Winnipesaukee Forum - View Single Post

Woodsy · 05-16-2008, 10:57 AM

Evenstar...

It is truly amazing to me how you just do not get the math... I have quite the grasp on your analysis! In fact I understand it completely and quite possibly better than you do. You used a relatively standard formula to extrapolate data! Not really a big deal, but the formula is flawed in this application and that is shown by the extraordinarily LARGE number of boats. To be clear, when I say boat I meant singular instance as I assumed did you. In no way did I mean to infer that there were somehow 770,400 boats floating on Lake Winnipesaukee!

REMEMBER THIS IS THE FORMULA YOU USED!

Using YOUR formula YOU extrapolated 2200 boats going over 50 MPH or approximately 28.5 per day over the 77 day period!

Using YOUR formula I extrapolated 768,200 boats going under 50 MPH or approximately 9976.6 per day over the 77 day period!

28.5/9976 = .0028

Essentially you have less than 1/3 of 1% chance of coming into contact with a boat traveling over 50! What part of this math dont you understand? I am using YOUR formula! No matter how you extrapolate & multiply the numbers, the ratio/percentage doesnt change.

If YOUR formula is being applied correctly (and I do not think it is.. But I will get to that) your chances of running across a boat doing over 50MPH are essentially nil... .0028! If I were to extrapolate further, your chances of encountering a boat going over 60 MPH are for all intents and purposes non-existant!

But lets go one step further and say that of the boaters 2% are Capt. Boneheads who have a complete disregard of the rules & regs!

9976*.02 = 199.5 Capt. Boneheads!
28.5*.02 = .6 Capt Boneheads!

So every other day, 1 of the 28.5 boats going over 50 MPH is being driven by a Capt. Bonehead! While everyday 200 boats going under 50 MPH are being driven by a Capt. Bonehead!

Who do you think your going to have an encounter with? Need I calculate that for you too?

Now... on to the flaws with your formula!

By using YOUR formula we can extrapolate that the NHMP would have clocked 770,400 boats over the 11 week survey.

Good luck trying to get ANYONE to believe that number!!! There is no way that number could be remotely accurate and here is why...

The reason your formula/logic is flawed is because you are taking a blanket approach. If you knew the lake better, perhaps you would understand the flaws in your formula.

1. Lake Winnipesaukee has very little boating activity between Ice Out and Memorial Day and between Labor Day and Ice In.

2. The lake is really only "busy" boatwise (only in certain areas) during the nice (weatherwise) summer WEEKENDS between June 20th (roughly when the kids get out of school) and Labor Day (roughly when the kids go back to school). The NHMP speed survey was conducted during this time, only missing 1 or 2 weeks. When the weather is bad boat traffic decreases signifigantly!

3. Weekends are measured from Friday 2pm to Sunday 2pm, unless its a Holiday weekend such as July 4th & Labor Day. Before Friday 2pm the lake is relatively quiet, although usually a little busier than a thursday. Boat traffic picks up noticeably friday afternoon. Sunday afternoon sees sharp drop off in boat traffic as people are packing up to head home!

4. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday are EXTREMELY low traffic boat days, unless the monday is a holiday, then the sunday boat traffic is busier and monday tapers off after noon.

5. All boat traffic on the lake is not equal... so your blanket approach of multiplying to cover the entire area of the lake is inherently flawed. For example areas such as the Weirs and Meredith see alot of boat traffic, while areas off the beaten path such as Moultonborough Bay and all of the little coves see very little boat traffic.

6. There is no reason to adjust the raw data at all. It was taken by NHMP Officers & volunteers during REGULAR PATROL SHIFTS in the areas of the lake where the boat trafiic is higher. They are obviously not going to waste thier time & effort trying to clock boats in the smaller coves & bays! You need to remember, this was an UNFUNDED study!

Hope this helps you to better understand why your formula is flawed in this instance!

