7-14 May 2009: Rain, then maybe hot again

CanisLupusArctos · 05-06-2009, 07:34 PM

Expect the next few days including the weekend to be cloudy at best, and heavy rain possible Thursday into Friday morning. Cold air digging south from Canada has touched off a round of severe storms along a line from Virginia to the deep south, and this moisture will travel northeastward tonight through Friday. The severe component of this weather will not hold together but the moisture-wringing will. This should give us up to an inch of rain by Friday morning. Bulk of this storm will probably head over New York State, keeping to our west. However, because of the localized nature of this rain's origins (severe thunderstorms) I would expect that there will be pockets of heavy rain (former thunderstorms) mixed in with a general area of moderate rain, while it is over us. Amounts will average around 3/4 of an inch across the area. Where the pockets of heavy rain hit, and also on south-facing slopes, I would expect an inch of rain and possibly 1.25 inch.

Friday we will see a break but it doesn't look like a sunny one... just a letup in the rain. Friday night we go back in the rain. The weekend looks showery and cool as well.

However, 10-day GFS is hinting at yet another occurance of Bermuda high pressure from Tuesday onward. That is when high pressure--which has a clockwise flow of air several thousand miles in diameter--puts its center over or near Bermuda. That puts the south-to-north portion of the clockwise flow on the east coast. It draws air from the Gulf of Mexico and sends it right up I-95 to New England.

The Bermuda high is what gave us the 90-degree weekend in April. I wouldn't be surprised to see a recurrence IF the Bermuda high actually sets up as the GFS says it might. That is still several days away. Right now I would go with the model and say "70s" until I become more confident that the Bermuda high will materialize. If that does happen, you'll see me bump up my temperature forecast.

As always, the latest current weather for the lake is available from the Black Cat Island weather station at www.blackcatnh.com/weather.

05-06-2009, 07:34 PM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	7-14 May 2009: Rain, then maybe hot again Expect the next few days including the weekend to be cloudy at best, and heavy rain possible Thursday into Friday morning. Cold air digging south from Canada has touched off a round of severe storms along a line from Virginia to the deep south, and this moisture will travel northeastward tonight through Friday. The severe component of this weather will not hold together but the moisture-wringing will. This should give us up to an inch of rain by Friday morning. Bulk of this storm will probably head over New York State, keeping to our west. However, because of the localized nature of this rain's origins (severe thunderstorms) I would expect that there will be pockets of heavy rain (former thunderstorms) mixed in with a general area of moderate rain, while it is over us. Amounts will average around 3/4 of an inch across the area. Where the pockets of heavy rain hit, and also on south-facing slopes, I would expect an inch of rain and possibly 1.25 inch. Friday we will see a break but it doesn't look like a sunny one... just a letup in the rain. Friday night we go back in the rain. The weekend looks showery and cool as well. However, 10-day GFS is hinting at yet another occurance of Bermuda high pressure from Tuesday onward. That is when high pressure--which has a clockwise flow of air several thousand miles in diameter--puts its center over or near Bermuda. That puts the south-to-north portion of the clockwise flow on the east coast. It draws air from the Gulf of Mexico and sends it right up I-95 to New England. The Bermuda high is what gave us the 90-degree weekend in April. I wouldn't be surprised to see a recurrence IF the Bermuda high actually sets up as the GFS says it might. That is still several days away. Right now I would go with the model and say "70s" until I become more confident that the Bermuda high will materialize. If that does happen, you'll see me bump up my temperature forecast. As always, the latest current weather for the lake is available from the Black Cat Island weather station at www.blackcatnh.com/weather.

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