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CanisLupusArctos · 01-14-2009, 10:00 AM

R2B is right in saying this will likely flop over to a warm spell. That's what happens. All winter long, the cold air tends to punch down from Canada on one side of the country or another. In response, the warm air bounces up where the cold air isn't punching down. When the western US gets the bitter cold punching down from Canada, the southern warm air reacts by bouncing up, and so we get warmth like what we had between Christmas and New Years.

Then it all flopped, with the cold air moving east and barging the warmth out of its way, and here we are. He also brings up a good point - storms are great agents of change in weather patterns. The stronger the storm, the more likely it is that the pattern will be different after it passes. The best example I've seen recently was the historic nor'easter of April 15-17, 2007. That one started off as snow, changed to rain, cleared a foot of clear ice from the lake with 45 mph sustained winds, lots of damage, but by the time it was over the lake was almost at iceout, and the weather pattern was favorable for warm air to move in. A week later, we were hitting 80 and iceout was declared.

No major pattern change for at least the next several days, however. This is dangerous cold for the entire area. For the rest of the week, we will not likely see 10 degrees again until maybe Saturday, perhaps Sunday.

On Black Cat Island we had snow showers while the front passed, then the wind picked up to 30 mph in the predawn hours, bringing in the cold. Temps since sunrise have been in the single numbers and continue to fall. An hour ago we were at 7 degrees... now we are 4 degrees. This trend will continue.

Tomorrow will have a high of about 5. Tomorrow night will be the coldest night in at least 2 years for much of the area... I would not be surprised to see a reading of 20 below zero (actual air temp) somewhere in the lakes region on Friday morning.

Friday's high will probably not reach zero. I'll go for a high of 2 below zero on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being colder.

Friday and Saturday nights will be "warmer" but still below zero. Doesn't look like we start to see moderation in the cold air until early next week. As R2B stated, it may take a storm to change the pattern.

01-14-2009, 10:00 AM	#16
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	R2B is right in saying this will likely flop over to a warm spell. That's what happens. All winter long, the cold air tends to punch down from Canada on one side of the country or another. In response, the warm air bounces up where the cold air isn't punching down. When the western US gets the bitter cold punching down from Canada, the southern warm air reacts by bouncing up, and so we get warmth like what we had between Christmas and New Years. Then it all flopped, with the cold air moving east and barging the warmth out of its way, and here we are. He also brings up a good point - storms are great agents of change in weather patterns. The stronger the storm, the more likely it is that the pattern will be different after it passes. The best example I've seen recently was the historic nor'easter of April 15-17, 2007. That one started off as snow, changed to rain, cleared a foot of clear ice from the lake with 45 mph sustained winds, lots of damage, but by the time it was over the lake was almost at iceout, and the weather pattern was favorable for warm air to move in. A week later, we were hitting 80 and iceout was declared. No major pattern change for at least the next several days, however. This is dangerous cold for the entire area. For the rest of the week, we will not likely see 10 degrees again until maybe Saturday, perhaps Sunday. On Black Cat Island we had snow showers while the front passed, then the wind picked up to 30 mph in the predawn hours, bringing in the cold. Temps since sunrise have been in the single numbers and continue to fall. An hour ago we were at 7 degrees... now we are 4 degrees. This trend will continue. Tomorrow will have a high of about 5. Tomorrow night will be the coldest night in at least 2 years for much of the area... I would not be surprised to see a reading of 20 below zero (actual air temp) somewhere in the lakes region on Friday morning. Friday's high will probably not reach zero. I'll go for a high of 2 below zero on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being colder. Friday and Saturday nights will be "warmer" but still below zero. Doesn't look like we start to see moderation in the cold air until early next week. As R2B stated, it may take a storm to change the pattern.