Ice Out

Alton Bay · 03-12-2011, 10:50 AM

Anyone out there have some realistic thoughts regarding ice out? I notice there is a lot more open water around my dock.
Just wondering.

Bear Island South · 03-12-2011, 03:50 PM

I would say 5 more weeks, I drilled today and we have 12+ inches in our cove

Pontoon Goon · 03-12-2011, 04:11 PM

Check out the Ice Out Page and you will find 570 opinions.

Alton Bay · 03-12-2011, 04:36 PM

I think of those posts as guesses. I'm looking for ice info

Lakesrider · 03-12-2011, 05:21 PM

I saw several trucks out on the ice at various points around the lake today. Mostly pulling Bob Houses off. So it must be thick enough for now. Closer to shore is going to be the issue.

Rattlesnake Guy · 03-12-2011, 07:46 PM

Statistically speaking.... Average of April 19th - 20th. With an amazingly small standard deviation. 50% of the time it is between April 13th and April 25th. Last year was an early out-lier with a new record of March 24 (During the 123 years anyways) . Breaking the previous record from 1921.

corollaman · 03-12-2011, 09:25 PM

we might break the record of the latest ice out though,the thick snowpack protected it from the sun for so long

webmaster · 03-13-2011, 01:09 PM

The water temp at the dam reached 35° this weekend. Last year it did that by February 10th leading to an early Ice-Out on March 24th. We're about a month behind last year's readings. Will Ice-Out also be a month later and return to its usual late April timing?

This'nThat · 03-13-2011, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webmaster

Will Ice-Out also be a month later and return to its usual late April timing?

A lot of sledders sure think so. Dozens of sleds are zooming by today, thinking the lake is rock solid, I guess.

Alton Bay · 03-13-2011, 06:34 PM

So, do you think the ice is still "rock solid"?

Lakesrider · 03-13-2011, 07:00 PM

Going by the Libby ramp in Wolfeboro, I could see water at the end of the ramp. There was a truck loading up but they were hauling the stuff up not driving onto the ice. The shoreline must be starting to melt.....At least there any way.

Blue Thunder · 03-13-2011, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alton Bay

So, do you think the ice is still "rock solid"?

Most of you won't care about this analogy but Sebago Lake in Maine bears striking similarities to Winnipesaukee when it comes to Ice Out and the dates. Since I have been keeping track, about ten years, only once did ice out occur other than in the same 2 day window.

There has been a HUGE difference in ice conditions this week, to the point that I couldn't/wouldn't chance going over to my place by sled which is on an island about 1/2 to 3/4 mile from shore. The lake has risen 6 inches this week from runoff and melting. The ice has pulled away from shore by several feet. The top 8 inches of the ice has that "honeycomb" look, a sure sign that the process has begun. The bottom 8 inches is solid ice. With the temps forecast in the next 6-10 days, I would expect the slow progression of what we're all waiting for to continue.

The absolute clincher for me today was the fact that there was NOT ONE ice fisherman on the ice in an area that just 2 weeks ago had hundreds of vehicles on it for the annual fishing derby.

Be Safe,

Blue Thunder

Alton Bay · 03-13-2011, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alton Bay

Most of you won't care about this analogy but Sebago Lake in Maine bears striking similarities to Winnipesaukee when it comes to Ice Out and the dates. Since I have been keeping track, about ten years, only once did ice out occur other than in the same 2 day window.

I think that's very interesting. I wonder if the dates will be close this year. Many of us go by Lily Pond's ice out, but it's great to have another date to refer to.

Lakesrider · 03-14-2011, 08:47 AM

Going by 20 mile bay you can see the ice is starting to change color as well. 20 mile is pretty shallow, which might affect it quicker than other areas. Got a kind of grayish blue tint to it now.

Lakesrider · 03-14-2011, 01:15 PM

About 4 feet of open water 'til you hit ice at the boat ramp on Lake st, in Wolfeboro.

Island Girl · 03-16-2011, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webmaster

The water temp at the dam reached 35° this weekend. Last year it did that by February 10th leading to an early Ice-Out on March 24th. We're about a month behind last year's readings. Will Ice-Out also be a month later and return to its usual late April timing?

It is anyone's guess!! (or IG was bored and looked all this up)

35° as an indicator of ice-out

Date water temp reached 35	Ice-out	Days from 35 degrees until ice-out
2/10/2010	3/24/2010	42
3/18/2009	4/12/2009	25
2/2/2008	4/23/2008	81
3/13/2007	4/23/2007	41
3/8/2006	4/3/2006	26
2/18/2005	4/20/2005	61
1/28/2004	4/20/2004	83
3/26/2003	4/25/2003	30
2/12/2002	4/5/2002	52
4/15/2001	5/2/2001	17

Blue Thunder · 03-16-2011, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Island Girl

It is anyone's guess!! (or IG was bored and looked all this up)

35° as an indicator of ice-out

Date water temp reached 35	Ice-out	Days from 35 degrees until ice-out
2/10/2010	3/24/2010	42
3/18/2009	4/12/2009	25
2/2/2008	4/23/2008	81
3/13/2007	4/23/2007	41
3/8/2006	4/3/2006	26
2/18/2005	4/20/2005	61
1/28/2004	4/20/2004	83
3/26/2003	4/25/2003	30
2/12/2002	4/5/2002	52
4/15/2001	5/2/2001	17

Well, since YOU are the official ice out page guru AND you don't have it up yet.....what are we supposed to think????

webmaster · 03-16-2011, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webmaster

Last year it did that by February 10th leading to an early Ice-Out on March 24th. We're about a month behind last year's readings.

