Where is summer?

[Winni Luvr]

Well, I'm about to embark on the 1st of my 2 yearly treks up to the Lake (yippee) but I can't help but notice the weather really hasn't been all that summerlike yet up there, and quite rainy as well. What's going on? I kind of wish global warming would hit there like it has here in NJ (we have had no shortage of 90+ degree days this year). I have been going up to the Lake for many years (40 or so) now and we have usually had to deal with at least a couple of days of really hot weather, but looking at next week's forecast and the weather of previous weeks, it looks like much of the same weather....upper 70's and chance of T-Storms. Now trust me, I am not complaining at all about the air temperature, because it will be nice to get away from this god awful heat, but my real concern is the Lake temperature. I love to swim in the Lake, I actually find it therapeutic for my aches and pains (probably all in my mind, but I swear all of my pains go away for months after a swim in Lake Winnipesaukee , but 75 degrees is a wee bit chilly for these old bones. I have a pool and won't go in until the temp hits 85....but geez..a whole 10 degrees cooler...I just don't know. I'm definitely going in, but may have to buy a wetsuit. Is it just me or is it really a much cooler, wetter summer there this year? (oh, and my comment above about wishing global warming on NH wasn't for real, I ski in the winter, and global warming is just about the last thing I want to happen to the Northeast or anywhere in the world). Anyway, looking forward to getting up to your wonderful state....

[Scott]

The average high temp for this time of year is 82. It's been a pretty normal summer, temperature wise.

Summer storms make precipitation very hit and miss. It hasn't been unusually wet in my backyard, but I only have to stray a few miles from home to find areas that have had an extremely wet July.

[Island Life]

WL, you are right; it has been cool and wet. I left the lake last Friday, when it was warm and sunny for the first time in 7 days (I have no idea what the weather was like after I left - I imagine it was perfect). During those previous 7 days, we had lots of rain and almost nothing but gray skies. We ran the wood stove several of those days just to dry out the house. Usually we don't do this until late August. Of the 3 weeks I was there in July, it was rainy more than it was sunny. But pleeeeeaaaasse don't wish global warming on us I'm betting winter will come early this year, too.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Island Life

I'm betting winter will come early this year, too.

The way things stand right now, you will be right. We've been seeing highs in the mid-70s this week. Tuesday felt like September. It's supposed to be the hottest time of the year right now. As I've said in other threads, one major feature of this summer's weather has been the non-stop cold fronts coming from Canada. They have been doing battle with the summer warmth, resulting in all the rain and thunderstorms.

One of those cold fronts - a very slow mover - was the reason behind the recent tornado in NH. Warm and humid summertime air was trying to stream northward in to New England, while the cold air was moving out of Canada and putting the squeeze-play on it. When moving streams get squeezed (like when you put your thumb over the end of the hose) the streams move faster. The air that day was moving at an incredible clip from south to north (and so was the tornado itself, which had a forward speed of 50 mph). That was all thanks to cold air from Canada putting the squeeze play on the summertime flow of air coming up from the south.

It all ties in, and it all points to more of the same followed by early winter (provided this pattern keeps up.) If it does, I think we'll see snow at the top of Mount Washington by Labor Day.

[chipj29]

And then the pattern will break down, just in time to bring that warm west-east flow for winter.

[kjbathe]

Originally Posted by Winni Luvr

I'm definitely going in, but may have to buy a wetsuit.

That's funny. The last time I wore a wet suit in the lake was windsurfing through the honeycomb ice in the Spring.

[nj2nh]

WL from Edison,

We are a gang of Jerseyites (Glen Rock, Point Pleasant, Somerville by way of Wilmington) heading north tomorrow for a couple of weeks, too. I am constantly checking every weather site I can find for the forecast. Frankly, I can't complain about 75 degrees! The weather here in Joisey has been just horrible - except for the night we were at the Springsteen concert , thank goodness.

And since my bathing suit days are OVER, I don't care what temperature the water is. My boys and husband do, but that is THEIR problem.

Enjoy!!!!!

nj2nh

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by chipj29

And then the pattern will break down, just in time to bring that warm west-east flow for winter.

We must not think like that! We must not jinx ourselves so!

[ghfromaltonbay]

Originally Posted by nj2nh

WL from Edison,

We are a gang of Jerseyites heading north tomorrow for a couple of weeks, too. I am constantly checking every weather site I can find for the forecast. Frankly, I can't complain about 75 degrees! The weather here in Joisey has been just horrible - except for the night we were at the Springsteen concert , thank goodness.

And since my bathing suit days are OVER, I don't care what temperature the water is. My boys and husband do, but that is THEIR problem.

Enjoy!!!!!

nj2nh

nj2nh,

GTXrider and I will also be heading up from Joisey for nearly 2 weeks at the lake as well. I'll trade the weather there for this soupy 90 degree NJ stuff any day. Incidentally, one's bathing suit days should never be over. How can you resist that great lake water?? Last time I was there on 7/21 the water was 75 degrees. Can't wait for some relief cooling off in the lake!

