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#1 |
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Welcome to the Official 2012 Ice-Out thread. The lake temperature reached 38 degrees this morning. Ice-out has occured in recent years from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam. You can also observe the 2 ft and 10 ft temps rising at http://www.blackcatnh.com/ (just under the Black Cat Island Weather Cam picture)
The lake is covered with new snow this morning, but that is just Mother Nature trying to confuse us! The ice out page is up at www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm where you can watch the ice melt. Unfortunately Snake Eyes did not come back when the power was restored to Rattlesnake Island this month. She needs a reboot and no one is able to get to the island to do that. Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. It looks to be another record early melt! Click to see the lake 13 days before iceout in 2010, http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Feature...ce-3-12-10.JPG IG
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#2 |
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The Black Cat Cam is really showing some expanding open water areas today.
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#3 |
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![]() ![]() WeirsCam ![]() Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam (Black Cat Cam) Water Temperature at 2 ft: 36.3 °F Water Temperature at 10 ft: 38.8 °F ![]() Minge Cove Webcam I have a report that Silver Lake in Hollis is ice free. Historically speaking, it has been one week ahead of Lake Winnipesaukee since I have been paying attention. I suspect this may not be the case, though last year I thought the same thing and it was a one week spread. Regardless, all indicators seem to point to another historic ice-out!!! |
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#4 |
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Much as I'd like it, and despite the temps, it IS still February. Longer range forecasts show some pretty cold nights coming up next week. While it may start breaking up, I think we're going to have ice around for awhile.
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#5 |
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Today's satellite photo with the feather dusting of snow shows just how much of the lake has as least "some" ice on it. I suspect it is very thin in some spots. Sorry for the clouds. I can't control that. The lake is dead center.
BT
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#6 | |
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Sorry for the PM. I see the correlation you are trying to make. BT
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#8 |
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I've been waiting for this! I was actually going to post some iceout related observations this AM, but I didn't want to be presumptuous, no worries now. Canobie Lake in Salem and another small nameless pond are typical measures I use for iceout on Winni and they are usually ice free 2 to 3 weeks before. Canobie had a lot of open water (couldn't see the whole thing) and the little pond was totally clear. Not sure if that will hold true this year with it being so early, but it sure is nice to see. Better call the insurance company and change the my in water date
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#9 |
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I was in Alton today. Lots of standing water on the bay and some good cracks with water opening about half way down. It looks very porous just past Loon Cove.
The cam at Downings is showing some ice chunking up. Still lots of bob houses on the bay- I think if they are not off by the beginning of the week they may be bobbing! |
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#10 |
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Typically how long after Silver lake is Winnipesaukee?
Forget the question, didn't see it in the post above, sorry. Last edited by Chaos; 02-22-2012 at 05:16 PM. Reason: Didn't see the answer above |
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#11 |
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Time to get the boat ready!!!
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#12 |
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Rowboat and sailboats, yes! With the way gas prices are, I'm not sure how often the big boat will leave the dock. ; )
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#13 |
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i know one thing
Sand bars will be extra busy this year, get there early also wont be much boating in chop
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#14 |
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People still have to get from point A to point B. With gas prices going up (one MASS station was already at $4.19 this morning) many might elect not to venture this far for vacation.
![]() Of course maybe some of the vacation places might actually have to drop their prices this summer to attract people up. It is hard to believe how many will complain about not having business and never once consider dropping their prices to attract business. Something is always better then nothing. ![]() One good thing is with the timing of the fuel price increases there is a really good chance that I will get to see diesel fuel priced lower then regular gas. This will only happen during the summer when home heating oil demand is down. So it might be cheaper to drive my diesel then my gas vehicle. Bike will be out really soon though. ![]()
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#15 |
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#16 |
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Two signs of early Spring today,
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#17 |
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Saw a very large flock of Canadian Geese today on some open water on Wheelwright Pond in Lee today. They were there just before noon and I saw them again about 4:00 PM. So Ice Out can't be too far away on Winni!
