Winnipesaukee Forum - View Single Post

Resident 2B · 01-10-2008, 01:30 PM

Just spent some time with the models.....weather models that is. Life is not that exciting!

The models are still all over the place, but it is looking like they are beginning to converge to some extent, as long as you completely disregard the GFS.

My opinion is the ECWMF has the best handle on the situation. That is because it forms the storm where one would expect a storm to form when you consider the frontal locations and the locations of the "jets". The UKMET is starting to pick-up on this and the GGEM seems to be in good agreement with the ECMWF's storm origination point. The GFS starts the storm well south of where anyone would think a storm would be born given the atmospheric conditions in the area at the time of formation. Therefore, if you disregard the GFS and look at a reasonable blend of the ECMWF, the GGEM and the UKMET, in that order, you start to see some convergence showing us with a moderate winter storm.

It is looking like the storm goes near the 40/70 benchmark, and if it does, southern New England up through at least the Lakes Region should see 6" or more of snow, about a Y1 in "forum-speak". However, it really is too soon to be thinking about accumulations in specific locations from this event.

Timing looks to be in-line with what Rose was thinking several days ago, mainly a late Sunday night into Monday event. This is 12 hours earlier than I was thinking, at that time.

Although this is my opinion at this time, confidence in this forecast is only low to moderate. It could get bigger and it could be just a small event. Time will tell.

If you are a betting person, bet your money on the Pats and not on this forecast. As GTO points out in his recent post, models and forecasts are inaccurate at times, especially this time of year in NH.

R2B

01-10-2008, 01:30 PM	#5
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	Monday, Monday..... Just spent some time with the models.....weather models that is. Life is not that exciting! The models are still all over the place, but it is looking like they are beginning to converge to some extent, as long as you completely disregard the GFS. My opinion is the ECWMF has the best handle on the situation. That is because it forms the storm where one would expect a storm to form when you consider the frontal locations and the locations of the "jets". The UKMET is starting to pick-up on this and the GGEM seems to be in good agreement with the ECMWF's storm origination point. The GFS starts the storm well south of where anyone would think a storm would be born given the atmospheric conditions in the area at the time of formation. Therefore, if you disregard the GFS and look at a reasonable blend of the ECMWF, the GGEM and the UKMET, in that order, you start to see some convergence showing us with a moderate winter storm. It is looking like the storm goes near the 40/70 benchmark, and if it does, southern New England up through at least the Lakes Region should see 6" or more of snow, about a Y1 in "forum-speak". However, it really is too soon to be thinking about accumulations in specific locations from this event. Timing looks to be in-line with what Rose was thinking several days ago, mainly a late Sunday night into Monday event. This is 12 hours earlier than I was thinking, at that time. Although this is my opinion at this time, confidence in this forecast is only low to moderate. It could get bigger and it could be just a small event. Time will tell. If you are a betting person, bet your money on the Pats and not on this forecast. As GTO points out in his recent post, models and forecasts are inaccurate at times, especially this time of year in NH. R2B