phasing, is a big question. Finally, somewhat related to phasing is the track of the dominent center.

Here is what I am thinking with the latest data in and a slow day at the track allowing time for such thinking. We have a very interesting 24 to 30 hours of weather starting after midnight Tuesday. I see this storm as a big mixer with white cake batter on one side representing the cold air and chocolate cake batter on the other side representating the warm air. It is looking like we will get some 'marble cake' as a result of turning the mixer on. This was suggested by Rose last evening. That is looking like a great call!

I think that there will be a fair period of rain along the coast, but a lot of it will be freezing rain. Inland, still mixing, but with less ice. I would not rule out rain with surface tempatures still in the mid 20's even in the Lakes Region. This will compress the snow keeping the storm more like and 8:1 that the 20:1 that the surface tempatures would suggest.

Bottom line is a very interesting event with a lot of snow at the beginning and the end, with a mix of something in the middle in the Winnipesaukee area.

It will get cold down here in Florida. The truck race on Friday night should see wind chill around 30 degrees. The grandstand should sheild the wind a bit, but it will be cold. I need to go buy a warmer jacket before the "good ole boyz" realize what the weather will be. Most of them freeze at about 50 degrees.

Below is Henry's latest map switching the red zone northward and westward.

Time will tell!

R2B

02-12-2007, 02:28 PM	#78
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	The Big Mixer! Per CLA, this is a tough one! That is for sure. It does look like a stormy day on Wednesday; the question is how stormy and how much snow. Complication the situation is the cold air, the warm ocean, storm intensity and the storm track. Four very interesting variables in this case. There is cold air in place and the flow is bringing more in. However, the ocean is warm for this time of the year and if the path of the storm is inside of Cape Cod, there will be a more easterly flow at some levels and the warm water will have some impact. How intense and which center wins the phasing battle, if there is to be phasing, is a big question. Finally, somewhat related to phasing is the track of the dominent center. Here is what I am thinking with the latest data in and a slow day at the track allowing time for such thinking. We have a very interesting 24 to 30 hours of weather starting after midnight Tuesday. I see this storm as a big mixer with white cake batter on one side representing the cold air and chocolate cake batter on the other side representating the warm air. It is looking like we will get some 'marble cake' as a result of turning the mixer on. This was suggested by Rose last evening. That is looking like a great call! I think that there will be a fair period of rain along the coast, but a lot of it will be freezing rain. Inland, still mixing, but with less ice. I would not rule out rain with surface tempatures still in the mid 20's even in the Lakes Region. This will compress the snow keeping the storm more like and 8:1 that the 20:1 that the surface tempatures would suggest. Bottom line is a very interesting event with a lot of snow at the beginning and the end, with a mix of something in the middle in the Winnipesaukee area. It will get cold down here in Florida. The truck race on Friday night should see wind chill around 30 degrees. The grandstand should sheild the wind a bit, but it will be cold. I need to go buy a warmer jacket before the "good ole boyz" realize what the weather will be. Most of them freeze at about 50 degrees. Below is Henry's latest map switching the red zone northward and westward. Time will tell! R2B Attached Images