Housing Market (& Mea Culpa)

[thinkxingu]

I apologize if I grenaded the other housing market thread (it's locked now). I messaged the Webmaster asking him to delete my comment and reopen it, as I thought it was a fine thread, but I've not heard back.


Anyway: does anybody know roughly how many homes are typically on the market in a given area in fall? Someone mentioned there's only one in Wolfeboro—for $1M or something—but I don't think there's ever a lot of inventory at this time?

I know for Arcadia that almost all sales are completed by August and don't really resume until late winter/early spring, but I'm wondering if that's simply because we're a seasonal place.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[tis]

Are you thinking of the one that is for sale for $10 million in Wolfeboro?

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by tis

Are you thinking of the one that is for sale for $10 million in Wolfeboro?

I thought there was one for $1M, too, but maybe. A quick run-through of realtor.com just now is a series of "pending" with only a few "new."

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Paugus Bay Resident]

There are about 30 listed on Zillow right now, from about $80K to the $10M one

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Paugus Bay Resident

There are about 30 listed on Zillow right now, from about $80K to the $10M one

80k or 800k? I’m sure there’s not much in Wolfeboro for 80 K.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by joey2665

80k or 800k? I’m sure there’s not much in Wolfeboro for 80 K.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Land?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Land?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Could be good point.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Land?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

It’s a small trailer.

[winterh]

last I looked only 1 Winni waterfront listing and its 10 million. I would guess its pretty tight off the water as well but I have never seen literally no inventory on water.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

It’s a small trailer.

Thanks! I was gonna look but was torn between a son asking about his Halloween costume, a daughter asking about making French toast, and a book I had 20 pages left in. The book won!

I happened to talk to a few people yesterday, and two couples mentioned they had friends lined up for places if they could only find them. I'll be interested to see if the market slows down in the off-season or if limited options will keep it hot. A crazy year, for sure.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Biggd]

I feel very fortunate that I bought 6 years ago.
This year esp, its been a great escape from the city.

[joey2665]

Just had seen an add on a winnipesaukee Facebook page by a broker looking for homes in the 1M range for a client in the wolfboro area.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[mswlogo]

Zillow shows about 125 “waterfront” properties for sale around all the lakes. That might include ponds and rivers.

I don’t know what’s normal. Many over priced. Many have been listed for a good while.

[TheRoBoat]

In addition to the 30 homes mentioned, there appear to be 28 land listings in and around Wolfboro.

Most expensive building lot is a little over an acre/100 ft waterfront on Crescent for 495K

[ApS]

The $10M house is on Wolfeboro Neck--facing the Broads. At the time if its construction, it was a strange apparition built on the prior "nestled-cottage" 50-foot "footprint", maybe a decade ago.

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I apologize if I grenaded the other housing market thread (it's locked now). I messaged the Webmaster asking him to delete my comment and reopen it, as I thought it was a fine thread, but I've not heard back. Anyway: does anybody know roughly how many homes are typically on the market in a given area in fall? Someone mentioned there's only one in Wolfeboro—for $1M or something—but I don't think there's ever a lot of inventory at this time? I know for Arcadia that almost all sales are completed by August and don't really resume until late winter/early spring, but I'm wondering if that's simply because we're a seasonal place.

You would be hard-pressed to indoctrinate these readers.

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I feel very fortunate that I bought 6 years ago.
This year esp, its been a great escape from the city.

Hence, the price appreciation.

[Biggd]

A house across the street from me on Lake Waukewan in Meredith that sold in Feb for 715K and used as a AIR B&B, just went on the market for 1.15 Million.
They have made no improvements to the property at all so that would be a hell of a profit for 8 months ownership if it sells.
I hope they get it because anyone that is willing to pay that for it will most likely use it for themselves.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Biggd

A house across the street from me on Lake Waukewan that sold in Feb for 715K and used as a AIR B&B, just went on the market for 1.15 Million.
They have made no improvements to the property at all so that would be a hell of a profit for 8 months ownership if it sells.
I hope they get it because anyone that is willing to pay that for it will most likely use it for themselves.

Never going to get that price. I keep tabs on the market in Laconia and Meredith. It is starting to slow down a bit and asking prices have been dropping. Check out Realtor.com or Zillow in the range of 700k-2M

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Never going to get that price. I keep tabs on the market in Laconia and Meredith. It is starting to slow down a bit and asking prices have been dropping. Check out Realtor.com or Zillow i the range of 700k-2M


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

They are obviously just fishing but I could see it selling in the 9's, still would be a tremendous profit for 8 months esp sinse it was bought as an investment property.
The A frame directly across the street from me sold a few months ago at 550K and is going through a complete gut job rebuild. By the time she is through she will have close to a million in it and it's still an A frame.
Some crazy people out there!

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Biggd

They are obviously just fishing but I could see it selling in the 9's, still would be a tremendous profit for 8 months esp sinse it was bought as an investment property.
The A frame directly across the street from me sold a few months ago at 550K and is going through a complete gut job rebuild. By the time she is through she will have close to a million in it and it's still an A frame.
Some crazy people out there!

Unless you plan on staying for a very long time and getting the use out of the home, over investing in a property is a bad financial move.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Biggd]

Oh, I agree but some people just have too much money. The A frame should have been torn down but builders were telling her it would take 2 years to get her in a newly built home on that lot. She just didn't want to wait that long.
I was going to buy the A frame and rent it out but my wife said no. I never would have done what she is doing to it.

Originally Posted by joey2665

Unless you plan on staying for a very long time and getting the use out of the home, over investing in a property is a bad financial move.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[TheTimeTraveler]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Unless you plan on staying for a very long time and getting the use out of the home, over investing in a property is a bad financial move.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Yes, I agree. Look at all those folks who purchased in 2007. It took them almost 10 years before they could possibly break even.....

[Descant]

I'm not a tax guy, but I can see buying AMZN a couple of years ago at $850 and spending some weeks at a vacation "rental", later sold at a loss. Shore front vacation property is a commodity, like any other.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Descant

I'm not a tax guy, but I can see buying AMZN a couple of years ago at $850 and spending some weeks at a vacation "rental", later sold at a loss. Shore front vacation property is a commodity, like any other.

True but even in a great location you can overbuild and or overspend

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[ApS]

Originally Posted by joey2665

True but even in a great location you can overbuild and or overspend

We will ALL have "overspent" if the lake goes kerpluey...

[Biggd]

22 Sawmill Shores Rd. is under agreement, crazy! I have noticed some properties that are way over priced are taking additional conditional offers. I wonder if these places are having trouble getting apprasials high enough to qualify for the mortgages?

