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Originally Posted by Island Girl
CLA .... I am out here in a house on stilts... so read your posts with great interest.
What do you think about Ike coming this way?
IG
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I think it's looking highly unlikely now. Current forecast track for Ike takes it into the Gulf of Mexico after buzzing the northern coast of Cuba. If it manages to keep its center over water, passing between Cuba and the tip of Florida, we could be looking at another threat to the Gulf Coast states and the offshore oil operations.
Are you saying your house on Rattlesnake is on stilts? I think when Hanna moves through here tonight, it definitely won't be a good night to be riding around in The Broads. According to the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center it is expected to maintain sustained winds of 45 knots around its center, BUT as mentioned yesterday, it will be making the transition from "warm-core tropical" to "cold-core nor'easter" while it is passing Cape Cod. This throws a wrench into attempts to forecast its effects here because the storm's behavior will be changing as it makes the transition. I suspect that is also the reason why NHC hasn't extended the tropical storm warning north of the Merrimack River MA. There are no tropical advisories at all for the NH or ME coasts even though tropical storm force winds are a possibility there (and here.) It won't be coming from a "tropical" storm once it makes the transformation into a nor'easter. It'll just be a nor'easter... like the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2007 or any similar winter storm. The exception will be that there are leaves on the trees at this time of year which makes them more likely to catch the wind and be damaged by it (that doesn't happen in winter) and also, this won't be snow. I agree with HomeWood, though: Imagine if it was..... maybe this situation will repeat late enough in the hurricane season so there's lots of cold air over us, and we can get the ski season started early... and maybe the thing will stall instead of moving quickly, so we can keep the ski season going.... one can dream...
In the meantime, I expect the strongest winds to be closer to the storm's track but they will likely spread out a bit as it makes the transition to a nor'easter. Inland (here) the winds won't get past 35 mph much, but we all know that it's a different story out on the lake. A 25 mph wind over the towns is often a 45 mph wind out on the open lake.