Winni Weather - Spring 2007

[CanisLupusArctos]

Since Winni's weather was such a popular thread over the winter, it becomes new again here in the SPRING 2007 version.

Post your weather questions, observations, forecasts, photos, humor... There are some meteorologically-minded people here but don't let us scare you if you're not. Over the winter we saw the invention of the Yuki Scale of Snowstorm Measurement featuring the adventures of a fluffy Persian cat named Yuki.

Winni often creates its own weather, so tell us (or ask us) all about it here. Most of all, entertain and be entertained! Enjoy!

[chipj29]

Are any of the weather buffs here members over at easternuswx.com?

[SteveA]

From. www.smokeymynastro.com
Constellation Leo the Lion, which dominates the center of the Spring sky. {Trace out Leo, point out the stars Regulus & Denebola} This is a great constellation that looks very much like what it is supposed to be. Some star charts show Leo walking, but to me the stars powerfully suggest the Big Cat is in a reclining position. His head is formed by a backward question mark, an asterism that is commonly called The Sickle. The star to the right of Regulus is his forepaw, and the bright triangle to the left is the lion's rear haunch.

As luck (fate?) would have it, this past weekend, we adopted another cat from the Humane Society. He is a 14 year old that had to be surrendered by his owners due to a relocation. His name... you can guess is LEO. (Really, even I couldn't make that up!)

CLA.. I'll figure out a way to get Leo into your Spring thread. hopefully he'll add a little comic relief.



SteveA

[CanisLupusArctos]

Well, how can the talent scouts resist a face like that? The suits are willing to give Leo 7 catnip hits per week with potential for advancement to 12 hits after some experience. They're cautious, however, because they don't want to see him shave himself and check into rehab.

I'm looking forward to seeing how you work Leo into the thread! In the meantime it looks like Yuki may not be done for the season! He may have some measuring to do later Friday or Saturday, as the weather pattern changes back to a more winter-like scenario (jet stream dip in the east.) This one would have a fair amount of rain in addition to any snow... and we all know what cats think of water.

How did the cats (or anyone else's cats) fare in the incredibly low humidity (prime static electricity conditions) we had this past week? My cat used to hate it when I zapped him... he would RUN whenever he saw me scuffing across the floor! But if conditions were super-dry, his standing-up fur would make him look rather alien and sometimes he'd zap himself.

UPDATE at 7:30 p.m. Black Cat Island hit 50 degrees today, its warmest temperature since the record of 60 degrees on January 6. For those living near rivers in the area, monitor weather forecasts for warnings relating to ice jams. It is becoming an issue in southern Vermont where a flood watch is now in effect, and could become an issue here if the snow melts too fast or if rain falls too hard over the next few days. Don't get too accustomed to this springlike weather - winter will not be going down with out some battles and the first is likely to happen this weekend. A return to colder temps would be good news for the rivers, slowing the melting process and thus decreasing the chance of ice jams.

[Blue Thunder]

CLA, R2B, and Rose,

What are the "real" prospects for the hype that is beginning for the Friday-Saturday time frame? Ah, yes it's still March now isn't it??

Here is the latest CPC/NCEP outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ts/threats.gif

Blue Thunder

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

What are the "real" prospects for the hype that is beginning for the Friday-Saturday time frame? Ah, yes it's still March now isn't it??

The long-range US model has been hinting at a some snow for the end of the week for a while. I stopped looking at data for a couple of days and was surprised this morning to see 6-8 inches for a large area of New England (including the lakes) Friday night to Saturday night. The forecast discussion out of the NWS in Taunton, MA states the European and UK models are coming into concensus with the US model, while the Canadian model has less snow/more rain.

[CanisLupusArctos]

The prospects of a large storm in *any* given March are very good. One of this nation's strongest and farthest-reaching winter storms in history occurred on the east coast in March 1993 - the "Superstorm." What typically happens this month is that springtime starts surging northward in the form of warmth and moisture, while the cold air is still trying to flow south out of Canada. When the two meet, it's like opening the door from your hot shower stall on a cold morning while the water's running full blast - steam everywhere. Same thing happens in nature but on a larger scale.

This week we have warm air surging into the area but the cold we had from January until last week is still nearby. Temps in Manitoba and Saskatchewan are still at the extremely cold levels we had last week. With that said, we're poised for several battles before spring finally wins out... and this weekend is starting to look like it'll be the first.

As for rain / snow amounts, it becomes even harder to predict at this time of year because on one side of any given storm you could have temps in the 60s and 70s while on the other it could be in the teens and 20s. The track of the storm is critical to who gets which side, and some places see both. Even in the all-snow belt of any March storm there are usually wild variations in amounts due to some areas getting a warmer, wetter snow while others get a colder, powdery snow.

