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#1 |
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Ok, so I know it's been unusually warm, and we really can't define "Ice-In". But with the forecast now showing more normal nighttime temps well below freezing, and the water temperature approaching the 30's, it's time for ice reports. I expect we'll start seeing areas of skim ice within the next week. This thread will serve for those posts.
The lake normally is mostly iced-in by early January. Despite this year's warm Fall temps, the water temperatures seem to be fairly normal for this time of year (plus or minus a few degrees). It will be interesting to see how it evolves this year. |
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#2 | |
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It takes quite a while for the top layer (several feet) of water to reach the uniform 39 degree threshold of maximum density that is required for it to freeze. Then you need several nights of clear, calm, and cold (0-10 degrees) to make it all happen. Time will tell.... BT
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#3 |
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Agreed. As I said in the earlier note, it's usually early to mid-January , at the earliest, before the lake is considered mostly covered. But I would not be surprised to hear of shallow coves and other areas having a skim coat in the AM on some of the upcoming mornings with temps in the teens. I'm sure this will disappear as the day wears on, but it's the start of the process.
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#4 |
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yesterday's water temp is 6 degrees warmer than last year on the same day
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#5 |
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The law of averages. Too early to worry about ice in. Getting colder. Be patient.
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#6 |
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This is from the Farmers Almanac:
DECEMBER 2011: temperature 29° (5° above avg. north, 1° below south); precipitation 3" (avg.); Dec 1-4: Rainy periods, quite mild; Dec 5-8: Flurries, seasonable; Dec 9-16: Snow showers; mild, then cold; Dec 17-21: Blizzard, then windy, cold; Dec 22-23: Heavy snow, seasonable; Dec 24-29: Snow showers, mild; Dec 30-31: Sunny, cold. JANUARY 2012: temperature 23° (3° above avg.); precipitation 2" (1" below avg.); Jan 1-8: Sunny, then snow showers, mild; Jan 9-12: Sunny, cold; Jan 13-19: Snow north, showers south, then sunny, mild; Jan 20-26: Snowstorm, then snow showers, seasonable; Jan 27-31: Snow showers, very cold.
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#7 |
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On Sunday morning (12/11/11) there was a good skim ice in the Lees Mills area. The attached photo is showing Lees Landing.
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#8 |
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It's been posted on this site before, but with ice forming over the next month, this reminder from the Farmers Almanac on safe ice levels is worth reviewing (though if we stay 4-5 degrees above average temps much longer, it may not happen this winter)
http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.alm...ethickness.pdf |
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#9 |
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Looking at the 15-day forecast through Accuweather there looks to be a brief cool down in the next week and then warmer again. There may not be a Ice In this year.
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#11 |
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#12 |
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According to today's Friday LaDaSun, the Gunstock ski area wants to get open for this season with maybe two trails open or something on this Sunday, December 18. What with today's sunny and mid-40's temps here in Meredith, that doesn't seem possible, but maybe they'll get enough snow making time crammed into the Saturday predicted cold snap? ....stay tuned....can they do it?
Most likely, the ground up on Gunstock mountain has yet to freeze up what with all the rainfall over the last two days. ...say-hey....there's always outdoor tennis at your local free public tennis courts and you don't need to purchase an expensive lift ticket to use the courts.....tennis!
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#13 |
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water temp this year on Dec 14 was 43 same as last year on dec 2 so we are as of now running about two weeks later than last year
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#14 |
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A couple of the web cams show some ice this morning. Alton bay cam looks the best.
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#16 | |
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#17 |
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Taken from 28A near the old Oak Birch Inn.
![]() and from Railroad Park on the west side of the bay. ![]() small steps!!!!
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#18 |
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Ice melted a lot since I saw it at 8 this morning.
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#19 |
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I saw a sheen of ice on the Wentworth webcam in early morning yesterday. I fear real winter will never come, what a horrible thought!
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#20 |
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... is completely iced over. Drove by it today on my way to the Gilford recycle station.
Wonder if it's the same as Ice Out. "They" (whoever They are) say that Lilly Pond goes Ice Out 2 weeks before Winni, maybe it goes "Ice In" 2 weeks before?
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#21 |
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The 10 day outlook on weather.com shows lows in the 20's. That is not ideal for ice making. I hope we don't have a repeat of 2006 when the derby was delayed and there were soft spots all over the place.