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#18 |
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Looks like next week is going to be rain with temps in the forties during the day. Thinking that my first ice out guess in my life...is going to be WAY OFF.
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#19 | |
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Ice out to me really means getting from gyc to mark, as this early in the year it is all I need. I am sure that path will be well clear before some of the bays. |
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#20 |
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The Sandwich area has more snow in the woods than most other areas, so we will get at least some runoff. There also could easily be a large rain event in the spring. Don't worry too much yet. The lake is about 1/2 foot above normal for this time of year.
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#21 |
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I hear Lily Pond still has ice but is looking pretty grey, this should be a good indicator of when we will see ice-out.
I do believe we will see open water on the lake in March, however we will be waiting on Center Harbor and Alton Bay to let loose which may not be until late March. As soon as the ice clears between Meredith Neck and Bear that will be my ice-out. |
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#22 | |
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But, as an example, several areas of the Merrymeeting River that had opened up in the past week have closed or skimmed over again. The low temps at night at this time of year tend to offset the loss during the day. The net result is a LONG period of not much happening toward ice-out. Especially this year as the "average" temperatures between now and mid-April will tend toward the status quo. Having said that, it is interesting to see holes opening up in areas visible on the Ossipee webcam. Ossipee, in the area viewed by the webcam, usually freezes before Winnipesaukee, and opens later. But the melting/errosion from the higher temps below the ice seems to be having an effect. |
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#24 |
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#25 |
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Couple holes opened up on the Ossippe web cam this week. The one thing I always learned about on Winni iice out it comes down to 2 things........amount of rain and the amount of wind. Wind can destroy a alot of soft ice fast.
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#26 |
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Is the ice thin enough for these winds to have an impact?
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#27 |
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Hope we make more ice-out progress with these sunny days and the couple predicted warm days!
![]() WeirsCam - March 5th ![]() Minge Cove Webcam - March 5th ![]() Sunday, March 4, 2012 MODIS Satellite image of the lake from March 4th (5th not available yet) ![]() Varney Point Cam Gilford - March 5th ![]() Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam Water Temperature at 2 ft: 36.4 °F |
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#28 |
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Do not forget Spring forward this weekend with day light savings
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#29 | |
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Was talking with a guy from Winni Marine Construction that same day and he said there's an open spot by the sand bar going into West Alton Marina and that the ice is very thin. He also said that a biologist went through the ice last week, behind Rattlesnake if I recall but perhaps someone has more information. Fortunately he made it out. |
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#30 |
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This is one of my favorite times watching Ice Out and following the Forum. Never would have guessed that I would be watching ice melt daily. But the daialy looks at the Forum photos and postings help the emd of winter and begin the planning for the opening of the island.
In receent years have been able to get to island before official Ice Out. I expect to be on Rattlesnake at Easter this year. Call me an optimist! Keep up the postings |
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Looking at the satellite picture, it looks like a very large area of open water to the Broads side of Rattlesnake and two smaller open areas south of the big one. They look like big dark circles....am i seeing that correctly?
The snow makes it look like we are a lot further from ice out than before the snow fell but I'm guessing that optical illusion will be corrected after a few sunny days in the 50s later this week. |
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#32 |
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The ice north of M'boro bay has been booming all day - like it does in early January when it is getting thicker. With the recent cold temperatures, I'm wondering if some areas are becoming safe again? There is nobody out fishing to ask, but a few snowmobiles went by on the ice on Sunday.
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#35 |
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While the winds and warm forecast will surely begin their work, the ice was still solid from the Landing out to Rattlesnake. I went out yesterday by snowmobile and within minutes of arriving out at Rattlesnake was supprised to see two other snowmobiles come by cruising the shoreline (probably not a great time for joy-riding as the ice is very inconsistent). Not sure about the rest of the Island but the power is still on at the peninsula. Spent the night out there. Woke to the sound of turkeys and some big/fresh cat-tracks... Next visit will be by boat...
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#36 |
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Just looked out and noticed a little sailboat out in the open water off of Belknap Pt.