Originally Posted by joey2665

Never going to get that price. I keep tabs on the market in Laconia and Meredith. It is starting to slow down a bit and asking prices have been dropping. Check out Realtor.com or Zillow i the range of 700k-2M


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Biggd

22 Sawmill Shores Rd. is under agreement, crazy! I have noticed some properties that are way over priced are taking additional conditional offers. I wonder if these places are having trouble getting apprasials high enough to qualify for the mortgages?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

I wonder what the contract price is. Oddly enough and I know the numbers are perfect but the asking price is equal to the Zillow estimate.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Biggd]

They bought it in Feb for 715K after it was on the market for a while at 785K. Anything over a million is a great ROI for 10 months ownership. It was purchased as a rental, and it was rented all summer long.

Originally Posted by joey2665

I wonder what the contract price is. Oddly enough and I know the numbers are perfect but the asking price is equal to the Zillow estimate.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Biggd

They bought it in Feb for 715K after it was on the market for a while at 785K. Anything over a million is a great ROI for 10 months ownership. It was purchased as a rental, and it was rented all summer long.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Could be purchasing as an investment property also and used a cap rate to arrive at the sale price.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Biggd]

I hope it's not a rental any longer. We didn't have any major issues but there were a few Saturday night noisy parties into the early morning hours.

Originally Posted by joey2665

Could be purchasing as an investment property also and used a cap rate to arrive at the sale price.

Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[barefootbay]

Originally Posted by ApS

We will ALL have "overspent" if the lake goes kerpluey...

What will go kerpluey first the country or the lake . I think it is a close race!

[Winilyme]

I don't really get Zillow. Like many, I check out Zillow's Zestimate of my property periodically and it can vary by hundreds of thousands in very short periods of time (months). I've seen it go up or down in single $50,000 spurts.
Others, Realty Trac, Redfin, etc., always seem lower, more stable and more in line with what I'm thinking makes sense. This isn't just in the current market...it always seems to be this way. Zillow is typically a lot higher.

It would be interesting to know what goes into their algorithm and what makes it so different from the others. Anyone have any insight into this?

[Descant]

Over the last several years I have talked to real estate professions. Nobody had kind words for Zillow.

[TiltonBB]

I agree that Zillow is usually inaccurate. There are alot more accurate ways to determine the value of a property.

Here is what they say about their method for determining value:

A Zestimate is an estimate of a home’s value based almost entirely on publicly available information. So what’s the formula? Think of it as Zillow’s version of 11 herbs and spices, or our secret sauce. That is, it’s a proprietary calculation based on past sales, mortgage records, tax assessments and building documents, including the age and size of the home. And the formula changes as new data and information emerges.

All that data gets crunched and calculated by a computer program and turned into a best-guess Zestimate of your home’s value. Zestimates include in a low to high value range with your home’s true market value likely to fall somewhere within that range. What the secret formula can’t factor in are any upgrades and intangibles that don’t make it into county records.

[Biggd]

I like the Zillow site because it's more user friendly, IMO. But I don't put much stock in their Zestimate. They usually are much higher than other sites but obviously that's what sellers like to see.
This market has gone up so fast it's tough to keep up.
My wife said yesterday, "let's put the place up for sale and see what we could get". But then what?
Even if I got double what I have into it what would it take to buy something better?
I'm perfectly happy with what I have.

[mswlogo]

Looks like things are still pretty hot

Nice house with rental but on a Postage stamp lot, crowded, across the street for $1.575m

People can ask what ever they want but 1 day on Zillow 1300 views 40 saves

Curious what it ends up selling for.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...86710446_zpid/

[TheTimeTraveler]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

Looks like things are still pretty hot

Nice house with rental but on a Postage stamp lot, crowded, across the street for $1.575m

People can ask what ever they want but 1 day on Zillow 1300 views 40 saves

Curious what it ends up selling for.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...86710446_zpid/

Considering they only paid $950K for it in June of 2019 then that's a great return on their investment!

[winterh]

Nicely done on the inside, plenty of docking and it does have a rental (maybe 2?) but I can't imagine paying that money to be across the street from the lake. Then again I couldn't imagine any of the numbers I see lately. I love my place but gosh its tempting to just cash out. If I ever succumb to that rational or greedy side I will come here first and I ask that you folks please talk me out of it.

[Biggd]

Just because they get looks and saves doesn't mean it's going to sell.
I look at RE every day and save homes too but I'm not a serious buyer at todays prices.
I've noticed a lot of properties with a "contingent" label. When you click the tab it says "an offer has been accepted but owners are taking back up offers".
Is it contingent on the owners not being able to get the highest $$$$$$$$. What's that about?
A house on my street has been "continent for about two months now because it's sooo over priced.

[Sue Doe-Nym]

Originally Posted by Biggd

Just because they get looks and saves doesn't mean it's going to sell.
I look at RE every day and save homes too but I'm not a serious buyer at todays prices.
I've noticed a lot of properties with a "contingent" label. When you click the tab it says "an offer has been accepted but owners are taking back up offers".
Is it contingent on the owners not being able to get the highest $$$$$$$$. What's that about?
A house on my street has been "continent for about two months now because it's sooo over priced.

It means that there are items in the contract that haven’t been satisfied, such as financing, home inspection, septic inspection, radon, asbestos, as examples. The backup offers are there in the event that the buyer walks as a result of unsatisfactory solutions to the contingencies in the contract.

[TiltonBB]

The lake area real estate remains hot and in demand. In the past two weeks I have sold two waterfront condos with docks and both had multiple offers and went above the asking price in less than 10 days. I think the tight market for docks on Winnipesaukee had a lot to do with that.

I am moving in Florida and put the current house (that I have been in for 14 years) on the market. There were no open houses, but in the first two days there have been 12 showings and there are 5 more scheduled for today. An offer above the asking price came in last night and if nothing better shows up today I will probably accept it. A total of 5 days on the market.

People continue to escape the cities and the work from home thing makes it even easier to relocate to places like New Hampshire or Florida. It beats Manhattan by a long shot!

[joey2665]

Tilton is certainly does best NYC and Long Island. I lived there for 55 years and moved here this past July. Not Covid related I had planned moving here for years when my son started high school.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by Sue Doe-Nym

It means that there are items in the contract that haven’t been satisfied, such as financing, home inspection, septic inspection, radon, asbestos, as examples. The backup offers are there in the event that the buyer walks as a result of unsatisfactory solutions to the contingencies in the contract.