My records show that the lake hit 35 on February 10th in 2010. That would make it 42 days from 35 to Ice-Out last year.

Island Girl · 03-16-2011, 02:29 PM

I wonder where I got that date...

I fixed it.

Thanks Don!

Grady223 · 03-21-2011, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Island Girl

I wonder where I got that date...

I fixed it.

Thanks Don!

Don't worry, we appreciate all you do for us IG.

Doesn't seem like it makes a difference any way. There doesn't seem to be a correlation between 35° and Ice Out - ranges from 17 days to 81 days. However...2007 it also reached 35° on 3/13 and Ice Out was 4/23 - 41 days. I think we will move faster than that, about mid-April.

03-12-2011, 10:50 AM	#1
Alton Bay Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Alton Bay Posts: 188 Thanks: 73 Thanked 24 Times in 21 Posts	Ice Out Anyone out there have some realistic thoughts regarding ice out? I notice there is a lot more open water around my dock. Just wondering.

03-12-2011, 04:11 PM	#3
Pontoon Goon Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Stoneham Ma./ Meredith Posts: 141 Thanks: 339 Thanked 67 Times in 27 Posts	Everyone has one Check out the Ice Out Page and you will find 570 opinions.

03-12-2011, 07:46 PM	#6
Rattlesnake Guy Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 1,254 Thanks: 423 Thanked 366 Times in 175 Posts	If you consider the last 123 years Statistically speaking.... Average of April 19th - 20th. With an amazingly small standard deviation. 50% of the time it is between April 13th and April 25th. Last year was an early out-lier with a new record of March 24 (During the 123 years anyways) . Breaking the previous record from 1921.

03-13-2011, 01:09 PM	#8
webmaster Moderator Join Date: Jun 2002 Posts: 2,459 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 459 Thanked 3,854 Times in 842 Posts	Consider this... The water temp at the dam reached 35° this weekend. Last year it did that by February 10th leading to an early Ice-Out on March 24th. We're about a month behind last year's readings. Will Ice-Out also be a month later and return to its usual late April timing?

03-16-2011, 02:29 PM	#19
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,352 Thanks: 18 Thanked 535 Times in 179 Posts	I fixed the chart I wonder where I got that date... I fixed it. Thanks Don! __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

03-12-2011, 03:50 PM	#2
Bear Island South Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Southboro, MA Posts: 579 Thanks: 75 Thanked 384 Times in 170 Posts	I would say 5 more weeks, I drilled today and we have 12+ inches in our cove

03-12-2011, 04:36 PM	#4
Alton Bay Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Alton Bay Posts: 188 Thanks: 73 Thanked 24 Times in 21 Posts	I think of those posts as guesses. I'm looking for ice info

03-12-2011, 05:21 PM	#5
Lakesrider Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,129 Thanks: 380 Thanked 1,016 Times in 345 Posts	I saw several trucks out on the ice at various points around the lake today. Mostly pulling Bob Houses off. So it must be thick enough for now. Closer to shore is going to be the issue.

03-12-2011, 09:25 PM	#7
corollaman Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Laconia NH Posts: 181 Thanks: 8 Thanked 10 Times in 9 Posts	we might break the record of the latest ice out though,the thick snowpack protected it from the sun for so long

03-13-2011, 06:34 PM	#10
Alton Bay Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Alton Bay Posts: 188 Thanks: 73 Thanked 24 Times in 21 Posts	So, do you think the ice is still "rock solid"?

03-13-2011, 07:00 PM	#11
Lakesrider Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,129 Thanks: 380 Thanked 1,016 Times in 345 Posts	Going by the Libby ramp in Wolfeboro, I could see water at the end of the ramp. There was a truck loading up but they were hauling the stuff up not driving onto the ice. The shoreline must be starting to melt.....At least there any way.

The Following User Says Thank You to Lakesrider For This Useful Post:
Alton Bay (03-13-2011)

The Following User Says Thank You to Blue Thunder For This Useful Post:
Alton Bay (03-13-2011)

03-14-2011, 08:47 AM	#14
Lakesrider Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,129 Thanks: 380 Thanked 1,016 Times in 345 Posts	Going by 20 mile bay you can see the ice is starting to change color as well. 20 mile is pretty shallow, which might affect it quicker than other areas. Got a kind of grayish blue tint to it now.

03-14-2011, 01:15 PM	#15
Lakesrider Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,129 Thanks: 380 Thanked 1,016 Times in 345 Posts	About 4 feet of open water 'til you hit ice at the boat ramp on Lake st, in Wolfeboro.

The Following User Says Thank You to webmaster For This Useful Post:
Alton Bay (03-17-2011)