Timing is also more critical for this weekend's storm than with those we saw in the winter, because in order to give us a dumping of snow it has to develop at exactly the right time while the cold air replaces the warm air over us at exactly the right time, and then the storm has to move on exactly the right track.

[rander7823]

Okay weatherbuffs

From Mid-Dec to Mid Jan temps were above normal and from Mid-Jan to a week or so ago they were below.....Has everything averaged out yet or are the glaciers still melting?

[CanisLupusArctos]

A flood watch is now in effect for the lakes region for Thursday. This is for the potential of river flooding due to ice jams. Currently the rivers are mostly frozen but the warm temperatures (which hit 55 on the island today!) and a good dose of rain on the way have the potential to make the rivers rise... lifting their ice and carrying it downstream where it may dam up and cause flooding.

In addition, another powerful northeaster is looking more likely for Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned to weather forecasts if you have plans for those days.

Originally Posted by rander7823

Okay weatherbuffs

From Mid-Dec to Mid Jan temps were above normal and from Mid-Jan to a week or so ago they were below.....Has everything averaged out yet or are the glaciers still melting?

The nearest climate records for comparison are from Concord Airport. For the winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) the temperature averages are:

December 2006: 33.9 F (normal 25.9)
January 2007: 25.5 F (normal 20.1)
February 2007: 18.8 F (normal 23.3)

OVERALL: 26.1 F (normal 23.1)

Therefore, believe it or not, the winter averaged out 3 degrees above normal in Concord. Many other New England locations also averaged out 2 or 3 degrees above normal for winter 2006-07. Most of this is due to the fact that the temperatures for the first half of the winter were above normal to a much greater degree than the temps of the second half were below normal. In plain English, "Way above normal + slightly below normal = slightly above normal."

The breakdown of the extreme warmth of the first half of the winter coincides with the breakdown of the El Nino that we had since November. The cold air had been pooling to our north all along, but could not make any moves southward until the pattern changed, and it is likely that El Nino was responsible for that pattern.

The glaciers are still melting. Climate change is different from weather change. Think of *weather* as "What happened on Wall Street this month," while *climate* is "What has your stock done over the past 30 years." The climate has been slowly warming (the stock of the top corporations is worth more than it was 30 years ago) while the weather has had its mood swings (Dot-com crashes and real estate spikes).

[Resident 2B]

I do not know where to put this, on the CLA's Winter Thread or on his new Spring Thread. I decided to put it here because this is really a spring type of storm that will likely have a variety of conditions depending on what it does and where you live.

The next few days will be stormy. That is the only safe statement at this time. There are all kinds of complications at this time of the year with storms. CLA pointed this out in a recent post.

Today we have a strong, secondary cold front crossing the area with rain and possibly some snow in front of it. However, the real news is what does this front do after it passes our area, and even more importantly, what forms on the front if it stalls to our south.

It looks like the front will stall to our south, and that two low pressure areas will form on it and move up. This time of year there is plenty of energy around due to air mass contrasts. This is clearly the case today with impressive warm and cold air masses in the area. So, the stage is set for a significat storm, somewhere.

The biggest questions are, exactly where will the storm or storms go, how much cold air gets pulled down from Canada during these events and how much moisture will there be with the storm.

There is plenty of moisture available, so there will be a lot of something, and perhaps a lot of mixing. If one was to go with the best track for snow, with the biggest draw of the cold air, this could be an impressive storm for the Lakes Region. However, I think the track will be a bit too far south and east for this to happen.

There is a lot a variety in the forecast by the "Big Houses", and from what I have read, significant variety of opinions within the "Big Houses". NWS looks to me to be on the fence right now. This is perhaps the best place to be right now. AccuWeather's official forecast has a foot of snow or more in our area, but there are significantly different opinions ranging from a few inches to a few feet just within their top forecasters.

As with any spring type of storm, anything and everything could happen. Pay close attention to the weather forecasts during the next 36 hours as things could really change.

This should be interesting!

R2B

[Resident 2B]

Things are swinging towards a heavy snowfall!

The track will be "right" for a lot of snow in the lakes area and the storm has a lot of moisture. Right now, it looks like a big one.

Again, time will tell!

R2B

[Rose]

The numbers I'm getting from the 2 pm US model runs range from 6 to 12 inches of snow. I'm leaning toward the lower end of that range...from the forecasted track of the storm, I just think there will be too much warm air at upper levels for the higher amounts. I'll be keeping an eye on the wind direction at Mount Washington...it'll let me know when the warmer air is moving in at upper levels.

And to answer your question a little late, Chipj29, I do belong to Easternuswx, but I've never posted and rarely go there anymore.