Right.

But I wouldn't call it strictly as "Buyer Walks". Buyer may want it but can't get the financing or something. Also another big one is appraisal (which directly affects financing). If appraisal is well below the contract price the buyer might need a larger down payment than they planned on. Contingencies can go both ways in that a Seller can walk too if buyer does not meet some contingencies on the contract. Say if the buyer doesn't get the inspection done by a certain date, the seller can "Walk".

Two months with backup offers still being accepted is a bad sign for the deal but not unheard of. Nor does it mean it was overpriced. So many things can make some deals complex. Like one house we almost got needed court approval because one member of an estate was against the sale. Another needed some boundaries checked etc. And surveyors, appraisers, inspectors etc. were pretty backed up by fall.

[Biggd]

Oh, this house is over priced. I'm thinking the appraisal is not coming in high enough and the buyer has to come up with more money or the buyers have to sell their property first before they can proceed. It's a rental on FSBO so the owners are still making money while waiting.

Originally Posted by mswlogo

Right.

But I wouldn't call it strictly as "Buyer Walks". Buyer may want it but can't get the financing or something. Also another big one is appraisal (which directly affects financing). If appraisal is well below the contract price the buyer might need a larger down payment than they planned on. Contingencies can go both ways in that a Seller can walk too if buyer does not meet some contingencies on the contract. Say if the buyer doesn't get the inspection done by a certain date, the seller can "Walk".

Two months with backup offers still being accepted is a bad sign for the deal but not unheard of. Nor does it mean it was overpriced. So many things can make some deals complex. Like one house we almost got needed court approval because one member of an estate was against the sale. Another needed some boundaries checked etc. And surveyors, appraisers, inspectors etc. were pretty backed up by fall.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Biggd

Oh, this house is over priced. I'm thinking the appraisal is not coming in high enough and the buyer has to come up with more money or the buyers have to sell their property first before they can proceed. It's a rental on FSBO so the owners are still making money while waiting.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Could also be that the buyers don't want to take possession of it as a rental with tenants living there. I know I wouldn't.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Could also be that the buyers don't want to take possession of it as a rental with tenants living there. I know I wouldn't.

It's been contingent for 2 months now. Recently it's only been weekenders so I'm not sure that's it but I don't know. I would have thought it would have passed by now but something is holding it up.
It's the only rental in my neighborhood so I'm hoping it goes through.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by Biggd

It's been contingent for 2 months now. Recently it's only been weekenders so I'm not sure that's it but I don't know. I would have thought it would have passed by now but something is holding it up.
It's the only rental in my neighborhood so I'm hoping it goes through.

It’s difficult to know what’s going on without firsthand knowledge. I’ve seen contingent on properties which eventually closed within the reasonable time period of sales. Two months isn’t unreasonable. My property was under agreement for six weeks. I didn’t get final papers to sign until two days before closing. While it seemed like an eternity for me, with the volume of real estate changing hands, it was reasonable.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by Biggd

It's been contingent for 2 months now. Recently it's only been weekenders so I'm not sure that's it but I don't know. I would have thought it would have passed by now but something is holding it up.
It's the only rental in my neighborhood so I'm hoping it goes through.

So finally got notification that the house on my street just passed at $1,084300 a year after it was purchased for $720,000.
I know for a fact the the people that sold it made no improvements in the year that they owned it and it was rented pretty consistently on FRBO at $300 a night. Quite a profitable investment!
Of course I'm thrilled as it won't be a rental any longer.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Biggd

So finally got notification that the house on my street just passed at $1,084300 a year after it was purchased for $720,000.
I know for a fact the the people that sold it made no improvements in the year that they owned it and it was rented pretty consistently on FRBO at $300 a night. Quite a profitable investment!
Of course I'm thrilled as it won't be a rental any longer.

Puts those tax assessments in a certain perspective, doesn't it?

[8gv]

In FL they have a property tax mitigation program called "Save Our Homes".

If you own the property as your primary residence you can reduce the tax escalation to 2% a year.

The program allows continuance as the owner sells and buys another primary residence which has had its tax increases controlled in this manner.

If the property is sold to an owner who has not been eligible for the program continuance the taxes go to the current market level.

This helps people stay in their homes.

Here in NH, rising real estate values don't really help you until you sell.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by Biggd

So finally got notification that the house on my street just passed at $1,084300 a year after it was purchased for $720,000.
I know for a fact the the people that sold it made no improvements in the year that they owned it and it was rented pretty consistently on FRBO at $300 a night. Quite a profitable investment!
Of course I'm thrilled as it won't be a rental any longer.

How do you know it won't be a rental anymore?
$300/night doesn't seem like much for a $1MM vacation property.

[TheTimeTraveler]

Speculating on Real Estate while the real estate market is rising (and very hot) can be a good thing.

But, alas, all good things do come to an end at some point. Think of all those poor folks who purchased Real Estate back in 2006 and 2007 before the bottom fell out.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by Descant

How do you know it won't be a rental anymore?
$300/night doesn't seem like much for a $1MM vacation property.

I don't, but I find it hard to believe that they would pay that much and rent it out.
The people that owned it before were from NH. I saw a Tesla in the driveway yesterday with a Mass plate so I'm assuming that is the new owner that drove up to pass on the property but they are gone today. I guess I won't know for sure until I meet the new owners, hopefully soon.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I don't but I find it hard to believe that they would pay that much and rent it out.
The people that owned it before were from NH. I saw a Tesla in the driveway yesterday with a Mass plate so I'm assuming that is the new owner that drove up to pass on the property but they are gone today. I guess I won't know for sure until I meet the new owners, hopefully soon.

So, in a few months, Covid will taper off and the market bubble will burst. The new owners will go back to NJ or CT or where ever because it is too long a drive, and it will be rental again because previous tenants will keep calling to renew. Tough cycle to break. Good luck.

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by Descant

So, in a few months, Covid will taper off and the market bubble will burst. The new owners will go back to NJ or CT or where ever because it is too long a drive, and it will be rental again because previous tenants will keep calling to renew. Tough cycle to break. Good luck.

That’s not what’s going to happen.

COVID opened the eyes of employers and employees that they can be more productive working from home.

Lot’s of people are moving out of the city, for good.

COVID also put a damper on public transportation, for long after the worst of COVID is over. Another reason to bail commuting to the city and just going remote. It’s also gonna make traffic worse for the ones that drive into the city.

A lot of people on the edge of retirement, decided to retire early.

