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#1 |
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With all the snow this year have there been any projections as to what the lake levels will be?
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#2 |
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Based on what happened last summer/fall, I hope they are a little more conservative in what they release. My boat slip had less than a foot of water last September when it's normally 2 and half feet plus.
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#3 |
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My unscientific opinion is that snow melts slowly and will be absorbed into the dry watershed, as opposed to rain which runs off faster and fills the lake. This is good as it allows more even control of lake level at the Lakeport dam.
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#4 |
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Ah lake level discussions......
As stated already, the snow pack will slowly melt and while some of it will make it to the lake, the watershed itself is thirsty after last year. So exactly what the will make it to the lake isn't easy to tell. With that said, Dam operations are pretty good keep the rise of the lake under control from the spring run off... Unless it is combined with heavy rain fall, it would anticipate a slow controlled rise to full lake like usual.... With that said, how will the lake fair this year as the summer progresses. Well each year is unique.... All you can do is wait and watch. They can only fill the lake up so much, and then a constant release must be maintained... As long as normal rainfall happens through out the summer the lake will predictably go down on its normal pattern.... Not enough rain and guess what, the lake will go low again..... Over the years I have realized, people (including myself) spend far to much time worrying about lake level and how the dam operations could be done differently.... but the truth is, the one in control is mother nature.... Lake level depends on consistent precipitation, at consistent intervals..... Unfortunately we don't always get that consistent schedule.....
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#5 |
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So true: it is all about the long term and natural cycles. This year: meaningless; 20 years, worth evaluating.
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#6 | |
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Quote:
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#7 |
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Most of the snow this season, till this last storm, has been light and fluffy. The kind that is hard make snowballs from. Lots of snow depth doesn't mean lots of water. Currently, there is about 2.5" of water stored in the snowpack in Laconia. Today's value is on a .
In my opinion, we don't have enough snowpack, so far, to bring up the lake significantly. But, March and even April can bring big heavy wet snowstorms that would add to the snowpack and then to the lake level. Or, multi-inch rainstorms. As long as the ground is frozen, much of the water will runoff from the watershed, rather than be absorbed. So, the April 15'th lake level is anyone's guess at this point, but as of today, the lake level isn't coming up much from the snow on the ground. The law averages says something will happen to make things normal again, but its a law that isn't always enforced.
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#8 |
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As of today, the lake level is about 3" from Full Pool.
The dam is at minimum output of 250 CFS. Not much additional rain predicted this week but about an inch predicted the following week. The state is mostly in moderate to severe drought conditions. |
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#9 |
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All the snow and rain had me thinking we were ok again.
Every time I needed to do something outdoors the weather was prohibitive. Now it turns out we didn't even get un-droughted!
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#10 |
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When I look at https://www.des.nh.gov/sites/g/files...-graph2026.PDF I see we're 3" from full, currently above average, and 2026 precip is a little below average.
It looks perfectly fine. |
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#11 |
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Here is Bizer's graph chart from April 2 before the recent rains...Does not look like we are too far off the mark for this time of year. Hopefully we do get more precipitation and runoff from surrounding areas to get us above full lake pretty soon...
Dan
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#12 |
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I wish I could see overlays showing the rainfall, snow accumulation and/or watershed saturation. I have long believed that we should be looking for full pool sometime in July, where it appears DES sees full pool in May and wants to drop the level right away. "Oh NO! It might rain." I talked to the state dam director some years ago and mentioned that when people pay $100K for a boat, they want to use it through Columbus Day. His remark was "We never thought of that. We always thought all boating ended on Labor Day." Things in the fall have improved since then, but it still appears DES is overly concerned about going to an inch or two over full pool. It's a tricky balance. If the watershed is saturated, over pool may not be desirable, but when there is a fall drought (2025) there isn't much runoff and we can take a little more water IMHO.
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#13 |
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This is the DES current and averaged Winnipesaukee water levels. As of this morning we are 2" below Full Pool, about 5 weeks ahead of average (in yellow), a nice recovery from the Fall levels.
