Winnipesaukee Forum - View Single Post - Ice-Out 2007

CanisLupusArctos · 03-11-2007, 10:02 PM

This looks like an above-normal week for temps, and a chance of colder (not extreme, but below freezing) at the end of the week. My guess would be for a late ice-out, given that it got over 20 inches thick in some places this year... most of it was solid clear ice (not flaky snow ice) and there were still trucks out on it this weekend. There's also plenty of white snow on it to reflect the sun's rays for a while.

Presence or absence of wind will play a big role. In the blackcatnh weathercam's time lapse over the past month the ice could be seen moving up and down during windy conditions (while everything else in the image remains fixed). The past 8 weeks have been incredibly windy with very few calm days and if this trend continues, the wind will be the major contributor to this year's iceout. If that is the case, the iceout could be dramatic and possibly damaging with waves carrying thick bergs and shards. If that is not the case, the sun will have to do most of the work which could take a while since there's so much ice to melt.

Looking at weather patterns, the El Nino that probably played a huge role in our incredibly warm weather in December/January has broken down and is becoming its opposite - La Nina - as spring arrives. While the El Nino and La Nina patterns have had many different effects on New England in the past, El Nino is most noted for warm/dry here, while La Nina has often caused cold/wet. Only time will tell.

More weather info regularly posted by a bunch of us meteorology buffs on the latest version of the "Winni Weather" thread.

03-11-2007, 10:02 PM	#3
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Sun or Wind? This looks like an above-normal week for temps, and a chance of colder (not extreme, but below freezing) at the end of the week. My guess would be for a late ice-out, given that it got over 20 inches thick in some places this year... most of it was solid clear ice (not flaky snow ice) and there were still trucks out on it this weekend. There's also plenty of white snow on it to reflect the sun's rays for a while. Presence or absence of wind will play a big role. In the blackcatnh weathercam's time lapse over the past month the ice could be seen moving up and down during windy conditions (while everything else in the image remains fixed). The past 8 weeks have been incredibly windy with very few calm days and if this trend continues, the wind will be the major contributor to this year's iceout. If that is the case, the iceout could be dramatic and possibly damaging with waves carrying thick bergs and shards. If that is not the case, the sun will have to do most of the work which could take a while since there's so much ice to melt. Looking at weather patterns, the El Nino that probably played a huge role in our incredibly warm weather in December/January has broken down and is becoming its opposite - La Nina - as spring arrives. While the El Nino and La Nina patterns have had many different effects on New England in the past, El Nino is most noted for warm/dry here, while La Nina has often caused cold/wet. Only time will tell. More weather info regularly posted by a bunch of us meteorology buffs on the latest version of the "Winni Weather" thread.