It may not be as crazy as it was but I suspect the bubble won’t pop.

The people buying these homes are not the ones that lost their jobs due to COVID either.

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

That’s not what’s going to happen.

COVID opened the eyes of employers and employees that they can be more productive working from home.

Lot’s of people are moving out of the city, for good.

COVID also put a damper on public transportation, for long after the worst of COVID is over. Another reason to bail commuting to the city and just going remote. It’s also gonna make traffic worse for the ones that drive into the city.

A lot of people on the edge of retirement, decided to retire early.

It may not be as crazy as it was but I suspect the bubble won’t pop.

The people buying these homes are not the ones that lost their jobs due to COVID either.

I agree that this trend will continue for long into the future. The office building market will have a glut of vacancies because, as stated above, employers found out that working from home, works well. And, there are no snow days!

People working from home are enjoying sleeping a little later and finding that they are putting substantially fewer miles on their cars and saving on gasoline.

This is a national movement of people getting away from the big cities and that lifestyle. It is estimated that 970 people a day are permanently moving to Florida. The Florida furniture stores and building material stores are having difficulty keeping enough inventory to meet the demand.

Real estate in the Lake's Region continues to be hot. A property listed for $550,000 two weeks ago in Gunstock Acres had 10 offers and sold for over $700,000 in a matter of days.

It’s not surprising that the most significant growth areas are in the South and Southeast, especially Houston and Dallas in Texas, Florida and the Carolinas.

[Biggd]

If there is a bubble to burst there will be a lot of people on the losing end.
You just never know what the next recession will bring. There will be one, we just don't know when. I'm just glad I'm retired.
Most of these young workers have not experienced a recession in their working lifetime yet. My son is 33 and it's been nothing but up since he graduated from College. How they handle a down turn will be a new experience.

[Winilyme]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

ThatÂ’s not whatÂ’s going to happen.

COVID opened the eyes of employers and employees that they can be more productive working from home.

LotÂ’s of people are moving out of the city, for good.

COVID also put a damper on public transportation, for long after the worst of COVID is over. Another reason to bail commuting to the city and just going remote. ItÂ’s also gonna make traffic worse for the ones that drive into the city.

A lot of people on the edge of retirement, decided to retire early.

It may not be as crazy as it was but I suspect the bubble wonÂ’t pop.

The people buying these homes are not the ones that lost their jobs due to COVID either.

No one really knows what's going to happen. I work for a large commercial real estate firm and a lot of time and effort is spent trying to project near and long-term trends. What folks in my business generally agree on now is that the pandemic has accelerated previously obscure trends and we are, in 2021, where many thought we could be five or ten years from now - more willing to embrace technology to give us new workplace options. Where companies were experimenting gingerly with remote working prior to COVID, they have in one year been literally forced to implement it.

Keep in mind that up until COVID, there was a long trend toward moving back into cities. An aging population in the suburbs didn't need the big home, maintenance was tiresome, commutes required to do anything were inconvenient, socially distanced neighborhoods were unattractive, there was a lack of entertainment and, in some parts of the country, less proximity to quality healthcare. A lot of this hinged on baby boomers entering their retirement years and young workers looking for opportunity and adventure. These dynamics haven't really changed in my mind and I give it a fair chance that the tide will turn post-COVID and people will once again gravitate toward cities for what they provide - social interaction and amenities that aren't readily available in the suburbs. Also, these cities will be plotting strategies to attract people back - chiefly I believe by becoming more environmentally conscious and by focusing on personal wellbeing. Humans are social creatures and I believe it's easier for cities to meet that need by fine tuning what they currently have versus suburbs having to reinvent themselves from scratch. I just don't see people in mass permanently leaving the excitement of the city for the calm of a suburb.

Perhaps we'll settle into some sort of hybrid end-state - one where we separate 'city' from 'workplace' and understand that they aren't necessarily inextricably linked. I believe many people will return to cities because there are countless reasons to enjoy living in one. And, yes, in those cities people will work - but they will do so from their apartment or condo or the park or corner café - and then occasionally head into a company's strategically consolidated office space for meetings and employee collaboration (which most agree is important for a healthy organization). Of course, these people will still need the periodic escape to the lake for a change of pace and perhaps in the new normal, they'll stay for a good deal longer than they would have in the past.

[thinkxingu]

I keep going back to "Americans have a short memory." Many have already forgotten The Great Recession and how much that crippled huge swaths of people, so, barring any crazy Covid mutations, I'm thinking if vaccines continue to exponentially increase, we'll be back to normal by summer or next fall.

Sure, there may be some holdovers—some might be good, like personal masks for people who are sick and increased hygiene—but I'm thinking the shift won't be nearly as seismic as some have predicted.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I keep going back to "Americans have a short memory." Many have already forgotten The Great Recession and how much that crippled huge swaths of people, so, barring any crazy Covid mutations, I'm thinking if vaccines continue to exponentially increase, we'll be back to normal by summer or next fall.

Sure, there may be some holdovers—some might be good, like personal masks for people who are sick and increased hygiene—but I'm thinking the shift won't be nearly as seismic as some have predicted.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

A couple of thoughts:

As I'm sure Wily would point out, we don't need seismic shifts in people to have large shifts in real estate values--it's the last few percent that make a real estate project profitable or that send prices skyrocketing.

Also, keep in mind that you're in a profession that benefits greatly from in person attendance. A seismic (haha) number of people are happier working from home than in their offices. The strongest members of this group will insist on more time working from home, less in the office, and this will ripple through for all. Pretty sure that Facebook and Google, two companies with very powerful workforces, have already acknowledged this

[JEEPONLY]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I keep going back to "Americans have a short memory." Many have already forgotten The Great Recession and how much that crippled huge swaths of people, so, barring any crazy Covid mutations, I'm thinking if vaccines continue to exponentially increase, we'll be back to normal by summer or next fall.

Sure, there may be some holdovers—some might be good, like personal masks for people who are sick and increased hygiene—but I'm thinking the shift won't be nearly as seismic as some have predicted.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Yes! Pick the lifestyle you prefer and work toward it.
Just as "fair and equal are not the same"- so is true of "living the life v. feeling comfortable and secure".

I moved out of the fast lane to experience my life- not to just live it!

[MeredithMan]

This is not really lake-related, but it is another data point on how crazy the RE market is right now. We have family friends who recently retired and they decided to sell their house, buy an RV, and tour the country. Their home is a late 1950's split-level in Framingham, MA. Listed the house for $589K. In the first weekend, they had 25, (yes, TWENTY FIVE), offers and accepted a cash offer $90K over asking price. They close in 3 weeks.