Woodsy

05-16-2008, 10:57 AM	#350
Woodsy Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Weirs Beach Posts: 1,966 Thanks: 80 Thanked 980 Times in 440 Posts	Evenstar... It is truly amazing to me how you just do not get the math... I have quite the grasp on your analysis! In fact I understand it completely and quite possibly better than you do. You used a relatively standard formula to extrapolate data! Not really a big deal, but the formula is flawed in this application and that is shown by the extraordinarily LARGE number of boats. To be clear, when I say boat I meant singular instance as I assumed did you. In no way did I mean to infer that there were somehow 770,400 boats floating on Lake Winnipesaukee! REMEMBER THIS IS THE FORMULA YOU USED! Using YOUR formula YOU extrapolated 2200 boats going over 50 MPH or approximately 28.5 per day over the 77 day period! Using YOUR formula I extrapolated 768,200 boats going under 50 MPH or approximately 9976.6 per day over the 77 day period! 28.5/9976 = .0028 Essentially you have less than 1/3 of 1% chance of coming into contact with a boat traveling over 50! What part of this math dont you understand? I am using YOUR formula! No matter how you extrapolate & multiply the numbers, the ratio/percentage doesnt change. If YOUR formula is being applied correctly (and I do not think it is.. But I will get to that) your chances of running across a boat doing over 50MPH are essentially nil... .0028! If I were to extrapolate further, your chances of encountering a boat going over 60 MPH are for all intents and purposes non-existant! But lets go one step further and say that of the boaters 2% are Capt. Boneheads who have a complete disregard of the rules & regs! 9976.02 = 199.5 Capt. Boneheads! 28.5.02 = .6 Capt Boneheads! So every other day, 1 of the 28.5 boats going over 50 MPH is being driven by a Capt. Bonehead! While everyday 200 boats going under 50 MPH are being driven by a Capt. Bonehead! Who do you think your going to have an encounter with? Need I calculate that for you too? Now... on to the flaws with your formula! By using YOUR formula we can extrapolate that the NHMP would have clocked 770,400 boats over the 11 week survey. Good luck trying to get ANYONE to believe that number!!! There is no way that number could be remotely accurate and here is why... The reason your formula/logic is flawed is because you are taking a blanket approach. If you knew the lake better, perhaps you would understand the flaws in your formula. 1. Lake Winnipesaukee has very little boating activity between Ice Out and Memorial Day and between Labor Day and Ice In. 2. The lake is really only "busy" boatwise (only in certain areas) during the nice (weatherwise) summer WEEKENDS between June 20th (roughly when the kids get out of school) and Labor Day (roughly when the kids go back to school). The NHMP speed survey was conducted during this time, only missing 1 or 2 weeks. When the weather is bad boat traffic decreases signifigantly! 3. Weekends are measured from Friday 2pm to Sunday 2pm, unless its a Holiday weekend such as July 4th & Labor Day. Before Friday 2pm the lake is relatively quiet, although usually a little busier than a thursday. Boat traffic picks up noticeably friday afternoon. Sunday afternoon sees sharp drop off in boat traffic as people are packing up to head home! 4. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday are EXTREMELY low traffic boat days, unless the monday is a holiday, then the sunday boat traffic is busier and monday tapers off after noon. 5. All boat traffic on the lake is not equal... so your blanket approach of multiplying to cover the entire area of the lake is inherently flawed. For example areas such as the Weirs and Meredith see alot of boat traffic, while areas off the beaten path such as Moultonborough Bay and all of the little coves see very little boat traffic. 6. There is no reason to adjust the raw data at all. It was taken by NHMP Officers & volunteers during REGULAR PATROL SHIFTS in the areas of the lake where the boat trafiic is higher. They are obviously not going to waste thier time & effort trying to clock boats in the smaller coves & bays! You need to remember, this was an UNFUNDED study! Hope this helps you to better understand why your formula is flawed in this instance! Woodsy __________________ The only way to eliminate ignorant behavior is through education. You can't fix stupid.