Quote:
Originally Posted by meteotrade
I wouldn't put a ton of stock in what SPC says... on MON they had us in a slight risk and nothing happened. Today we were not in the slight risk and we've been absolutely hammered, at least down here in southern New England. I would trust the local forecasters over some Oklahoma boys any day!
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From the graphics I can find on the SPC website, we were in the slight risk category from 12Z Sunday to 12Z on Monday, which verified. We were in the "see text" area from 12Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday. The text was
...NEW ENGLAND...
A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEVER...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG.
DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OF 50-55 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. EARLY DEPARTURE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALL APPEAR TO BE FACTORS LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THEREFORE...NO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.
For Tuesday, while they didn't have New England in the slight risk category, they didn't preclude it from happening.
...DE RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OWING TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET STREAK PROPAGATING NEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT...LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
I'd say they did a good job considering the difficulty of forecasting thunderstorms for one area, let alone an entire country.