I've also heard from realtor acquaintances on the lake that many offers now contain "escalation clauses", whereby the buyer writes into the offer that they will go $___ over their offer, and it's usually 50-100K over.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

This is not really lake-related, but it is another data point on how crazy the RE market is right now. We have family friends who recently retired and they decided to sell their house, buy an RV, and tour the country. Their home is a late 1950's split-level in Framingham, MA. Listed the house for $589K. In the first weekend, they had 25, (yes, TWENTY FIVE), offers and accepted a cash offer $90K over asking price. They close in 3 weeks.

I've also heard from realtor acquaintances on the lake that many offers now contain "escalation clauses", whereby the buyer writes into the offer that they will go $___ over their offer, and it's usually 50-100K over.

It's related enough, MM. There was a great article in the paper a few days ago that describes how the pandemic has led to some people not wanting to sell/move, and that has caused a ripple effect in the market leading to plummeting inventory, and hence skyrocketing prices, as we see on the lake.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/u...uses-gone.html

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

It's related enough, MM. There was a great article in the paper a few days ago that describes how the pandemic has led to some people not wanting to sell/move, and that has caused a ripple effect in the market leading to plummeting inventory, and hence skyrocketing prices, as we see on the lake.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/u...uses-gone.html

I believe many baby boomers are reluctant to sell because they are afraid to be a buyer in this market and afraid they will have no place to go.
I want to sell my house in Ma and move to my lake house but my wife is not ready for that. I personally think this spring is going to be the top of the market or very close to it.
Once we get everyone vaccinated and back to work, the economy is going to heat up and inflation will make interest rates go up.
I don't think it will turn into a buyers market but I do think the price increases will slow down to a more normal market, JMO.

[jazzman]

I'm curious if island properties will pop 25% like mainland has in the past 6 months when they finally can hit the market again in a few weeks. Maybe not since it can't be your permanent home with a remote office.

My dream of selling my southern NH house getting something with at least a view of Winni and living on Barndoor Island in the summer is fading fast.

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

This is not really lake-related, but it is another data point on how crazy the RE market is right now. We have family friends who recently retired and they decided to sell their house, buy an RV, and tour the country. Their home is a late 1950's split-level in Framingham, MA. Listed the house for $589K. In the first weekend, they had 25, (yes, TWENTY FIVE), offers and accepted a cash offer $90K over asking price. They close in 3 weeks.

I've also heard from realtor acquaintances on the lake that many offers now contain "escalation clauses", whereby the buyer writes into the offer that they will go $___ over their offer, and it's usually 50-100K over.

Wow. We are thinking of retiring to our house in NH. Problem is, it isn't built yet. A friend suggested we sell now and rent with the hot market. The thought of that makes me crazy. I thought our home in MA was worth $400K-ish (bank appraised it for $425K about 3 years ago I think). A 1970's Split with a new attached two car garage, in ground pool. 0.5 Acre. It has owned Solar too. About 15 miles west of Framingham. Good schools. Park and school walking distance. Maybe it's worth a lot more than I thought.

[8gv]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

Wow. We are thinking of retiring to our house in NH. Problem is, it isn't built yet. A friend suggested we sell now and rent with the hot market. The thought of that makes me crazy. I thought our home in MA was worth $400K-ish (bank appraised it for $425K about 3 years ago I think). A 1970's Split with a new attached two car garage, in ground pool. 0.5 Acre. It has owned Solar too. About 15 miles west of Framingham. Good schools. Park and school walking distance. Maybe it's worth a lot more than I thought.

Those who have the next place bought or being built should consider selling now and renting.

Once interest rates climb the prices will begin to fall.

Job losses will accelerate the price decline.

You will likely get the highest price if you sell now.

[Sue Doe-Nym]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

This is not really lake-related, but it is another data point on how crazy the RE market is right now. We have family friends who recently retired and they decided to sell their house, buy an RV, and tour the country. Their home is a late 1950's split-level in Framingham, MA. Listed the house for $589K. In the first weekend, they had 25, (yes, TWENTY FIVE), offers and accepted a cash offer $90K over asking price. They close in 3 weeks.

I've also heard from realtor acquaintances on the lake that many offers now contain "escalation clauses", whereby the buyer writes into the offer that they will go $___ over their offer, and it's usually 50-100K over.

We retired from the real estate business several years ago, so the concept of an escalation clause in the contract would keep me awake at night. Most realtors are honest, but I can imagine a shady listing agent maneuvering so that the buyer wound up paying the higher amount. I asked a real estate attorney friend about it, and he is familiar with its usage. He says he would never recommend having a buyer put that clause into a contract.

[Descant]

I know a young attorney who is currently in the buying mode and has made offers with an escalation clause, with a cap. He is also a licensed RE agent. His bid still wasn't enough due to his cap, but he is quite comfortable with the process and offer. If you ant to make such an offer, an hour with a lawyer who deals in RE is probably worth an hours fee. S/He should be reviewing all paperwork anyway, not just a RE agent. No matter how the deal works, realtors are on commission. The only un-connected party is your lawyer.

[Blue Thunder]

Escalation clauses in this market are more common that not. I just sold my brothers house on the North Shore of Massachusetts. House was shown over the course of just 3 days with a deadline set for offers. We had numerous offers, ALL for over the asking price. Most of them had escalation clauses in $2k, $5k, and $10k increments! House sold for $90k over asking price. Crazy times indeed.

My wife and I are strongly considering selling our home and renting. I recently retired and she is about 1-2 years out from retirement as well. It is very tempting....

BT

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Escalation clauses in this market are more common that not. I just sold my brothers house on the North Shore of Massachusetts. House was shown over the course of just 3 days with a deadline set for offers. We had numerous offers, ALL for over the asking price. Most of them had escalation clauses in $2k, $5k, and $10k increments! House sold for $90k over asking price. Crazy times indeed.

My wife and I are strongly considering selling our home and renting. I recently retired and she is about 1-2 years out from retirement as well. It is very tempting....

BT

Interesting idea on selling/renting—let's take a moment to consider the equation. In my head, it would come down to "escalated/inflated" sale proceeds - rental fees vs. sale proceeds in a couple years?

So, if you could make an extra $100k now but rented for 3 years at $1500/mth. (fair average rent?) you'd have an extra $46K. Of course, there'd be real estate tax, maintenance, etc. savings which would also add up.