Sandy Point, here we come!!!!

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by Scott

The average high temp for this time of year is 82. It's been a pretty normal summer, temperature wise.

Where did you come up with this number? KCON's average high is 81 in early August, and my crude observations over the past 10 years suggest that temps generally run about 2-3 degrees cooler at the lake than in Concord. So, I'd guess that an "average" high at the lake is about 78-79ish in mid summer.

I believe most lake goers, for one reason or another, have a skewed perspective on what "average" weather is on the lake in the summer. With the average high at 79, the probability of a 90 degree day is about the same as the probability of a day which never gets over 68.

And just for the record, KCON was 1.1 degrees above normal in July, and has been above normal for each of the first 3 days of August so far.

[Scott]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

Where did you come up with this number? KCON's average high is 81 in early August, and my crude observations over the past 10 years suggest that temps generally run about 2-3 degrees cooler at the lake than in Concord. So, I'd guess that an "average" high at the lake is about 78-79ish in mid summer.

It comes from here, and it's about the only thing I find of value from weather.com
http://www.weather.com/weather/wxcli...6?climoMonth=7


WeatherBase gives monthly averages and says our July average high is 83.
http://www.weatherbase.com/weather/w...efer=&units=us

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by Scott

It comes from here, and it's about the only thing I find of value from weather.com
http://www.weather.com/weather/wxcli...6?climoMonth=7

Interesting... I wonder how they come up with that number since LCI is not an official climate station.

Maybe their climate history is not as long as Concord's, hence the higher reading? FWIW, the 15 year averages in New Eng are typically a couple degrees warmer than the 30 year. Concord's 15 year average high, for example, is 83 compared to a 30 year of 81.

[CanisLupusArctos]

In the first few months of the WeatherCenter site, I used KLCI's norms for the almanac data. I learned to dislike them for the fact that Meteotrade mentions: The record just isn't long enough. The record highs and lows were all coming dated recently and the high/low averages seemed a bit skewed. I switched to KCON and within a few days I had the almanac data I was more accustomed to seeing: records often dated long ago, averages that seemed within a couple degrees of what I'd consider normal. I post them prominently as "Concord" for the same reason meteotrade mentions, also: Different parts of this area have different comparisons to Concord temps and my intention is that each site visitor has an idea of how many degrees warmer/cooler his or her location usually is, when compared to Concord.

Laconia will usually be closer than Moultonborough. But out on the lake where the Black Cat station is, it's a whole different story. It's very, very hard to get a day in the 90s out here unless the water temp is already in the 80s. In the spring when the mainland is up in the 70s for the first time, we're usually getting a breeze off the melting lake ice that's keeping the air temp down around 50. And we have a very late frost, come fall. Once again, the water temp plays a huge role.

[meteotrade]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

But out on the lake where the Black Cat station is, it's a whole different story. It's very, very hard to get a day in the 90s out here unless the water temp is already in the 80s.

So what is the all time high for your station? I don't keep accurate records myself, but the highest I've ever seen at our place (which is densely wooded) is 89.

Btw, today may go down as one of the coldest, dankest early August days in recent memory. The amount of rain we've had this summer is truly astonishing.

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

Btw, today may go down as one of the coldest, dankest early August days in recent memory.

Yikes, I have the hot air heater turned on to lower the humidity and dry the place out. Turning on the air conditioner, or turning on the heater....yup...the heater is the right choice for today...August 6....hard to believe.

Must be a difficult day for all the hikers in the WMNF, summer campers, campground visitors....and boaters. About the only channel coming thru on satellite tv is Fox News.....yeech.

Today's the type of day when the tough get up and go shopping. Let's see, Meredith used to have a Parafunalia & a Ben Franklin. Now, all it's got is a crappy Rite Aid and a Hannaford's, under construction. progress...where...where...what progress? Rite Aid doesn't even spell their stupid name correct....Rite!...wrong!...it's Right!

[GrandmaBig6]

We are heading up next Saturday for our annual two week vacation. I'll try and bring the NY sun with us so we can a non-rainy vacation. See you soon NH!!!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by meteotrade

So what is the all time high for your station? I don't keep accurate records myself, but the highest I've ever seen at our place (which is densely wooded) is 89.

Btw, today may go down as one of the coldest, dankest early August days in recent memory. The amount of rain we've had this summer is truly astonishing.

The all time high here is 89, although in 1988 I know we were in the 90s many days. I had just gotten into measuring but not record keeping. The water temp at the end of the dock reached 92 that summer. That is probably what allowed the 90-degree temps elsewhere to show themselves on the island too.

The last several days have been kind of dank. Haven't been out of the 70s. We've had 1.42" of rain since 10 pm last night... 0.94" of that has fallen this morning. Temperature is 61 F... wind from the SE at 32 mph gusting to 42 mph. Lake temp is falling rapidly now. 72 degrees on top, and 74 underneath. Until a couple days ago it had been sustained at 77 both depths.

