Quote:
Originally Posted by BoulderBronco
Seems this is a great thing for snowmobiling but could be a bad thing for fishing conditions. From what I have heard it's already a bit slushy in areas. Another foot+ on top of that and it will be a mess. We don't want a repeat of last year. Any chance all this slush/snow will just freeze and the conditions become perfect?
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If a bunch of people get out there with snow machines and pack it all down during the storm it should be fine!
What's out there right now in front of Black Cat is very hard wind-pack like you find on the mountain summits. It is not like last year at all. It looks fluffy in the WeatherCam but it has in the high winds and extreme cold it has formed very solid drifts that you can walk on top of, without snowshoes.
Rose, I'm with you... I'd like to see the same ECMWF as you are looking for. I did read in Taunton's discussion (and agree) that the dense cold air mass plus the healthy snowcover all over New England will likely play a role in keeping the storm track south of the Mass Pike. I see a repeat or a near-repeat of what happened on Sunday the 18th.
My forecast for the Lakes Region is based on a local phenomenon I have observed for 3 years now... the lake itself acts as a funnel for wind coming off the ocean. For example, during some past winter storms where snow has changed to sleet and freezing rain along the coast, on the island we've gotten the coastal changeover (with strong SE winds) even while Moultonborough and Laconia were both still snowing and wind from the NE...
My hypothesis is the tongue of ocean influence comes farther inland than it otherwise would, because of the lake acting as a resistance-free channel for it. I've based a few forecasts on it, with success.
On Sunday the 18th I noticed the snowfall amounts were greatest along the coast and also along a corridor from Rochester to Center Harbor. The wind had been bringing ocean moisture into the cold air mass, and it was reaching "only so far" inland except around this lake southeastward to the seacoast.
The SE end of the lake is relatively open to the seacoast, so all an easterly air current has to do is catch the hills & mountains to the west of Rochester and Alton which steer it into the tip of Alton Bay, and then it gets a free ride between the Belknaps on the southern shore and the Ossipees on the northern shore, until it hits the Squam Mountains at the Center Harbor end and stops.