The presumption, of course, would be that whatever house you'd settle on would have gone down in price in that three years, but it's an interesting proposition for one so close to retirement.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[TiltonBB]

The price escalation seems to be happening in many places, with the exception of the big cities.

In one new Florida neighborhood, of about 800 homes, lots started selling about 18 months ago for $160,000. The same lots today start at $500,000.

One person who bought early (18 months ago) had about $1.1 million total into his property and decided to sell. He listed at $1.5 million and sold at $1.4. That is a nice profit!

It does get tempting to sell your home at the top of the market, take a profit, and wait for the decline to buy back in.

But what if you really like your house? What if the decline doesn't happen this time? What value would you put on missing a summer at the lake?

[8gv]

An additional expense involved in the "sell, rent, buy later" plan is storage of all one's stuff.

Also, if the "buy later" property needs to be financed there is exposure to the inevitable interest rate increases.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by 8gv

An additional expense involved in the "sell, rent, buy later" plan is storage of all one's stuff.

Also, if the "buy later" property needs to be financed there is exposure to the inevitable interest rate increases.

AND cost of refurnishing, potentially, both.

MSW, above, also pointed out the "value of missed time" portion of the equation (which, incidentally, I've appreciated throughout all of his posts). Buying at Arcadia was absolutely a questionable financial decision at the time, but I knew it was my family's chance to live that life before my children got too old. They are now 9 & 11, and I'm forever grateful we took the leap.

Any other variables to selling high with the hopes of getting in low in the future?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

The price escalation seems to be happening in many places, with the exception of the big cities.

In one new Florida neighborhood, of about 800 homes, lots started selling about 18 months ago for $160,000. The same lots today start at $500,000.

One person who bought early (18 months ago) had about $1.1 million total into his property and decided to sell. He listed at $1.5 million and sold at $1.4. That is a nice profit!

It does get tempting to sell your home at the top of the market, take a profit, and wait for the decline to buy back in.

But what if you really like your house? What if the decline doesn't happen this time? What value would you put on missing a summer at the lake?

I know people who have done the sell, rent, and wait for prices to come down in the past. That's great for young people with no kids but it can take quite a long time for the bargains to become available. If you're older and retired it's tough to put your life on hold and wait for the down turn.
In my case I still have a home in Ma and a home in NH so I have a place to go. But my wife is not ready, she will be ready when prices drop and it's a buyers market.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Escalation clauses in this market are more common that not. I just sold my brothers house on the North Shore of Massachusetts. House was shown over the course of just 3 days with a deadline set for offers. We had numerous offers, ALL for over the asking price. Most of them had escalation clauses in $2k, $5k, and $10k increments! House sold for $90k over asking price. Crazy times indeed.

My wife and I are strongly considering selling our home and renting. I recently retired and she is about 1-2 years out from retirement as well. It is very tempting....

BT

Before you sell, be sure you can get a rental. That market is very tight. I know of one instance where a tenant moved out unexpectedly in November, usually a time when nobody wants to move. In the first 36 hours the realtor had 25 calls and several deposits/applications. This was a single family home. Big complexes and retirement communities may have extended wait lists.

[FlyingScot]

Predictions are difficult, especially about the the future.

My sister got squeezed when she decided for rent for a year or two after selling her house. Prices kept climbing, she could no longer afford what she expected.

[loonguy]

Another option, which might work for some, is rather than sell and rent for a couple of years, refinance your current home while rates are low and take some cash out to serve as a down payment on purchasing the home you want now with a low interest rate mortgage. Your current residence could become a rental property that might generate some excess cash flow and you could enjoy your next home now. Alternatively, you could rent out the new home until you are ready to make the move. Of course, there are risks as a landlord and the couple of times I moved and converted my prior residence to a rental property I had the misfortune of having deadbeat tenants who did not respect the property or their rent obligations. I still do not regret the transitions, however, because they enabled me to improve my then current and future home situations at a time when I really did not have a better alternative.

[TheTimeTraveler]

Originally Posted by loonguy

Another option, which might work for some, is rather than sell and rent for a couple of years, refinance your current home while rates are low and take some cash out to serve as a down payment on purchasing the home you want now with a low interest rate mortgage. Your current residence could become a rental property that might generate some excess cash flow and you could enjoy your next home now. Of course, there are risks as a landlord and the couple of times I moved and converted my prior residence to a rental property I had the misfortune of having deadbeat tenants who did not respect the property or their rent obligations. I still do not regret the transitions, however, because they enabled me to improve my then current and future home situations at a time when I really did not have a better alternative.

I know of several folks who owned income properties and would exclusively rent to Section 8 Tenants. The rent was guaranteed by the Government. They both became extremely wealthy as a result.

I think I would need an iron stomach to deal with property tenants but it does work for many.

[mswlogo]

My case is unique that it’s not sell, rent, buy later.

It’s sell, rent, wait for already bought property to be rebuilt.

Some mentioned taxes on selling. If it’s your primary home they wave a huge amount of capital gains. I forget the amount and it may have changed. But I think it’s $500K and it resets every few years if you live in your primary.

Tax laws could change and the rule could change.

If I couldn’t rent I could buy a used RV and park it at the new place and sell it when house is done.

Moving stuff around is a pain though. And we have almost 2 homes worth of stuff stuff in our primary. Because we didn’t want to move it into a house we plan to tear down. Storage is cheap though, assuming you can find it. That is maxed out too.

I also might be able to rent or buy close to the place wanna be at in the first place. I would not rent in MA I’d rent in NH.

I plan to pull some money out of IRA to build. Then replace it when we sell. But it will no longer be tax free compounded. So selling now is another tax win.

I would not want to wait till prices drop. Could be tomorrow or 5 years from now.

[8gv]

What if... this isn't really a bubble in the traditional sense?

What if this is inflated dollars seeking tangible assets?

As the gubmnt printing presses work 24/7 devaluing the currency, could the "value" of real property continue to rise for years to come?

It seems that holding cash is counterproductive during a period of high inflation.

So where does one put the cash?

Equities? Precious metals? Real Estate?

Does this mean the run will be longer but the fall will be steeper?

[dickiej]

What good is a $700,000 house going to do when gas is $4.50/gallon, milk is $5.00/gallon and a loaf of bread is $8.00?

[Descant]

Originally Posted by 8gv

What if... this isn't really a bubble in the traditional sense?
What if this is inflated dollars seeking tangible assets?
As the gubmnt printing presses work 24/7 devaluing the currency, could the "value" of real property continue to rise for years to come?
It seems that holding cash is counterproductive during a period of high inflation.
So where does one put the cash?
Equities? Precious metals? Real Estate?
Does this mean the run will be longer but the fall will be steeper?