[WINDinmySOCKIES]

will be interesting to see what this storm does. Here in PA two different local news reports are giving two different stories. Right now, it is sleeting, which some expect it to do all day, while one report says when the second storm comes we can expect 5-8 inches. I don't think this is doing to happen. It was 70 yesterday, and 73 the day before. AHHH, MARCH!!
I do think though that with continued global warming, we will see more and more wild weather shifts.

[SteveA]

Leo has taken up the watch on the herb garden seedlings. You can tell by the look on his face he isn't happy with the weather forecasts from you guys, or the fact we don't have any catnip started yet.



Spring looks like it's going to go on hold for a bit!

[Resident 2B]

SteveA,

It looks to me like Leo is wondering why you put the dividers in the litter box.

He looks like a great cat. You folks are wonderful adopting animals in need.

Still a tough and interesting weather situation. Two schools of thought exist. Storm track that looked to be too far south yesterday morning has shifted west, meaning more juice and more mixing for us. I still think the storm will be east of the current track which would get us on the high end of the NWS range. That said, Rose has a valid point with her warmer solution. I will be watching the Mt. Washington weather as well, especially the reports along the auto road, which is like having on-line, real-time soundings.

Last night's GFS hits us hard, if that model is correct. It tends to be better this time of the year than in mid-winter or mid-summer. Time will tell!

Enjoy the weather and the cats!

R2B

Best regards,

R2B

[Just Sold]

As of right now very fine snow is falling here in S. NH. I have to leave the home office soon and I will see how it is then for driving. At least the brook behind my place has gone down quite a bit leaving an ice rim where it overflowed yesterday.

Spring and ice out is coming all be it is being delayed a bit!

[nj2nh]

Okay, so technically this isn't NH weather. We have about five inches of the white stuff here on the ground in northern NJ with lots more to come. This is, not unremarkably, the most snow we have had all season.

And with spring around the corner, this surprises us???

Jersey Girl

[gtxrider]

Remember the Easter Snow in 1970 here in NJ. It can snow anytime here in NJ.

I hope the lake gets a good coating!

[ghfromaltonbay]

[QUOTE=gtxrider]Remember the Easter Snow in 1970 here in NJ. It can snow anytime here in NJ.

Ah yes, the famous blizzard of Easter 1970. That year Easter was on March 29th. We had more than a foot of snow and the next day we had a snow day from school! I remember this storm for 2 reasons:

1) We went to a wedding in the blizzard - our normal 45 minute ride to the church took about 90 minutes with frequent stops to clean off the wipers. Several guests never made it.

2) I had an exam scheduled for 1st period Senior English class that Monday (yes our teacher was a sadist scheduling an exam the day after Easter) and HA! HA! on Emma Farrell (said sadist) - that Monday was the 1 and only snow day my whole senior year.

[CanisLupusArctos]

At 400 pm the snow is visible over Rattlesnake Island's summit and has completely hidden Gunstock from view. Dollar Island is now clearly discernable from Jolly Island. The snow is rapidly moving in, and we'll see first flakes here at Black Cat within a few minutes.

The temperature continues to fall slowly, and the dewpoint has also been dropping off all day. Evaporative cooling is likely going to chill the air a bit more as the precip gets underway.

I haven't had time to look at the models (ahhh, work... but one must pay bills) but I noticed the Weather Channel just upped their forecast amounts for us, from "8 to 12 inches" this morning to "A foot or more" now. New England Cable News has us in the 15-inch belt. Perhaps there's been a change in the models? The trend in forecasts seems to more snow, with each new forecast.

This storm could be a sign of things to come, as one of this morning's news stories on NBC-Today was NOAA's announcement that the El Nino responsible for our warm weather early in the winter broke down, allowing the cold February... and has now become a La Nina pattern which favors lots of storms in the Atlantic.

MDC

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

SteveA,

It looks to me like Leo is wondering why you put the dividers in the litter box.

He looks like a great cat. You folks are wonderful adopting animals in need.

Thanks R2B,

I'll bet he was thinking exactly that... some of these "pet" actors can be hard to work with!

We really enjoy our cat "Hobby"... and I really enjoy these threads.

[jbess]

Hard to believe, two days ago, it was 70* here in CT. Now look!

[nj2nh]

I was living in Massachusetts in 1970 (and was only 10 - hehe) so I don't remember that one.

I was in Jersey for the blizzard in March of 1993 and remember THAT one distinctly. When I went to work in Newark a couple of days later, the normally four lane road into the downtown area was only two lanes. The 40 minute drive took 2 hours. That was way before I had a cell phone so I just had to sit there and wait. Talk about late for work.