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#22 |
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The thickest ice I saw on my way to work this morning was on I93 from Tilton to Manchester. Jeesh.....thanks for the heads up weather forecasters. The scene around the Hooksett tolls was down right apocalyptic.
And I think Winni is going to take a heck of a lot longer than 2 weeks to ice in. This is a bad weather pattern if you enjoy snow and lake ice. |
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#23 |
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Has there been a year that the lake hasnt frozen over ?
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#24 |
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I know there have been years when the broads never locked up.
I know it's still fall, but the bays should be locked up with ice by now right? (even if it's just a couple of inches) Alton bay seems to be the only one holding any ice and Moultonboro bay seems like it's trying hard. My knowledge is only based on what I can see from the cameras. |
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#25 |
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It was surprising to see some of Moultonborough Bay frozen this morning. It had frozen about half-way across over the weekend, but blew out in Monday's winds. Tuesday AM, it was frozen half-way again with a light coat of snow on it. Now, the rains have come and it is looking very thin and gray. It will probably not last till tomorrow.
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#26 |
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lake temp at 40 still two weeks behind last year
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#27 |
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The water temp is pretty much where it was in December of 2006, a year when many also worried there would be no ice-in. The lake was still mostly open in late January.
But it got very cold in late January, and February, and by the end of January, there were reports of 10" of ice. It can change quickly. It is New England, after all. http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ghlight=iceout |
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#28 |
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And, this website reports today's Weirs Beach air temp at 1:33-pm to be 48-degrees......now that's pretty warm for December 22!
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#29 |
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#30 |
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Ice-out records have been kept for 125 years (beginning in 1887). Over that time, there hasn't been a single year that the lake didn't freeze over (although the broads might have remained open). Ice out has occured in April 109 times; 13 times in May; and 3 times in March.
The ice-out history can be found here. |
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#31 |
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I guess we can declare "ice-in" this morning (Dec 25). The Mt Washington can't make it down the bay today without cutting through a lot of ice. It moved in quickly this morning, and there is a thin sheet of ice at least 1.5 miles long.
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#32 |
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we went out to the island yesterday and just a little ice around the mainland dock... it was a beautiful day for a ride in the alumacraft... but the 'wind chill' was freezing when we got any speed up!
we didn't see any (other fools) out on the water hoping for ice -PIG |
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#33 |
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With temps remaining in the 40's through the night and heavy wind and rain, We should see much of the skim ice in the protected coves and bays disappear tomorrow night.
But then the next night will be in the low teens, and it will stay below freezing for 24+ hours, so much of it will probably reform. |
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#34 |
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On the way to the dump, errrr landfill, errrrr Transfer Station (ah, politically correct at last
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#35 |
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If you look at this thread; http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ad.php?t=11360 it looks like the broads finally froze right around January 14th last year. Based on this and the 10 day forecast we will be at least two weeks or more later this year.
Thoughts or predictions?? Dan |
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#36 |
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I look at long range weather models as a hobby. They are not always correct, but they do show a trend. Within the last week, two of these long range models have started to show that cold weather, below normal cold weather that is, is coming.
These two models are predicting each of the next three months of 2012 will be below normal temperature-wise in our part of the world. Since it appears the first week or so of January will be near or very slightly above normal, this tells me that it is possible the colder than normal weather will get going soon after the first week in January. If this happens, it could "rescue" the winter activities on the lake. However, we are well behind where we should be this time of the year and as we get into late January, the sun angle gets higher and that starts impacting ice growth, especially if there is no snow on the ice to reflect back the suns rays. Bottom line is, IF these two long range models are correct, we could still have a reasonable winter. However, if they do not have it right and the warm trend of the last six months continues, we will remember this winter as one with poor, unsafe ice conditions. I only have been looking at temperatures, not the more complicated view on precipitation, so I am not saying these models are predicting big snow storms. They might or might not be doing this, I have not looked at this that deeply. We need to get it cold first. I share this only to say there is a possible light at the end of the tunnel. Let's hope it is not another train! ![]() R2B |
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#37 |
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As of now, weather.com (TWC) shows some pretty cold temps for the next 10days. The predicted 5* low will help give the ice a jump.