I previously mentioned the drought level of the state as an interesting observation but drought is a tricky indicator. It is not just rainfall. It includes lots of measurements like groundwater and LOTS of other factors. And, as with most complex calculations, it loses something in clarity as to exactly what it means. It means that all the things going into it came out as a value that has been labeled as a level on a drought scale. What that means as a practical matter is less clear. If we are in moderate drought, is that somewhat "normal" for this time of year? Are there any problems associated with that measurement? It's hard to tell. If we get a good amount of Spring rain, will we be out of drought conditions? Maybe, since rain is only part of the calculation. An expert could probably wax on for hours about the technical meaning but perhaps not give a clear practical meaning to a drought measurement. It seems to me that the state has been in some level of drought for many years, when I spot check occasionally. Yet, my sense of wellness doesn't sync with that. Plants are growing, animals are thriving, ... If we are in mild to moderate drought most of the time yet there is no clear impacts of that label, is it a helpful label? "Drought" is a scary label but maybe not as helpful as it could be to the average person. |
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#14 | |
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#15 | |
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#16 | |
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But I don’t live on Winni…and every lake is different. Our lake is managed to prevent these conditions. In 25+ years never had a season we couldn’t launch/retrieve our boats. We will see what this season brings. A wet spring (like last year) could change everything. |
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#17 |
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Obviously, it is hard tyo please everybody. We see posts from folks who want low water to protect their docks and folks whose boats draw more water and those who want to have deep water through Halloween. The key, to me, is full pool into July, instead of dropping the level in June. Maybe we need to pay DES folks more so they can afford Winnipesaukee boating like all us rich folk?
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#18 |
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This past weekend and according to my dock, the lake was at full pool. With the rain we got today and the rest of this week things are shaping up nicely!
Dan
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#19 |
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Just drove back from MA. Merrimack River is full
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#20 |
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Yes, it spiked 4 - 7 feet, depending where it is measured, right after the rainfall.
Winnisquam and Silver Lake are also over their "normal high" levels. This is what makes dumping water from Winnipesaukee problematic AFTER a big rainfall. |
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#21 | |
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#22 |
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"Drought conditions in New Hampshire ... http://www.weather.gov/media/gyx/DGT...X_05142026.pdf .... will continue even after recent beneficial rains."
So, why is this? With all this recent rain it sure seems like the drought should be ovuh!
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#23 |
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Has there been a management change in recent years controlling this?
Since 1961, I don't remember, ever, this problem. Once in, late 90's, early 2000? And three times in a row now?
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#24 | |
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The schedule needs to adapt to a modern format; and deal with changes in the surrounding land usage that increases the run-off into the lakes. |
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#25 | |
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This year we just got a multiday storm of over 3 inches of rain. We KNEW it was coming and that the lake was OVERfilled already but nothing was done, PROACTIVELY, to dump some of the water while downstream water levels were low. I can remember 2 years in the early 2000s that had several major storms in a row that pushed the Merrimack up almost 20 feet and over its banks in Hudson. My back yard along the river was flooded. The outlet from my house footing drains near the river were underwater and I started to get some water in my basement because they couldn't drain around the house. The lake was very high. I'm not sure much could have been done about that. Sometimes Mother Nature is tough to live with. |
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#26 |
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I get a kick out of lake level discussions. We are either beating up the guys who control the dam because the water is too high or too low.
If the open the dam in anticipation of a big storm event and it doesn't happen seems to be happening quite often over the past several years) we yell "mismanagement" because there isn't enough water in the lake. If they keep the dam closed because a storm is supposed to miss us and it doesn't we yell mismanagement because there is too much water in the lake. Talk about a thankless job! |
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#27 | |
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#28 | |
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Soil after a drought have trouble absorbing water and tend to more run-off. The recent events tend to be more like flash floods rather than slow steady events. |
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#29 |
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Don’t think they will and with the weather looking like trash will help keeping the boat traffic lite
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#30 | |
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#31 |
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I find it interesting going back and reading some of the early posts and see how wrong some of the experts were. For those of us who have been around the lake for 50 plus years will remember that PSNH used to control the dams. There were very few problems then. The problems came when the state took over the dams.
And speaking of erosion problems with the lake level. Think of how the native Americans fell when the settlers built the lakeport dam and raised the lake level up 5-7 ft. No more fishing weirs and Long Island was probably not an island. |
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#32 | |
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#33 |
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A neighbor of mine pointed out that the increased construction and building is causing a decrease in natural vegetation, which absorbs lots of rain, and thus increasing run-off.