I also remember vividly the blizzard of '78. Missed an entire week of my senior year. After graduation, the rest of the classes still had a week of school. It was great - we didn't even have to take final exams.

Our beautiful snow has turned into sleet. Nothing left on the trees. Ah, well, it was nice while it lasted.

Jersey Girl (formerly of SE Massachusetts)

[CanisLupusArctos]

7:30 pm finds it snowing heavily over the lake, and the temp continues to fall. It's currently 18. Snow began at 4:30 pm on Black Cat and within 90 minutes visibility was 1/4 mile with the first inch already on the ground.

Lots of roads are becoming impassable due to multiple accidents (as announced on radio) and there are a few reports of inclines and on-ramps that have become so icy that cars can't make it up them. What's happened is that the roads were warm from the last few days, and the first hour of snow melted on them. It has now frozen, with snow accumulating on top of the ice.

Great news is that this should make for some fantastic spring skiing!

Photos from 6 p.m....

[michael c]

I am looking out my window and yesterday the ice looked VERY unsafe and now ,with the considerably lower temps, I think people will unfortunately feel safe to travel on the ice again ..I fear that it is not a question of "if " but " when " is someone gonna go through the ice on a sled ...the damage done to the ice 2 days ago was considerable ,as it got up to 66 degrees here and the ice looked rotten . No doubt it was safer than it looked ,but I worry .
Today ,1/4 mile from the channel the first snow flake appeared at 4:01 pm and as of now ,We have about 2 + inches

Please be careful !!!

[fatlazyless]

Earlier today, there were a couple of sleds and atv's out by the southern end of Bear Island. Also this morning, the snow condition on the western end of the Sandwich Notch Rd looked good enough for a sled. It's a sno-mo and dog sled trail of maybe 12 miles running from N Sandwich to Thornton through a newly designated wilderness area. Step two feet off the road and you are in a US Forest Sevice protected wilderness area of the southern White Mt National Forest, thanks in part to Senator Gregg's good efforts. Way to go, Senator! And on a good day, just an easy two hour, 125 mile ride from the Massachusetts State House.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by michael clayton

I am looking out my window and yesterday the ice looked VERY unsafe and now ,with the considerably lower temps, I think people will unfortunately feel safe to travel on the ice again ..I fear that it is not a question of "if " but " when " is someone gonna go through the ice on a sled ...the damage done to the ice 2 days ago was considerable ,as it got up to 66 degrees here and the ice looked rotten . No doubt it was safer than it looked ,but I worry .
Today ,1/4 mile from the channel the first snow flake appeared at 4:01 pm and as of now ,We have about 2 + inches

Please be careful !!!

The ice looked rotten from here too... but it was just the snowpack on top of the ice that melted. Underneath that slush is still a good thick layer of solid ice that's going to take more than a couple warm days to melt... and that will be a slower process now that all the slush has frozen solid a couple inches thick. Just a couple days ago the WeatherCam captured a shot of a pickup truck towing a Bobhouse north of Bear Island... and that was on one of the 50-degree days.

You are right, though... sooner or later it will be deceptive. Right now the only weak spots I'm noticing are around rocks, which absorb the sun's heat, and the open areas created by dock bubblers are growing.

[SteveA]

I measured about 10 inches... lot's of drifting... what is amazing is how much we have lost since 6am today... melting fast. Maybe it's just the slight rain/sleet we have had from about 10am.

About 1 1/2 Yuki..

SteveA

[Resident 2B]

I really like March snow. It is great to have a storm, it really looks great and it goes away fast. Great snow!

I once heard that March Snow is one of the few things in nature that actually has a shorter life duration than a Hollywood marriage.

On another link on this great web site, I saw some comments about the snow being very heavy for a snow that looked powdery last night. The reason for this is the mixing of sleet and freezing rain overnight. That really compacted the snow and as a result, last night's light snow is today's heavy snow.

The snow should compact even more this afternoon, but that will lead to a frozen and hard snowmass tomorrow morning. If you want to move this snow, do it this afternoon. It will be much harder to move it tomorrow morning.

R2B

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

If you want to move this snow, do it this afternoon. It will be much harder to move it tomorrow morning.

Mother nature and the March sun are in charge of the rest of my snow removal!

I'm on the couch watching Bay Hill and the NCAA Tournament!

[CanisLupusArctos]

A 1.5 on the Yuki Scale! Impressive! You know, I just thought of a possible "spring weather mascot" job for Leo. He's got long hair, right? And spring brings electrical storms - early warning of static in the air helps to save the lives of golfers and boaters. On second thought, this could ruin your marriage. Never mind!

