Thread: Proposed Law
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Old 05-15-2008, 02:29 PM   #346
hazelnut
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woodsy View Post
Evenstar...
However, I am going to show you the absolute FLAW in your logic equation! At the risk of making you look foolish, I am going to beat you over the head with your own math! I am going to use your equation and plug in the numbers for boats traveling under 50 MPH!
Your saying that over an 11 week span (770 Daylight Hours) there were approx 2,200 boats traveling greater than 50 MPH. 11 boats clocked over 50 MPH divided by 2% = 550 boats. (11/.02 = 550). You then assume that the number needs to be multiplied yet again because the speed zones only covered 25% of the lake... (and YOUR being generous @ 25%) 550/.25 = 2200 boats going faster than 50MPH over that 11 week span.
Assuming your formula is correct... Lets plug in the numbers for the boats going less than 50 MPH....
3841 boats clocked UNDER 50 MPH divided by 2% = 192,050 boats. (3841/.02 = 192,050). You then assume that the number needs to be multiplied yet again because the speed zones only covered 25% of the lake... (and again YOUR being generous @ 25%) 192,050/.25 = 768,200 boats going LESS than 50MPH over that 11 week span.

11 weeks = 77 days (770 daylight hours)
768,200 boats going less than 50 MPH
2,200 boats going greater than 50 MPH
768,200 + 2,200 = 770400 boats total during the survey
770,400/77 = 10,006 boats daily using Lake Winnipesaukee
768,200/77 = 9977 boats daily traveling less than 50 MPH
2,200/77 = 29 boats daily traveling greater than 50 MPH

29/9977 = .003% of the boating population travels over 50 MPH any given day of the survey!

You can apply YOUR Research Methodology ANYWAY you so choose. the problem with your math is.... THE PERCENTAGES DON"T CHANGE!!!

Do you seriously think that there were 770,400 BOATS on Lake Winnipesaukee during those 11 weeks?? I dont think anyone is going to believe those numbers! I think you might want to ask the University for a refund!

Woodsy
HURRAY HURRAY BRAVO WOODSY!
I'm thinking that should be the end of this debate about the "extrapolation" of data on the speed survey.
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