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There was people on lake pemingewasset today
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#39 |
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Wmur stated today that this could be a year that Winni does not completely freeze over. Let's forget about ice inane just concentrate on ice out, ha ha ha.
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#40 |
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In keeping with tradition and philosophy (well mine anyway...) I am declaring this thread the Official Ice-in Thread rather than start a new one. Traditionally I start this thread in late Decemeber when it looks like the water is getting cold enough to freeze. It has been warm and I have been attending to other matters so am too late to start a new thread as this one has so much good info and pictures!
I love it when ice-in pics and discussion are all in one thread for easy reading. (again, just my philosophy, not a demand! ![]() The Ice-In Pageisup at www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm. Here you can watch the lake freeze from many different cams. I think this is the 8th year the page has been live! This year is a new cam.... one that has an incredible view, and is much welcome. Please wander on over and see if you can find it! Thanks to our newest webcam operator!!!! The lake temp reported by the dam operators is 35 degrees. The broads can freeze when this thermometer is at that reading or a little below. We don't really know what the lake temp is out there, this is just historically what has happened over the last several years. Let it ice, let it ice, let it ice....... IG ![]() Sorry for being so late this year
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#41 |
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Measured 8 inches of ice Blackey's cove, about 1000 feet from shore......
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That was EASY...Mr. Hughes has a cam at Minge Cove now??!!!
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Time for some skating
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We have been ice skating on the north end of the big lake since Christmas Day .
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Does anyone know when the Alton winter festival is scheduled this year? Praying for cold !
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Alton Winter festival or carnival will be held on Sunday Feb 19.
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Using reverse logic, technically we already have Ice-In.
If Ice-out is when the Mount can navigate to all it's ports without hitting ice, then I guess Ice-In is once it can't get to it's ports without hitting ice. Given Alton and Center Harbor have ice.... ![]() |
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Question for you weather pros. I've been following the weather out there for the past couple weeks due to the warm weather. I'm a bit concerned about ice for our trip out next month. I typically look at Weather.com but today looked at Accuweather.com and noticed there is a fairly substantial difference in the forcasted temps from one site to the other. For example for tomorrow weather.com has H16 & L-5 whereas accuweather.com has H22 & L1.
So my question is (especially for those who live there year round) which site do you feel more accurately predicts the weather/temps? FYI our place is in Meredith so that is the location I always search. Thanks. ![]() |
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http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...2=-71.5043&e=1
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I really enjoy watching the live stream in Alton. About 7:15 AM I watched about a dozen people crossing the ice to fish. Enjoy. Any other places on the Lake that firm?
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4 degrees in Merecith tonight and NO ice on the bay yet. Yay!!!!!!!!! Ready to put the boat in.
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The bay will freeze tomorrow night. Let's hope it thickens up before the wind gets going again. R2B Last edited by Resident 2B; 01-15-2012 at 12:43 AM. |
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I agree with R2B. We will see the lake skimmed over Monday when we wake up!
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I think there will still be too much of a breeze........you guys are the experts though.
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High confidence with this. R2B |
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It also expect that we will see a lot of areas freeze over the next few days if the wind dies. It's certainly cold enough.
But as CLA pointed out in his "double-digit dates" note, the solar gain is already getting stronger. I was amazed this morning when looking outside. We have a porch roof on our house that can be seen from an upstairs window. The area under the roof is unheated. The outside thermometer reading was 4 degrees. Despite all this, the black-shingled roof, facing the mid-morning sun, was melting the snow on the roof at an amazing pace. The water was just pouring off the roof. The weather, as always, remains fascinating. |
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Will let you know in the morning what the bay looks like.
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Does anyone know what Glendale access is like today? I know it was open yesterday. We could really use a cam at MP headquarters!
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Looks like it is frozen today. Meredith Bay to the Broads looks like it is iced over.
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Oh My God even the Snake Eyes cam is now showing ICE
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It does appear that the broads in front of Snake Eyes is icing over... just have to keep the wind down for a while longer. This is fun to watch.... usually ice over happens overnight and we wake up to a frozen lake. It was disappointing to see blue wavy water this morning.
Ripples seem to be in the view as well as either ice or very shiny still water. IG
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seems to me like it is ice, looks different than the usual water ripples, but then again I am hoping in praying here
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Merrymeeting finally iced over today too. It is very thin, but no open water that I can see.