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#37 |
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...going out alone in a Sunfish like that with the water temp at about 38-degrees seems like a very risky thing to do.....what were they thinking when they made the decision to go sailing alone like this? Probably.....they would be better off to go join some local exercise group at a gym or club or somewhere and wait till ice out.....when there's more boats all around........ before going sailing like that.....some people just do dumb things and this seems dumb to me.....
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#39 | |
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#40 |
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We didn't venture out this year, it looked like it was never safe enought to do it.
Ice Out! I miss the island! |
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#41 |
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Flew over that lake yesterday and took these few pics. The ice has started to open from Sleepers to the eastern point of Rattlesnake Island, Wolfeboro Neck to Ship Island and just North of Diamond Island and from Locks Island to Welch Island. The snow will have little effect on the eventual outcome but still too early to say that it will be early this year. As a reminder, Ice is not declared until the MS Mt. Washington can freely navigate to all ports of call. We'll be watching closly in the coming weeks.
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I took these shots this mornig in Alton and Wolfeboro.
In this one you can see that the ice is moving further out into Wolfeboro Bay. http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...hp?photo=18413 This one was taken from the Rt 11 Scenic View area in Alton. If you look above the trees on the left you can see the open water spot that others have mentioned and shown in prior photos. http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...hp?photo=18412 The light dusting of snow makes the ice look stronger and more extensive than it is. But the sun is out now and it is melting fast. Here's a question for you lake historians... What is the Alton Bay Bandstand built upon? I've often wondered why it is not twisted and broken each winter as it never has bubblers around it, and it is always solidly locked in the ice. How does it survive each winter? |
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I believe that the bandstand is supported by a "crib" like structure that was constructed, then filled with rocks with a foundation placed on top.
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#44 |
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That is correct. Several years ago repairs were made to the underlying crib. The bandstand is maintained by the Alton parks and rec dept.
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Great photos !! thanks. Enjoy hearing about the ice out progress. Any info or photos on how it looks in Meredith Harbor?
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Yesterday's fly over revealed that the shorelines have receded a little bit more and the open water that I witnessed on Friday have grown just slightly. The Ice has blackened but still remains intact. I am predicting that we will not have "Ice out" before the first day of spring. Definitely early but no record...I think.
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Isn't the first day of spring March 20th? Wouldn't that be a record?? Thanks for the great info on the flyovers!! Looking forward to ice out! Dan |
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David
Any pics from the flyover? |
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Despite the speed at which the ice cubes melt in my drink on a 60 degree day, I'm always surprised at how long it takes the ice pack to disappear.
While the ice may look weak and much darker on the webcams, it is still surprisingly strong. I threw a softball-sized bolder high into the air and onto the ice in front of my property today. It bounced and barely made a dent. While I wouldn't walk on it, I estimate that the ice pack is still ~3" in many areas. Yes it is erroding each hour, and no freezing temps in sight. But there is still a lot of hard, dense, ice out there, and it will be awhile before it goes away. |
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Need wind. If there are some good size holes and cracks in it nothing gets rid of it faster than a good 2 day blow.
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Think about: Hot peppers.. Arizona in July... Coffee... Lava... Fireworks... S'mores!
![]() ![]() What a fun time! I need to go give the old boat it's spring pep talk! |
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notice the sheet of ice moving around on the Minge Cove time lapse? Mostly from the morning shots. It's good when they start moving around.
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Photo of Rattlesnake Landing taken this morning, if I did it right
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We always hope for calm days as the ice yields to the springtime sun. Windy days have pushed piles of ice floes against our dock [which is located on a very exposed point on East Bear Island] causing extensive damage, especially last year. If windy, we hope the wind is blowing from the north thus pushing the ice against our breakwater.
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I am with you Barney Bear
last year we had to replace a piling and two posts at the end of the perminant section of our docks. plus I have March 30th for ice out! ![]()
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As I drove by Lily Pond this morning, the ice was gone and a flock of geese had taken up residence.
LET THE COUNTDOWN BEGIN!!!!
