Water Temp is the Key
Seems to me the main culpret in the deicification of the Lake is the temperature of the water. The warmer water eats at the ice from below. Wind plays a part as the ice gets thin enough to break up and be more actively mixed with the water (like stirring a drink). 40 degrees seems to be the key water temperature - very shortly after the water temp gets to 40 ice is out. Here is the history since 2002.
Year Ice Out Temp Reached 40 deg
2002 4/4 4/3
2003 4/25 4/20
2004 4/20 4/14
2005 4/20 4/17
2006 4/3 4/1
2007 4/23 4/23
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