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#34 | |
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So, look at it all now. Blame it all on Eisenhower and his dream of an interstate highway system, with at least one mile out of five suitable for use as a runway in time of war. Fortunately, island residents are seasonal, so the runoff probably isn't as severe as it is where shorefront condos significantly reduce the ability of the land to absorb precipitation. C'est la vie. |
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#35 |
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Seasonality of the occupants doesn't change the hardscape and simplified root system of the vegetation.
I alluded to this in my post on 5-17 at 9:59pm. Also, the interstate has been around for decades; but in the late 80s I could travel from Belmont to Holderness on a weekend and hardly see any traffic. I think it is our (NH) promoting recreation rather than industry and agriculture that made us a Bedroom State. |
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#36 |
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"Lake Winnipesaukee does not have a single source; it is a naturally glacially formed body of water primarily fed by ancient underground springs and dozens of relatively small streams and tributaries.
Primary Inflows: Eighty-three relatively small streams and rivers drain into the lake's massive 215,133-acre watershed. Major inflows include the Gunstock, Merrymeeting, Melvin, and Red Hill Rivers." I have heard that the primary water input to the lake is the underground springs. While there has certainly been a lot of development along the shoreline and immediately nearby, the watershed extends out for miles and development away from the lake is, relatively, much less. The streams that feed the lake are probably still delivering the same amounts of water although that overall amount is probably impossible to know. Shoreline runoff has definitely increased. What it's overall volume contribution to lake level is, is speculation. I think the dam could be managed smarter. Given the fickleness of mother nature, it's never going to be a perfect process but the extremes could be smoothed out. First principle, you can't make it rain so we should retain more water, longer, SHORT of bad shoreline erosion levels, to anticipate the possibility of a couple of months of dry weather. Second principle, we need to anticipate major storms and drawdown enough ahead of the the storm so it doesn't rise the lake to exceed levels that cause shoreline erosion. Dam response AFTER the storm is complicated by downstream conditions. |
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#37 |
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The streams would either be consistent (underground) or part of the surface run-off that is affected by development - not just along the shoreline.
Changing acreage from deep rooted pasture grass to more hardscape with development and shallow rooted turfgrass also increases the run-off to those streams and into the lake. |
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#38 |
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The lake level jumping, is a direct reflection of the dam operators doing just what people have been fussing for.
The lake was full, the dam was held at the minimum output.... A down pour happened, run off increased, and they couldn't open the dam fast enough, with out causing issues down stream.... I saw this coming, they can't hold the lake at full pool, with out risking high water.....
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#39 | |
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#40 |
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Define control?
Is someone right there ready to make adjustments? No is the out flow and lake level being monitored and data available? Yes Typically they will not adjust it more then once or twice a week. In extreme conditions they will review and adjust daily, but that is rare.....
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#41 |
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Many years ago, because of the trouble boaters have navigating the Weirs Channel during times when the dam is at a high discharge rate, I spoke to the people in charge in Concord.
I suggested turning up the flow from 10 PM until 8 AM when there was minimal boat traffic and slowing the discharge rate down during the day. The answer I got was "we can't, we don't work nights". |
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#42 | |
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#43 |
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I found the problem! This isn't helping the Winnipesaukee lake level go down.
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#44 |
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#45 | |
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In this instance, the lake peaked due to the rainstorm at about 8" over full on May 18 and has now dropped about 1 1/2 inches. It will take about another 5 days at the current rate of 1500 CFS to get down to a "manageable" 2" over full pool. We are due another 1/2 of rain on Sun/Mon. |
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#46 | ||
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Since I've been observing the lake my entire (long) lifetime, I see that the immense sizes of today's boats has, over time, stressed management of the lake level. IMHO, spring's boating erosion of the shoreline should take precedence over oversized boat inconvenience. The muddied shoreline I've been watching extending itself outwards for 70 years at this same location is testimony; not to mention, algae growth that didn't exist back then. Micro-plants grew like green peach fuzz on our moored boats' bottoms, but nothing like the algae masses we see while peering off our dock on Winter Harbor.
