Winnipesaukee Forum - View Single Post - Ice-Out 2008

CanisLupusArctos · 04-20-2008, 02:07 PM

In the last couple of hours at Black Cat we have seen the ice start to make its annual move. Winds are from the southeast and increasing. Heat ripples continue above the surface of the ice in the distance, indicating that it is still absorbing heat from the surrounding area (60s in most locations) while the island is much cooler.

The ice is breaking up rapidly and bergs moving SE to NW.

I just drove along Rts. 11 - 3 - 25 from Rochester to Center Harbor along the lake shore and found at every view the ice was rotten, breaking up, and lots of evidence of movement as far as I could see.

Prior to yesterday I wouldn't have believed it would go out this week but now I think iceout by Friday is likely. It has absorbed a LOT of heat in the last 3 days and now it appears likely that we'll be having temps in the 70s most of this week, possibly low 80s again in a few places on Wednesday. This fair weather pattern is also bringing a sundown wind starting early in the day (1-2 p.m. each day) which has been an unpredicted weakening force on the ice the last 3 days. I expect this pattern to continue for most of the week.

The sundown wind is being locally enhanced by the temperature differences between the ice-cooled air over the lake and the warmth of the surrounding area which has been and will continue to be abnormally warm for this time of year. Currently the winds at Concord, Laconia, and Plymouth are sustained 8-10 mph with gusts to 16 or so, while Black Cat WeatherCam is sustained at 16 gusting to 24.

Further speeding this year's iceout has been abnormally dry air (dewpoints in the 20s) which have coupled with the localized wind to literally dry up (scientific term - 'sublimate') the surface of the ice.

Those who have docks that have any exposure to east or SE, watch out... the ice is moving.

04-20-2008, 02:07 PM	#141
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	The Ice Is on the Move In the last couple of hours at Black Cat we have seen the ice start to make its annual move. Winds are from the southeast and increasing. Heat ripples continue above the surface of the ice in the distance, indicating that it is still absorbing heat from the surrounding area (60s in most locations) while the island is much cooler. The ice is breaking up rapidly and bergs moving SE to NW. I just drove along Rts. 11 - 3 - 25 from Rochester to Center Harbor along the lake shore and found at every view the ice was rotten, breaking up, and lots of evidence of movement as far as I could see. Prior to yesterday I wouldn't have believed it would go out this week but now I think iceout by Friday is likely. It has absorbed a LOT of heat in the last 3 days and now it appears likely that we'll be having temps in the 70s most of this week, possibly low 80s again in a few places on Wednesday. This fair weather pattern is also bringing a sundown wind starting early in the day (1-2 p.m. each day) which has been an unpredicted weakening force on the ice the last 3 days. I expect this pattern to continue for most of the week. The sundown wind is being locally enhanced by the temperature differences between the ice-cooled air over the lake and the warmth of the surrounding area which has been and will continue to be abnormally warm for this time of year. Currently the winds at Concord, Laconia, and Plymouth are sustained 8-10 mph with gusts to 16 or so, while Black Cat WeatherCam is sustained at 16 gusting to 24. Further speeding this year's iceout has been abnormally dry air (dewpoints in the 20s) which have coupled with the localized wind to literally dry up (scientific term - 'sublimate') the surface of the ice. Those who have docks that have any exposure to east or SE, watch out... the ice is moving.