Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambrose Angler
R2B - is your analysis corroborated by NWS(other agency?) analysis? Hopefully things won't get as warm as you foresee.
|
Joe Bastardi of Accu-Weather is predicting the warm up. NOAA, is predicting an average January, so indirectly they are supporting a warm last ten days of the month since the first twenty days will be below normal.
I do not just dream these forecasts up. I am completing a "distance learning" weather forecasting certificate program from Penn State Univ. Being retired and liking weather, it was a great way to use my time.
I study upper level charts and use teleconnections to develop my long range forecasts. In this case, the teleconnection is to Western Europe where there appears to be a relationship between what happens there and what happens here 10 to 13 days later at this time of the year. It was very cold there, compared to normal, during the Christmas/New Years period and it will be very cold here, compared to normal, next week. They will be seeing a warm-up soon and if the teleconnection holds, that should lead to our January thaw.
I am fairly confident that all of this will happen, but you never really know what Mother Nature has in store for us looking out more than a few days. I made this prediction well before Christmas and for now, nothing much has changed. However, in the last few days, the duration of the thaw looks to be decreasing some. If that trend continues, the thaw may not be as warm or as long.
I am a big fan of our winter sports, so I hope I am wrong as well. I think the cold we will have the next ten days will build the ice to the point that it will hold up well during the thaw. It is the currently open and thin areas that I am most concerned about, a potentially big problem for the sleds.
Time will tell!
R2B