My guess
I would suspect that the difference is related to the size of the water. Paugus Bay, where the state's probe is, gets circulated a lot less than the water out here. Paugus Bay is almost its own little lake with only a small channel into the main lake. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the water temps there were warmer in the summer and if it froze earlier in winter.
Where my probe is, we see the lake getting continuously stirred from end to end - wind comes up from Wolfeborough (from the SE) and on days like today it blows from Center Harbor (NW.) The water here has always taken a good deal of hot humid weather before it warmed above 70 in summer, and in the fall it takes a good long time to cool down and eventually freeze. The trees within a couple hundred feet of the shoreline are usually a week behind the rest of the area during foliage season. We typically don't get our first frost until November, thanks to relatively warm water.
The last couple days the water temp reached 71, but now with lower humidity and a NW wind I'm wondering if it'll drop back into the 60s by evening.
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