8.0 inches was the best total I could come up with for the island. As R2B mentioned, it compacted a LOT since last night, and being unwilling to stay awake and measure at 2 a.m. when it changed over, I had to guess how much it had been. For the most part I was measureing around 6 inches new snow this morning, 9 to 10 on the ground total, 3 of which was old. At midnight I had measured 5.5 inches of the fluffy stuff and it came down at 1-2 inches per hour until the changeover, so I'm guessing we had 8 inches.

This storm brought the most significant ice we've had in a while... 1/4 inch of freezing rain this morning. The wind cups are frozen, hence my 0 mph readings at the moment. A NW wind of 10-20 mph is making the trees creak in their icy coatings.

Last night we had a wind gust to 50 mph just after 3 a.m. After that, the storm calmed down a lot.... which ironically is when we had our power outage (as it was all calming down) between 5 and 7 a.m.

R2B is right, this is great snow - very well behaved - the driveway I half-heartedly shoveled this morning is now almost bare thanks to the limited sunshine we had today. It wasn't much, but we've got the equivalent of a September sun now, so it doesn't take much.

Now if the same sun-power would shine a little harder on my wind sensors....

MDC

[Resident 2B]

Folks,

The barometric pressure peaked this morning around or slightly above 30.80

This is the highest pressure I have recorded in several years! I realize that most people do not care that much about the barometric pressure, but if you like weather extremes, this is unusually high.

Enjoy the early spring weather and lets get that ice melted in the next four to five weeks.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

We also have a freezing rain advisory for tonight and tomorrow morning. It may be clear now, but the warm air is trying to push in here for the rest of the week. It will overrun the cold air and drop some rain down into the cold air that's over us now.

As R2B mentioned, the air pressure is incredibly high - this is heavy, dense air - and so it's unlikely that the arriving warm air will be able to push it out of the way very quickly. This will result in a few hours of icing tonight and tomorrow morning. It won't be heavy, but it only takes a small amount of freezing rain to make everything a skating rink out there.

Here's the barograph (air pressure record) chart for this week on Black Cat Island. Some wild extremes!

[CanisLupusArctos]

UPDATE at 4:30 PM...

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of New Hampshire except the southwestern portion (Keene to Manchester) for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The NWS is calling for mixed precip to change to snow and become heavy tomorrow night, accumulating 6 inches or more.

My own call on this is based on the way these spring storms usually go: The most will fall at elevation. I'm going to guess that the lakes region will average around 6 inches of the heavy wet stuff while the summits of Gunstock and Red Hill could see 10 inches, and the higher ski areas (Wildcat, Cannon, etc.) stand a good chance at 12"+.

This one looks like it'll average Y1 on the Yuki scale. Here, kitty, kitty....

[CanisLupusArctos]

Midnight Wednesday night, 5 inches of snow on the ground and snowing heavily. Lots of heavy wet cement-like snow.

Amounts, anyone else?

[DBA]

Airboat Guy and I have about 10-12" of new snow at this time. Power is now back on. It will be interesting to see what the weight of this snow does to the ice. Noticed yesterday that more areas were "showing wet" as the day and the snow progressed.

Airboat trip on 4/3 was about 50% able to support airboat weight (observation shows that ice was 14-18" just beyond open water at our dock), about 40% not able to support (wet and honey-combed ice pencils of varying thickness), and 10% water (along the southern shorelines and in the marina and areas where there are springs, etc.).

DBA

[This'nThat]

Here's Alton Bay, 6:25am on Thur, 5 April. Welcome to Spring, everyone.

[DBA]

View of the Broads at 6:30 this morning.... DBA

[Just Sold]

Since the snow is heavy will it cause the weaker areas of the ice to crack and speed up the Ice Out?

My trip last weekend around the lake showed that areas like 19 & 20 Mile Bays and Melvin Village still had a frozen snow layer on them and that the ice was still thick so I do not think they will be thawing soon with this snow pack added on.

I got only 6.6" in my yard in Sandown. Heavy wet snow with an ice/slush layer on the bottom.

[nj2nh]

seems to have been moved! My husband was hoping to capture a picture of us standing on the dock come June. Like the new view . . . except for that awful white stuff!

Jersey Girl

[This'nThat]

The CAM has now moved back to it's original position, as of 1opm today (5 Apr).

[CanisLupusArctos]

Total was 8.5 inches on Black Cat Is. Heavy wet stuff that stuck to the trees and made for some beautiful pics... it's all falling off the trees now though. There isn't much sun today but when it does come out it's melting the snow quickly. The porch and driveway are already bare. The NWS outlook for the long term trend still says colder than normal in NE for the next 14 days. Has anyone done any spring skiing with this storm? I've been hearing that the ski areas got 2 feet! It's such a great time of year to go, when you don't freeze on the chairlift. Or better yet, May skiing, when you can go down the hill in shorts and t-shirt!