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#58 |
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#59 |
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Mergansers are back. (species most responsible for duck itch) South Wolfeboro Bay is thinning out. Looking transparent like the Rattlesnake Island shot. Sorry no pix this morning.
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#60 |
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I guessed March 28th @ 3:01 for ice out this year. Based on what I'm seeing on the cams over the last couple of days, and with the full sunshine and warm temps going into next week, I'm afraid I guessed to late.
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#61 |
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I was trying to fool the "Bad Luck" day and picked Friday 4/13 at 4.13PM.. I'm going to be way off!
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#62 | |
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![]() ![]() Hopefully Mother Nature cooperates with my plan. I booked our boat for next Saturday, the 24th. If ice-out doesn't officially happen I hope we can get from Minge Cove to our boat slip in Alton Bay and out to the island. We've only been on the lake once so far before ice-out. I will be very happy if this isn't the second time! ![]() |
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#63 |
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Much more water visible off the point than 4 days ago. There is still ice off the Glendale docks.
Very nice lunch today at the Lyons' Den today for my wife's birthday, excellent food and service as always. |
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#64 | |
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![]() It may not be ice-out but I'm hoping to get from Sheps to Bear. |
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#65 |
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I broke this piece of ice off of a larger section near shore at about noon today. While the ice was still thick and relatively strong, as soon as I pulled it out of the water and onto the rock, all the water drained out. It was very porous.
![]() About an hour later, I lightly hit the chunk with a stick and it easily broke into these crystals. The ice became darker during the afternoon, and I expect it is approaching the point where the crystals will start to break apart. ![]() A windy day would do it, but there don't seem to be any in the near forecast. |
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#66 |
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If I remember correctly, Ice out usually occurs on Winnipesaukee about a week after Lily Pond. Quilt Lady posted on March 15th....if this holds true, we could see ice out by the 22nd! YAHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!
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#67 | |
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#69 |
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I saw a Loon today:... fishing in Narragansett Bay, RI. I've never seen one down here before. He was alone, no mate, and I'm guessing he's heading north.
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#70 |
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The earliest Ice Out was in 2010 on March 24 at 2:00 pm. That was the year that I won with a guess of March 24 at 2:12 pm. Winni-Retired was second and Michael Howe was third.
This year my guess was March 15 at 1:15 pm, so I already lost. ![]() ![]() So, if there is floating unattached ice, can that be considered Ice Out ? I hope that this warm dry weather continues all summer. ![]()
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#71 |
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What does Glendale look like? The Smith Cove cam looks like we have a bit to go before we can get to the marina but the Varney Point cam looks like things outside are going quick.
I am planning on dropping the boat in by Friday if Glendale is clear, even if it has to stay there at the town dock for a few days. |
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#72 |
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Weather stations showing 8 to 10 mph winds with 15 to 20 mph gusts. Won't be long. Let's see what morning brings.
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#73 |
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The same thing happened on Merrymeeting today. At noon, the whole lake was still pretty much ice covered. By sundown, large portions of the lake were open, and the remaining ice is looking very dark and fragile. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up and find it all gone.
Even more amazing, within an hour of the water opening up, we had about 20 water fowl swimming in the open water. They were far enough away I couldn't tell for sure, but through binoculars they looked like Merganzers. I'll post a picture I took of them shortly. Here they are. Guess there were more than 20! ![]() This is a cropped, zoom view. Anyone know what they are? ![]() Last edited by Merrymeeting; 03-19-2012 at 07:46 PM. Reason: add pics |
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#74 |
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There were a bunch of those on Pawtuckaway Lake on Saturday. Really skittish.
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#75 |
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#76 | |
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#77 |
Moderator
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After 3 pm yesterday the ice started to break up on the WeirsCAM. This short video shows the dramatic changes:
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#78 |
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So I went in to refresh my memory as to what my guess was this year. Apparently, I forgot to put in a time... but the date is tomorrow. Aaargh! I swear if my head wasn't attached, I'd lose it!!! Oh well, I'm still hoping for tomorrow....