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#47 |
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Some people seem to think that the lake level can be managed week to week. It could if input could be managed the same way. The forecasters are extremely inaccurate. How many times has rain been predicted and we get none. Or the reverse. Again I ask, where would the lake level be today if the operators had dropped the level like some posters had asked? Would those same people be complaining that the dam was mismanaged because too much water was released?
And, by the way, if you go to the URL provided by JeffK you will see that the state is, in fact, in drought condition from the southern end of the lake south. |
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#48 | |
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I agree it is damn difficult to forecast the weather, and that hindsight is 20/20, and that Monday morning quarterbacking is easy. But when someone says the low level of early release makes us better off today, that is also Monday morning quarterbacking...except it is ignoring the possibility of fast early release followed by slow later release. Perhaps more importantly, you imply that more water is better. We don't really know that. The high early water levels combined with wind and boat wakes definitely increase erosion, and that increases milfoil, cyanobacteria, and other ills. We don't see this stuff immediately the way we see boat problems, but it may be much more important to us over time |
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#49 | |
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Your original statement was "All of New England is still in a drought situation". That is only true if having some drought anywhere in a state means ALL the state is in in drought. In fact, most states are significantly, by area, NOT in drought or just abnormally dry. NH is about 3/4 drought free. Also, the conditions across New England have been improving over the last few months. |
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#50 |
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I think whoever controls Winnipesaukee's lake level needs a "Weather Rock".
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#51 |
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I guess some people just need something to complain about & a target for their complaints!
With the lake closing in on, or by now surpassing 6 inches below full pool, when do the complaints that the dam bureau doesn’t know what it is doing start? |
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#52 |
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It doesn't get much better.
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#53 |
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#54 |
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#55 |
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How is the high lake level affecting boat traffic under the Wolfeboro bridge to Back Bay? Can any boats get under without scraping the underside of the bridge?
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#56 |
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besides waukewan and kanasatka what other lakes and ponds drain into winnipesaukee?
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#57 |
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#58 |
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#59 |
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#60 |
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#61 |
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NO WAKE ORDER – SILVER LAKE IN BELMONT
BELMONT, N.H. – Pursuant to NH RSA 270:132, the New Hampshire State Police - Marine Patrol has instituted a No Wake order on Silver Lake in Belmont. This order will remain in effect until the lake level drops below 467.0 feet above sea level. The gauge at the Department of Environmental Services, Silver Lake Station will be used to make this determination. The Marine Patrol urges all boaters throughout the state to be aware of their wakes and use caution when operating in channels or close to shore |
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#62 |
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And because of that, the Lakeport dam has scaled back the outflow to prevent making the downstream situation worse. Winnipesaukee is now about 6" over full and will drain more slowly until the downstream water recedes. The options are limited at this point.
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#63 |
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One picture is from September 2025. The other is from today. I have a new aluminum dock ready to go but it should be a lot easier when the lake level drops.
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#64 |
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After the storm. Everything would have been fine if the water was lower.
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#65 |
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Sorry about your dock. That wind was just awful. My iris got blown over, my little tomatoes are leaning, a big box of toys on the beach got blown over-never happened before. Thank goodness no major issues, we were lucky.
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#66 |
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Wow Tilton, Thats awful! Sorry about your damage! Saw a couple places here on Welch that have similar damage but not nearly as bad as yours!
Hopefully after this weekend things will settle down a bit… Dan
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It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!
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#67 |
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Laconia and Sanbornton received 3.20-inches rain on Saturday, May 30 according to WMUR rainfall by NH towns. This is big rain.
Rains Gods were targeting Silver Lake in Tilton which is not a lake but is a large wide area in the Winnipesaukee River, the dammed-up outflow from Lake Winnipesaukee that flows down between the dam in Laconia and the dam in Franklin, NH and into the Merrimack River.
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#68 |
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We have been getting quite a few calls and emails this week and there has been surge of discussion about lake levels and the possibility of a no-wake order, so I wanted to share a few facts for context.