[SIKSUKR]

I'll be skiing it tomorrow CLP.The whites got about 12-14 inches.The Maine resorts of Sunday River and Sugarloaf got about 2 feet.

[Merrymeeting]

I am far from an expert, but I was wondering if this snow cover will actually hasten ice-out?

The water temperature has risen to 38 and is staying there (for now). With the coat of snow above acting as insulation, the ice won't be directly exposed to the cold night temps, and will continually be eaten away from below by the relatively warm water. Yes?

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I am far from an expert, but I was wondering if this snow cover will actually hasten ice-out?

The water temperature has risen to 38 and is staying there (for now). With the coat of snow above acting as insulation, the ice won't be directly exposed to the cold night temps, and will continually be eaten away from below by the relatively warm water. Yes?

Hmmmm.... that sounds like one of the questions from physics class. Now I wish I'd been drinking more coffee! I'm just as curious as you are. Any ice experts out there?

One thing I have noticed this morning is that the snowcover hasn't melted, like it should be doing at this time of year. The temp went down to the 20s overnight and at noontime it still hasn't bounced back up above freezing. The NWS forecast is the most wintery forecast I've ever seen for April, with a snowflake in each othe the 7 days.

[Rose]

Okay, Babes, did you put in a time delay for your dancing to take effect? As of last night's models, we're looking at about a Yuki of snow on Thursday!

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by Rose

Okay, Babes, did you put in a time delay for your dancing to take effect? As of last night's models, we're looking at about a Yuki of snow on Thursday!

Leo is bored stiff... waiting to do his "Spring Thing.".. and Yuki has filed a claim for "Overtime" pay.. (Catnip is not cheap... )

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Rose

Okay, Babes, did you put in a time delay for your dancing to take effect? As of last night's models, we're looking at about a Yuki of snow on Thursday!

The Babes put their snow dancing shoes away last month. I think it's just old Mother Nature doing this to us now!

[Island Girl]

Ya caught me!!

[Blue Thunder]

Forget about tonight and tomorrow, what about the storm Sun/Mon that has the potential to be of "epic proportion" (Barry Burbank's words today at Noon).

Rose? CLA? B2B?

Blue Thunder

[Resident 2B]

This is nuts!

It is looking like two wet storms and very cold for this time of the year. The question is the track, the tempatures at mid levels and the location and strength of supporting high pressure.

Storm 1 is a Thursday into early Friday event that looks like 7" or so around the lake with more, possibly much more, snow in the mountains. This is the wet, power-outage kind of snow that will also damage the trees. Some trees are still bend from last week's storm and thise are in the most trouble. It looks like the track, mid levels and supporting high are in reasonable place to support snow in the lakes northward.

Storm 2 has the potential to be historic. However, it is still a bot too early to be drawing rain/snow lines. It could be a very big rain event or some of it could be snow. The potential is clearly there, but we need to see what happens with storm 1 first. If storm 1 is weaker than projected, storm 2 could be much worse.

The lake still has a lot of ice on it. My opinion is the snow cover on the ice will hold the ice longer due to the reflection of the sun's warmth. There is a counter effect that the blanket of snow will help the 38 degree water melt the ice. This is a minor effect in my opinion. The reflection of the sun's warmth is a bigger item.

I saw boats in the water at Silver Sands today. The docks closest to Laconia are free of ice and about ten larger cruisers are in. A heavy, wet snow could weigh down these boats, so I hope someone is watching these boats very closely during snow events. Heavy snow is heavy!

R2B

[Resident 2B]

Storm 1

There is cold air over us, so as the snow begins to fall the cold air will be pulled down with the snow. This will cause a temp drop and change the mix to all snow. When the precip gets lighter, it may mix, but as soon as it picks up again, it should go back to snow.

Storm 2

This could be a big weather maker. Still too early to draw the rain/snow line, but this is looking like a classic nor'easter with a lot of wind.

It is possible/likely the wind will rip up a lot of the ice. This is most likely to happen if it is a rain event and less likely to happen if it is a snow event. I believe heavy snow on the ice has a dampening effect on the motion of the sheet, unless the ice is very thin.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

There is apparently more cold air over us than the computers have been able to measure. My first clue was when I talked to a friend of mine in Wakefield Massachusetts about an hour ago and he said it was sleeting heavily - the radar shows all rain over him. The second clue was this quote from a NWS Forecast Discussion from Gray, ME:

CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AT THE MOMENT...NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE SHORTLY AS THE
DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER IS BEING EVALUATED. REPORT OF SLEET IN
KEENE IS PUTTING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST...AS NO MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.