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#79 |
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There was a boat on the Weirs cam half an hour or so ago. Some intrepid soul who can't wait a moment longer.
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#81 |
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By my unscientific count of over 600 guesses there are 13 of us in the running tomorrow.....More likely late Thursday when it's 85 degrees.
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#82 |
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Two shots of Sanders Bay from NHBoat.com's Ice-Out pages
(I just love the Old Man of the Lake!) ![]() ![]() ![]() Today's satellite shot from MODIS (Lightened up) Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam (603-527-0071) is reporting is 41° F Water Temperature at Black Cat Island: 2 ft: 40.7 °F and 10 ft: 41.8 °F |
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#83 |
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Wolfeboro Bay is all dark ice and broken up. It goes up and down on the waves a bit so it can't be that thick anymore.
I'll bet it will be gone on Thursday. The ice that is. ![]() |
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#84 |
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Seeing some Ice movement off Welch Island
Current Image Updated: 8:14 PM GMT on March 20, 2012 (1 minute ago) ![]() But Smith Cove needs another day or so. ![]()
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#85 |
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Here is 4:30 view of west side of Sleepers
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...1&d=1332276188 ...And the 4:30 view of the south side of Rattlesnake http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...1&d=1332276218 |
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#86 |
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your making me smile
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#87 |
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A friend sent this to me this morning...couple of more days maybe?
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#88 |
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Nice picture and perspective of Meredith bay. Anybody have any shots of Centre Harbor bay?
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#89 |
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We launched the Whaler at Glendale and made the trip over. A small amount of soft ice near Glendale but mostly open water with only very scattered thin ice sections.
The seasonal dock is down and the flag is up! |
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#90 |
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Its going fast. I think the Governors Island cam showed the most change today. I know some of you don't want wind but if we had a little I think you'd be iced out tomorrow.
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#91 |
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Heading out to Welch today from Glendale; light 26 ahead. Also view astern.
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I took a drive around the whole lake today and popped in and out of places.
It seems Alton Bay is pretty much ice free except the west part of it. The Gilford area looks pretty good except around the Lyons Den area there is still some. The Weirs still has some and has some pretty awful looking green ice on the beach. Meredith is still very dark. Thought it would be gone by now but it's not. Center Harbor still has dark ice as well as different spots throughout Moultonborough and Melvin. 20 mile bay still has a lot of dark ice and 19 has a lot but not as much as 20. Wolfeboro Bay still has a bit but is breaking up. I have my guess in for Thursday morning I think. Wonder if I'll hit it! Seems a little further away to me. But what will be will be. Nice drive today however. I took some pics but my card reader decided to crap out on me when I got home. Lucy Goose |
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#93 |
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Well???? The suspense is killing me! After such a warm day on Thursday, is there still ice out there?
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#94 |
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I was dropping my boat at the house in Moultonborough and Meredith and Center Horbor was clear but Moultonborough bay by Balmoral still had a bunch of ice. Also Lees mills had a lot of ice. I know they don't affect ICE OUT but just my .02 worth.
David |
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#95 |
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I herd through the grapevine that ice out was declared yesterday Wednesday the 22ent @ 2:00 pm. is it out?
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#96 |
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The ice-out posted above says Wednesday the 22nd but Wednesday was the 21st. Can somebody tell me where I can find official ice-out day and time?
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#97 |
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I haven't found any official announcement that ice-out has been declared yet.
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#98 | |
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I can't confirm it though. I consider ice out to be the first day I can get to my camp on Sleeper which was Tuesday. The rest is just details. Ha Ha |
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#99 |
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....all waiting for ice out to be declared. just had a plane fly low over my house in Alton Bay....Come on, Dave E.......declare it and let the fun begin!
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#100 |
Moderator
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Traffic is through the roof this morning as you can tell by the slower loading times. I've never seen the server loads so high. Although there are lots of visitors on the forum 3 out of 4 hits today are going to the WeirsCAM.
Ice-Out week has always been the busiest week of the year on this site. |
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