1. Hard assets. Fiberglass is good. Maybe one for the lake and one for a southern winter home. Low annual taxes and unlikely capital gains tax when you sell
2. Give the money to your kids. They'll know what to do with it. No inheritance tax.
3. Make a donation in a memorial fund to the local Trustees of Trust Funds. Tax deductible donation, the trust can give some guidance as to spending, you can add to it, and you may get a brass plaque with your name on it. Don't give it to the school. They'll build something and the brass plaque will have the names of the school board on it.(LOL).

[GsChinadoll]

Originally Posted by Winilyme

No one really knows what's going to happen. I work for a large commercial real estate firm and a lot of time and effort is spent trying to project near and long-term trends. What folks in my business generally agree on now is that the pandemic has accelerated previously obscure trends and we are, in 2021, where many thought we could be five or ten years from now - more willing to embrace technology to give us new workplace options. Where companies were experimenting gingerly with remote working prior to COVID, they have in one year been literally forced to implement it.

Keep in mind that up until COVID, there was a long trend toward moving back into cities. An aging population in the suburbs didn't need the big home, maintenance was tiresome, commutes required to do anything were inconvenient, socially distanced neighborhoods were unattractive, there was a lack of entertainment and, in some parts of the country, less proximity to quality healthcare. A lot of this hinged on baby boomers entering their retirement years and young workers looking for opportunity and adventure. These dynamics haven't really changed in my mind and I give it a fair chance that the tide will turn post-COVID and people will once again gravitate toward cities for what they provide - social interaction and amenities that aren't readily available in the suburbs. Also, these cities will be plotting strategies to attract people back - chiefly I believe by becoming more environmentally conscious and by focusing on personal wellbeing. Humans are social creatures and I believe it's easier for cities to meet that need by fine tuning what they currently have versus suburbs having to reinvent themselves from scratch. I just don't see people in mass permanently leaving the excitement of the city for the calm of a suburb.

Perhaps we'll settle into some sort of hybrid end-state - one where we separate 'city' from 'workplace' and understand that they aren't necessarily inextricably linked. I believe many people will return to cities because there are countless reasons to enjoy living in one. And, yes, in those cities people will work - but they will do so from their apartment or condo or the park or corner café - and then occasionally head into a company's strategically consolidated office space for meetings and employee collaboration (which most agree is important for a healthy organization). Of course, these people will still need the periodic escape to the lake for a change of pace and perhaps in the new normal, they'll stay for a good deal longer than they would have in the past.

I think that most of these people will come to the decision that they would rather work from home but closer to the city amenities. Driving 45 minutes to shop or go to the hospital or whatever gets old quickly for most young people. few choices of t\restaurants open off-season, no ballparks close by, whatever. At least, I hope so, we wish to sell our place in southern NH and buy near the lake but since nothing is available I'm hoping these people go back to where they came from and put their properties up for sale soon!

[Biggd]

Rents are going down in the city. We could have a case where these people live in the lakes region and rent a place in the city for the few days a week that they have to go in. It may even be a case where they coop the appartment with other workers and alternate their days in the city.

Originally Posted by GsChinadoll

I think that most of these people will come to the decision that they would rather work from home but closer to the city amenities. Driving 45 minutes to shop or go to the hospital or whatever gets old quickly for most young people. few choices of t\restaurants open off-season, no ballparks close by, whatever. At least, I hope so, we wish to sell our place in southern NH and buy near the lake but since nothing is available I'm hoping these people go back to where they came from and put their properties up for sale soon!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by 8gv

What if... this isn't really a bubble in the traditional sense?

What if this is inflated dollars seeking tangible assets?

As the gubmnt printing presses work 24/7 devaluing the currency, could the "value" of real property continue to rise for years to come?

It seems that holding cash is counterproductive during a period of high inflation.

So where does one put the cash?

Equities? Precious metals? Real Estate?

Does this mean the run will be longer but the fall will be steeper?

What ever you do, you don't want your money in cash for a while.

Probably should borrow money, while it's still cheap and buy a house

[BillJohn]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I don't, but I find it hard to believe that they would pay that much and rent it out.
The people that owned it before were from NH. I saw a Tesla in the driveway yesterday with a Mass plate so I'm assuming that is the new owner that drove up to pass on the property but they are gone today. I guess I won't know for sure until I meet the new owners, hopefully soon.

I know some people who bought a house for 1.5 million and then put in another 500K who then advertise the property for rent and that it sleeps 20! Why someone would do that is a mystery to me.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by BillJohn

I know some people who bought a house for 1.5 million and then put in another 500K who then advertise the property for rent and that it sleeps 20! Why someone would do that is a mystery to me.

There are a lot of group investors that do this through an LLC. They buy a waterfront property or multiple properties, rent them out, take a few weeks out of the year for themselves, and hope that it increases in value. At the same time they all get the right off's as a partner of the LLC investments.
I hope that's not the case with the house in my neighborhood.

[TheTimeTraveler]

Originally Posted by BillJohn

I know some people who bought a house for 1.5 million and then put in another 500K who then advertise the property for rent and that it sleeps 20! Why someone would do that is a mystery to me.

It's all about numbers and returns. If the numbers work then some consider it a worthwhile investment.

Personally? I don't think I would sleep very well at night.....

[garysanfran]

Originally Posted by TheTimeTraveler

It's all about numbers and returns. If the numbers work then some consider it a worthwhile investment.

Personally? I don't think I would sleep very well at night.....

It's your return on equity and potentially a major tax write off in depreciation against your earned-income while also getting to use the property (there are uhhhh, IRS restrictions).

I've owned rental property in San Francisco for 40 years. Never a problem so severe I could not handle it while 3,200 miles away. The key is great tenants (proper screening) and a good building in a great location. And a reliable stable of contacts to do repairs, is a must.

Establishing a WOW! factor upon first sight creates demand and competition when showing the units. I've worked with a lot of landlords who owned Sect. 8, etc. in marginal neighborhoods. The rent is guaranteed but the wear-and-tear is more severe because Sect. 8 people are home more often, even during non-COVID times. More tenants per/unit. Usually less educated. However, choosing and screening wisely, it's a great deal.

Short-term rental is handled differently. The ability-to-pay is not the issue since most rent is paid ahead of time. The problem becomes spotting potential behavior problems...Loud partying, unwarranted guests, pets, etc.