So apparently, there is a layer of cold air over us that has managed to go undetected. The models are seeing a lot of data that seems totally out-of-line to them. When they get into non-traditional situations, they are outside their comfort zones and they start making all kinds of wacky calls the way your calculator flashes an "E" when you exceed its capabilities. The models are great but in the grand scheme of things, they are still just oversized calculators and nature likes to make them "flash an E" occasionally. Today is one of those days. Actually, this whole month is.

It's snowing occasionally heavy at Black Cat now. We've only got an inch or two but it's seriously weighing on the pine branches. As R2B mentioned, this is *heavy* snow - weight-wise.

R2B is right about the snow reflecting the sun's radiation. That's the biggest melter at this time of year. Without the sun (or with white to reflect it), our temps in the 30s and low 40s are not going to melt the ice very quickly by themselves.

I'm guessing that the ice between Black Cat and Steamboat is quite thick. This is from checking the weathercam view and daily time lapse - even on the warmer and windier days I have not seen the edge of the ice push back noticeably during the day. It has melted *very* slowly. Therefore I think it's still pretty thick.

About the late-weekend storm... It does look like a history-maker, IF all the ingredients come together as currently forecast. Many forecasters are already using superlatives to describe it. This one would cause problems regardless of rain or snow. Where it snows, it'll be deep snow. Where it rains, it'll be flooding rain. I guess the saving grace would be that anyone on the snow side may go without electricity but their homes would stay dry. The storm's rainy side would also cause power outages but there'd be flooding to go along with it.

There isn't much certain about that storm yet... we're still trying to get through this one first. One thing I am noticing is that forecasters at the NWS are starting to express their thoughts and feelings (bewilderment, excitement, etc.) in their forecast discussions that are normally data-focused and devoid of all emotions and thoughts. When the NWS Technical Forecast Discussions start to sound more like magazine articles and less like notes from a math class, something funky is brewing.

[Merrymeeting]

I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

[jetskier]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I just keep thinking about many friends who spend a good part of the year training to run the Marathon. What a bummer for them.

Channel 7 indicated last night that the Marathon Committee issued a statement indicating that the Marathon would go on unless the weather was catastrophic. I used to run in the Marathon and rain is not such a bad thing...snow is

Jetskier

[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by jetskier

I used to run in the Marathon and rain is not such a bad thing...snow is

Yup. But I was thinking more about the combination of rain, a brutal headwind, and cold, all being forecast. As you know, a runner can prepare well for any one of those. But all 3? Then it's a matter of surviving rather than running for a personal best.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Lights flickering...

Snowed all day but tallied only an inch with plowable amounts just 200-300 feet higher.

Now raining heavily. Winds East with 2 min avg just reached 35 mph, peak gust for the day 51 mph a few mins ago and increasing. Judging by looking out the window i almost think instruments reading low. Storm rain total 0.58 inches so far.

[jbess]

Does anyone think this spring will be as bad as last May was with rainfall. Will the Lake get to the high levels that were seen last spring and the flooding down river as a result?

[SteveA]

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php

They recorded gusts to 140mph

[DBA]

Fierce winds all night, but the rain is taking it's toll on the ice. Today, the rain has softened all the ice. The appearance of ice thickness is 1-2" and the piles that occur when one berg hits another are mush. Still there but much softer.....wetter.
DBA

[NHKathy]

So, how much snow in the Moultonborough area?? Thinking about going up this comming weekend, depending on if there will still be snow on the ground and how muddy it will be...
Reports anybody?

[Resident 2B]

With a peak wind gust of 156 mph at the summit of Mt. Washington this morning and several inches of rain in the lakes area, this was an intense storm. The wind really did a job on the ice, but there is still a lot of ice left. It will remain windy the next few days, so things are looking up as far as getting the ice-out. I think we are looking at sometime next week.

If this was mid-winter, we would be up to our necks!

Time for some warmer weather. We should see 60s in the next ten days.

R2B

[rander7823]

Temp 29 F
Winds 156 MPH

So what is the wind chill if it even matters?????

[Resident 2B]

29F @ 156 MPH = 1 degree F

This is using the 2001 (new) Wind Chill Index from the NASA weather site. The wind really does not matter much above 55 MPH.

The technically correct wind speed to use is the sustained wind speed and 156 MPH was a gust.

It is currently 22F at the summit with a sustained wind speed of 90 yielding a WCT of -5F. Great April weather!

R2B

[Grant]

Heck, we had enough snow after the flooding rain to cover the cars, ground, and trees down her in southern PA this morning. My basement was 3" deep in water, and I spent the day doing triage on a cranky sump pump. What a storm.