I drove on Rt 495 today. Crossing over the Merrimack you could see large pieces of ice drifting in the water. First time I've seen that this year. Clearly the water is cold enough... |
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A lot of the ice broke up on Winnisquam and in Meredith a lot of the bay was back open again and one of the bob houses that was next to Lago's is gone.
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We finally have ice-in on Merrymeeting Lake this morning. While the wind did open a large hole in the ice in the middle of the lake yesterday, it is completely frozen over today and looks very solid. WIth no temps above freezing for the next several days, it isn't going anywhere by thicker.
I expect Winni will follow a similar path. Seems a lot llike 06/07. A late-January ice-in. |
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If anyone is in meredith today..can you check on the bay...take some snapshots/ real cold lastnight and its at 1 degree with no wind..how's it looking?
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Paugus bay is iced over and it looked like the area between the end Meredith and Weirs was iced over. I didn't have to drive down to the docks so I'm not sure what the bay looks like.
Really ugly looking ice though and the forecast is for temps in the 40's next week maybe near 50 for Monday.
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With the current conditions mixed in with the forecast for the next 3 days, I expect that your outlook may be pessimistic. It remains to be seen but in my opinion we will have enough build up between now and Monday to withstand Monday.
For the record, Monday is projected to be overcast/light snow, this will not have the negative impact of a bright sunny day. Hang in there! |
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Where are you getting that forecast?? Meredith on Monday: high of 36 with light rain/freezing rain.
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We were just talking about how up and down the numbers have been this year. One day they are calling for 40 the next day 30's and we wind up in the teen's. But yes they were calling for 40's at least 3 days next week and now it's down to mid 30's with rain on monday.
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Meredith Bay just re-iced in last night, because most of it was open around 4:30PM yesterday.
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Good Morning to Everyone,
Having just signed on this would be my first time posting a forum for all to read. This past Sunday I declared "Ice in" on the big lake. While we have not been out yet today I would not be surprised that the areas that were last to freeze Saturday night and Sunday in the Broads were to reopen today with temps in the 40's and Sunshine. Not to worry for those Ice enthusiast, It will return as the winter progresses. |
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Welcome to the forum David, it is always great to have first hand information.
Looking out from Belknap point this morning I did not see open water however there was a layer of water on top of what ice there is. |
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A lot of the cameras seem to not be updated today, or in the last few days. Minge Cove cam show things opening up. I will be curious to see what the rattlesnakecam looks like by the end of the day if it comes back online.
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I am not sure why Snake Eyes is not updating... I am trying to find out if there is a power outage on the island. I don't think anyone is living there this year so that would eliminate any immediate help.
I was thinking of starting an ice-out thread. ![]()
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Anyone have a view of Meredith Bay?
I'm wondering if there is any chance that the Pond Hockey Classic, scheduled for Feb 3-5 (ummm, next weekend) in Meredith has any chance of happening. It looks like the forecast for the next week is wintery, but up to high 30's during the day and mid 20's at night. I'm just not confident that Meredith Bay will support 16 playing surfaces, each covered with hockey players, dozens of sponsor sheds, warming huts, vendor buildings, etc., etc. Any thoughts or projections??????? |
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A trip today along Rt. 11 from Minge Cove in West Alton to Gilford showed the lake to be solid all the way across. We could see no areas of open water. It's impossible to tell how thick the ice is, but the rainwater that was sitting on top of the ice yesterday had frozen overnight in all areas we could see.
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Just spoke with my Parents on Pleasant Street. They believe the tournament has already been moved to Waukewan ( I am pretty sure he meant Waukewan) where 17 rinks have been set up. He also mentioned that there were 2 rinks set up on Winni but I would not expect the being used. The Ice is there but not thick enough yet according to them and they are monitoring daily. I believe we will have a small gain but still a net gain in ice this week but I do not see the chance for an event based on the warm daytime temps. I think we are looking good for the Derby at this point but I have no idea what the LT forecast is and that will be the deciding factor. Supposedly Meredith Rotary was having a meeting tonight in regard to the schedule. |
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Has ice-in been officially declared yet?
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Two large holes opened up yesterday on the northwest side of Diamond Island. I just saw people out in this same vicinity on Saturday, so they're lucky that they didn't fall through.
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