Warmer than normal water
CLA,
I do not think we will be getting a full-fledged hurricane, but it is looking like we could be getting something that has or had tropical blood-lines during the mid-week.
I think the area which is now technically a tropical wave will grow to a TD later today and a TS by Saturday evening or Sunday morning off Cape Hatteras.
You are correct about water temps and hurricanes hitting NE. They are rare before mid to late August because they get killed by the cooler water. I do not think this system has enough time to fully develop into a cat 2 or 3, so it will lose steam quickly when it encounters cooler water. However, the water is very warm for this time of the year right up to the waters south of Long Island, NY.
Diamond Shoals off Cape Hatteras/Cape Lookout has water at 84.4 degrees, bouy 44004 which should be located 200 miles east of Cape May, NJ has escaped it's mooring but is now located at 25N 65W has water at 79.7 and bouy 44017 23 miles south of Montauk point, LI, NY has water at 76.3 degrees. All are from this morning's bouy report. This is very warm water for this time of the year, water like this is usually found in mid-August.
Steering currents will be SSW to NNE vectoring more to NE early next week. These currents should keep the system moving and off shore until it crosses the Long Island/Southern NE coast, possibly as a TS, but at least a tropically inspired, solid rain storm Monday night or Tuesday.
That is how I see it right now.
The warm water will make it interesting around here for the next ten weeks, tropically speaking.
Best regards,
R2B
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