First, it's important to note that the Lake Winnipesaukee Alliance does not manage lake levels. Water level management is overseen by the NHDES Dam Bureau, which operates the Lakeport Dam and balances conditions on Winnipesaukee with downstream impacts throughout the Winnipesaukee River system. For more info for those factors visit: https://www.winnipesaukee.org/the-issues/lake-level/ As of June 1, Lake Winnipesaukee was approximately about 6.6 inches above the full lake level of 504.32 feet. While that is certainly elevated, it remains below levels reached during other notable high-water years. One common misconception is that there is a specific lake-level threshold that automatically triggers a no-wake order. To my knowledge, no such threshold exists. In 2024, New Hampshire passed HB 1360, which gives the Commissioner of the Department of Safety authority to establish temporary no-wake zones during emergencies caused by weather or environmental conditions. The law does not identify a specific lake elevation that automatically triggers those restrictions. For historical context, a lakewide no-wake restriction was issued on Winnipesaukee in July 1998 when the lake reached approximately 505.53 feet. In May 2006, a lakewide restriction was not implemented when the lake reached approximately 505.45 feet. Likewise, during the flooding events of 2023, state officials encouraged boaters to operate at headway speed and minimize wakes, but a formal lakewide no-wake order was not issued. Lake level management is also more complex than simply opening the dam further. NHDES must balance conditions on Winnipesaukee with downstream flooding concerns, hydropower obligations, fisheries, Silver Lake water levels, wastewater treatment requirements, loon nesting habitat, lake trout spawning habitat, and other operational constraints. Regardless of whether a formal no-wake order is in place, high water does increase the potential for shoreline erosion. That's why it's especially important for boaters to be mindful of their wake near shorelines, docks, wetlands, and other vulnerable areas. For anyone interested in a deeper dive into the recent conditions and the history of lake level management, we recently wrote an article for the Laconia Daily Sun that summarizes much of this information: https://www.laconiadailysun.com/boat...770e76186.html
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The Lake Winnipesaukee Alliance (LWA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to protecting the water quality and natural resources of Lake Winnipesaukee and its watershed. Through monitoring, education, stewardship, and science guided approaches for lake management, LWA works to ensure Winnipesaukee’s scenic beauty, wildlife habitat, water quality and recreational potential continues to provide enjoyment long into the future. http://www.winnipesaukee.org/ |
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#69 |
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A good review of many of the issues surrounding the water level of Lake Winnipesaukee.
The problem still is that the lake level is being managed REACTIVELY and once a high water level exists, it usually exists everywhere, and all the conditions that prevent the Winnipesaukee water level from being lowered are in play. This is not too surprising since it is being managed by a government agency and government usually is reactive instead of proactive. Water level targets are NOT being planned based on the possibility that rainfall may NOT occur as normal. If it doesn't show up, we can't manufacture water. We are at a dead end, as happened last year. Drawdown is NOT being down in anticipation of significant rainfall events. We are in the current situation because we had a 3+" rainstorm event and have not been able to recover from that because we keep getting more rain. If we had dumped water a week before that storm, say 3" or so, when downstream was not already full, we would be only a few inches over full which is not as big a problem. Predicting rainfall is tricky. Instead of 3"s falling, maybe only 1" could have come down. If the level had been dropped ahead of the storm, then the lake might now be slightly below full. That wouldn't have been a problem. Then, hang on to that water level unless rain actually happens, NOT lower the level according to a 40 year average that is, on a year to year basis, NOT average very often. We need more PROACTIVE management to keep the lake from getting overfull and from going well below minimal levels. |
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#70 |
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I'd be curious to know about insurance claims during this discharge mismanagement. Third year in a row. I bet those companies are not happy.
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#71 |
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Are the level fluctuations on Winnipesaukee lower than fluctuations on Sebago or Champlain?
What about Newfound or Sunapee? |
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#72 |
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Bizer map says the bridge clearance is 4.2 ft at full lake level. Since we are about 6 " above that the clearance is only going to be 3.6ft or about 43". I don't think many boats can get under the bridge.
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#73 | |
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Quote:
Well, if you do get under there then you'll likely have a good and easy selection of all the chewed bubble gum that's been applied there over the years.... |
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#74 |
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One thing people forget when they talk about keeping the lake level high is that the outfall from Winni feeds lakes and rivers downstream. These have residents who want workable waters levels so they can recreate. Right now it might not make much of a difference but as we move forward in the “season” holding water in Winnipesaukee means lower water down stream.
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