Looking forward to opening up in a few weeks -- hope the weather improves between now and then, 'cause I'd like to do the inaugural Winni dive of the season...

[secondcurve]

Does anyone have snow totals for the Wolfeboro/Tuftonboro area?

Thanks

[ApS]

Most of the snow got rained-away, creating flooding in all the usual spots. At one point on 109, a small car could have been stuck in a Texas-style washout!

The blacktop on 109 and 171 are badly eroded on their edges and undercut by a foot or two in places. There is a lot of gravel from the swales that got washed across the roads and washed into many brooks and marshes from Wolfeboro to Meredith.

In some places the roads department is putting in rip-rap rock—something that would have alleviated this seasonal occurrence in years past.

[Dave R]

Originally Posted by Acres per Second

In some places the roads department is putting in rip-rap rock—something that would have alleviated this seasonal occurrence in years past.

They did that last May on my road to repair the record flood damage and to prevent future damage. It all washed away yesterday in the new record flood. Having these "100 year floods" every year is getting old. Glad my house is on a big hill and 30+ feet above the new record flood level.

[Weirs guy]

Our place had about 25 gallons of water in the basement yesterday. That did not happen with last years 100 year flood. Pretty good amount of rain to seep into a basement of a house, on a hill, with a lake at the bottom of the hill!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Here's some data from Black Cat during the storm of April 15-17.

Total snow: 1.0 inch (higher amounts occurred just 200 feet higher in elev. but still got washed away later.) This brings the island's monthly total for April to 17 inches - greater than January's total. There is currently no snowpack left. There have been 12 days this month with a snowpack of 1 inch or more.

Total liquid/rainfall: 2.78 inches

Max hourly Rain: 0.23 inches on Monday morning

Max 2-minute avg. wind speed: East at 41 mph, several times Monday morning. Average wind speed for the entire day (4/16) was 28 mph.

Peak wind gust: 64 mph at 6:59 a.m. Monday.

Wind direction remained from the east all day Sunday and Monday and did not shift, as the storm remained nearly stationary. On Tuesday it shifted slightly, coming from the northeast but gusting below 40 mph. On Wednesday it started gusty and the day ended nearly calm, direction still from the northeast.

Min. Barometer: 29.08 inches at 12:15 p.m. Monday - more common of a Cat-1 hurricane but still not as low as the Valentine's Day Storm's 29.04".

Lake level rose more than a foot in 3 days, to above full level. At the time of this post it is still rising.
Lake level source: http://www.des.state.nh.us/rti_data/wein3_TABLE.HTML

General local damage: Pine trees uprooted. Weaker trunks snapped. Sudden breakup of solid lake ice resulting in dock/shoreline structure damage. 24 hour power outage from large tree on wires, Eagle Shore Road.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Ok, we've been using this 'Spring' weather thread for winter storms long enough!!

Now Monday's NWS forecast keeps getting warmer each day and calls for mid-70s. It seems that whenever this happens in the spring there's at least a few places around the state that hit 80.

We've spent the winter making bets on snowfall. Now how about some bets about Monday's high temp!

The last time it hit 80 on Black Cat Island was August 3, and we probably won't until the water starts warming up--but away from the water....

Place your bets...

[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Ok, we've been using this 'Spring' weather thread for winter storms long enough!!

I've just figured out what our problem is. It's your avatar! You need to change it. It's been putting a chill on the whole area!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I've just figured out what our problem is. It's your avatar! You need to change it. It's been putting a chill on the whole area!

I never even thought of it! Changing to summer avatar!

Looks like our first 70 degree day tomorrow! And it keeps getting warmer from there. Woo-hooooooo!!!

[offmycloud]

Does anyone know when the Lake Gestapo starts its patrols? They are going to have a lot of fun with this boating cert business this year - "Your papers pleez!!"

[CanisLupusArctos]

Today's high of 66 on Black Cat was the warmest since 72, on October 9. Heat ripples were visible above the dying portions of the last remaining lake ice between here and Long/Steamboat. The boaters didn't care - quite a few of them passed by today.

Away from the water, temps reached 72 in Laconia and through much of the lakes region, but up to 75 in Concord.

Sunday will likely be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs around 70 on the water, and mid-70s away from it. Wouldn't be surprised to see Concord hit 80. Monday's looking even warmer and I think a few places around the southern half of the lakes region will top out close to 85.

Say bye-bye to the ice....

[CanisLupusArctos]

The National Weather Service just issued a flood watch for the possibility of 1-2 inches of rain Thursday night and Friday.

Meanwhile, the lake level is just beginning to recede from its high of nearly 505 feet this week, but it's still 504.9 feet... not even a noticeable drop.

Looks like NH DES has just increased the outflow at Lakeport again, probably in anticipation.