[TiltonBB]

GarySF. Exactly that.

I have had rentals since 1978. In many situations I did not do enough investigation of prospective tenants, and I have the court cases to prove it. I took a chance on people and sometimes (too often) I was wrong.

One other thing about section 8 is the repairs. People who are getting something for nothing seem to have very little respect for the property. One tenant locked herself out, so she poked holes in every window screen to see if any of the windows were unlocked. When the state does the annual inspection guess who has to make all the repairs to the tenant damage?

My experience has been that 90% of the section 8 tenants are scamming the system. They often work for cash so that it doesn't show up on the books and take advantage of every free government program there is.

As Howie Carr says: "The safety net has become a hammock." I couldn't agree more.

[ApS]

One issue I would never want is "sub-letting"!

[garysanfran]

For many years I owned a credit reporting agency that tracked the performance of residential and commercial renters. My screening process was beyond what most landlords could do on their own... Way beyond a credit report and a few reference checks.

One important item that does not show on a credit report, is a prior eviction, or more important...An eviction in process. This action, in New Hampshire, is called a "Landlord-Tenant Writ".

Unless there is a money judgement. Evictions aren't on your Experian, Equifax or Transunion credit reports.

Evictions are an issue of possession of property, not money. Even if it's money owed. So, because credit reports deal with monetary issues, a possession of property won't show.

After the writ-of-possession, the landlord can get a money judgement and if successful, that will show on a credit report a few months after the fact...But not as an eviction. You may not know what this public record is for.

So what we did...

The filing of an eviction complaint, is a public record. We hired a network of data-gatherers that went into every court house throughout California (and other states) from every day, to once every two weeks to gather Unlawful Detainer (eviction) complaints at the point of filing. So, we knew of an eviction "in process" before the tenant started looking for another apartment, while using his Uncle Freddy as a phony landlord reference.

Plus, the same laws that allowed banks to report your handling of debt to credit reporting agencies, our clients could report objective rental issues into our database...Good and bad....Bounced checks, property damage...Great tenant, had unauthorized pets, etc.

In San Francisco, for instance, there are approx. 12,000 Unlawful Detainer complaints filed every year. While these people are being evicted, they're looking for new places to live using fake landlord references... and we knew!

The courts had to provide us access to their files and a place to work.

A local newspaper ran a business article on us. A local TV station then ran a news story that was seen by the director of one of the local public housing authorities who then hired us to exchange data between housing agencies...So we became the screening agency for HUD, privately owned public housing (Sec. 8), and publicly owned public housing...San Francisco, Oakland, Contra Costa, Los Angeles Housing Authorities as well as thousands of conventional landlords and large property management companies.

So, there isn't a scam I have not seen or heard of. I could write a book.

I sold my company in 1998. Similar companies are still out there, including mine with an office in Tewksbury, MA.

The problem today, is that almost all of these companies purchase stale eviction data. It was expensive to gather "live" evictions. So today they purchase packaged "eviction data". However, it's packaged after judgement, so an eviction-in-process is more difficult to uncover.

I also used questions to uncover fraud during reference checking...For example...

The applicant says he's paying $1,200/month rent. I call his landlord "reference" and ask if the landlord can verify that the applicant was paying $1,000/month rent and paid on time? If the answer is yes?

"Oh...I'm so sorry. I made a mistake. The applicant says $1,200/month. Why did you confirm $1,000?" Listen to them squirm!

And if the applicant is using a phony Social Security number? Most people don't know they're geographically coded. If you come from a New England state, it begins with a 0...New Hampshire, Maine a double 00. Chicago a 3. California mostly a 5. And if you're from NY, 050-134.

So your applicant says he just arrived from Korea and gives you a SS# beginning with 580, you ask him when he was in Puerto Rico?

It was fun...

[Sue Doe-Nym]

Very interesting post, garysanfran! Most of that information is new to me. Thanks.

[Descant]

I've done evictions in small claims court where I also got a judgement for money. Unfortunately, there really wasn't much success in collecting on that. If they didn't have the money to pay the rent, they certainly didn't have the money to pay a new landlord and me. I've only had a couple of section 8 people. They worked out very well. In each case, NHHFA only paid part of the rent, tenant paid some amount that increased over time until they got off the program. No damage other than normal wear and tear. Just the way the program is supposed to work.

[Biggd]

A buddy of mine had professional rent scammers in his building. They wouldn't move out and wouldn't pay rent during Covid even though they were both working. He actually paid them a months rent to move out.

[tis]

Originally Posted by Biggd

A buddy of mine had professional rent scammers in his building. They wouldn't move out and wouldn't pay rent during Covid even though they were both working. He actually paid them a months rent to move out.

That is the problem. People who were still working took advantage!!

[gwhite13]

A late good friend of mine had a ingenious method to remove squatters back in the 70's. His buddy was a very large scary fella, he would bust in the door around dinner time, announce that he was moving in on thursday and for them to be gone on wednesday. Worked every time, only cost a door jamb. Probably too dangerous to try in these days.

[garysanfran]

Not a scam I've not heard of. I've had to step through yellow tape and over a dead body to get into one appointment at a public housing project in Oakland. Gangs shot a security guard through the walls of his office with automatic weapons about 20 mins. before I arrived.

One 92 yr. old woman told me that she and her, now deceased, husband bought a good 2-unit owner-occupied building in a good neighborhood 60 yrs. before the neighborhood changed and she got a bad actor who didn't pay his rent for almost a year. His electricity got shut-off for non-payment so, without her knowing, he cut a hole through their common wall and he tapped into the back of one of her outlets. So she paid for his electricity unkonwingly. And he tapped into her cable TV, so she paid for the cable also. I told her what to do and she got him out in two months.

I busted one of the largest Nigerian fraud rings on the west coast. A guy posed as a landlord wanting to screen people through my company. I had suspicions and found him in my database as a past tenant who had an eviction filing that had been dismissed. I knew where he was and started my own investigation. I past the results on to The Secret Service and they nailed his ass. They had been looking for him for a long time, and couldn't find him. Got him and 15 family members.

I came across a Craigslist rental fraud in the Lakes Region last year when I needed to rent a place for a month while my place on the lake was rented out. They said COVID prevented them from showing it in person. I could drive by and look at photos. I Googled-Earthed the address and saw a sign with the phone # of the apartment community, I called the manager and she told me it was a fraud.

[TheTimeTraveler]

Originally Posted by tis

That is the problem. People who were still working took advantage!!

Our tax dollars hard at work!