[Scott]

Originally Posted by Scott

Summer storms make precipitation very hit and miss. It hasn't been unusually wet in my backyard.

Looks like I shouldn't have taunted mother nature.

[CanisLupusArctos]

The following is copied from this morning's technical forecast discussion from NWS- Gray Maine.

I will let it speak for itself.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE...FINALLY! GOING FORWARD A MID SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL
FINALLY BE EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT 3-7 DAYS AS THE SERIES OF
UPPER CUTOFF LOWS DROPPING SE INTO NEW ENGLAND HAS COME TO AN
END. THE NEW PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP WITH JUST A FEW MINOR TROFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE
ON SAT AND THEN ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEP IN MIND THESE WILL
BE WEAK SYSTEMS AND FAST MOVING.

THE LAST OF THE UPPER TROFS EXITS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VERY LARGE SFC/UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE
EASTERN SEABOARD MID-LATE WEEK WITH THIS LARGE RIDGE TO BECOME A
CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH SETUP FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL
A PERIOD OF SUNNY...MUCH WARMER AND EVENTUALLY MORE TROPICAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

[twoplustwo]

THIS WILL SPELL A PERIOD OF SUNNY...MUCH WARMER AND EVENTUALLY MORE TROPICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


Can I hear an amen! Or a woofreakinghoooooo!!

[SIKSUKR]

And boy do we deserve a heaping helping of nice weather!!

[Winni Luvr]

I hope the nice weather lasts for at least 10 days....trying to get up there again next Friday for a 4 day weekend....didn't see much sun when I was up there 1st wk of Aug....hope this time we see lots of sunshine

[Mee-n-Mac]

I think it's called the Sun. Rumored to have been washed away, it made a surprise reappearance these last 2 days. Also saw something else, I think they're called blue skies. Very odd they are ....

[NHKathy]

Originally Posted by twoplustwo

THIS WILL SPELL A PERIOD OF SUNNY...MUCH WARMER AND EVENTUALLY MORE TROPICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


Can I hear an amen! Or a woofreakinghoooooo!!

Originally Posted by Winni Luvr

I hope the nice weather lasts for at least 10 days....trying to get up there again next Friday for a 4 day weekend....didn't see much sun when I was up there 1st wk of Aug....hope this time we see lots of sunshine

twoplustwo: I go with the "WooFreakingHoooooooo"!

Winni Luvr: Same here - was up the 1st week of August and possibly going back up next weekend - Hope it stays!!!

[CanisLupusArctos]

As we finally get a dose of summer this upcoming week, enjoy it! Colorado had snow the last couple days, which at this time of year is often a sign of autumn appearing in North America. Rockies first, then the upper peninsula of Michigan and northern Minnesota, and then northern New England.

The TV news story on it (from local station) is here:

http://www.9news.com/news/article.as...7578&catid=339

[jasn]

No complaints for Sunday, August 17. It was a beauty out there, and everyone else seemed to know about it too. Great day.

[tis]

Yes, it was like Fourth of July in past years! I couldn't believe the boat traffic! Great for the economy after a slow summer. At least they sold gas for one day!

[chipj29]

We were heading to Hampton to cruise the ocean for the day yesterday. Got a bit of a late start, and never made it that far. Traffic on 101 was backed up all the way back to I-95. Took 45 mins to go a half mile, at that point we had had enough. I guess everyone else had the same idea.
Weather this week looking pretty darn good. Won't be able to get out on the water before Saturday though.

[nj2nh]

I never did go in the water on this trip and neither did my fourteen-year-old son (wimp). Some of our gang did brave the icy stuff, but not me. And, when they did go in, they jumped right out.

We also went up to the Kancamagus Highway to see how high the water was on the Swift (?) River. THE WATER WAS FREEZING! And yet, there were people, including a few little tinies, in that water like it was 90 degree outside (it was about 65) and 70 degrees in the wet. That water couldn't have been more than 45 degrees and I am being generous. Brrrrrrrrr!

nj2nh

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by nj2nh

I never did go in the water on this trip and neither did my fourteen-year-old son (wimp). Some of our gang did brave the icy stuff, but not me. And, when they did go in, they jumped right out.

We also went up to the Kancamagus Highway to see how high the water was on the Swift (?) River. THE WATER WAS FREEZING! And yet, there were people, including a few little tinies, in that water like it was 90 degree outside (it was about 65) and 70 degrees in the wet. That water couldn't have been more than 45 degrees and I am being generous. Brrrrrrrrr!

nj2nh

I was up there earlier this summer, in mid-July. The water was not quite warm, but it was warmer than I have ever felt that river to be. It was actually pretty nice. I would imagine the rain chilled it off quite a bit. It washed all the warm water downstream.