Official 2010 Ice-Out Thread

[JMR]

I went from Alton to Meredith today. At noon there was open water between the Rattlesnake Landing and Sleeper Island with lots of cracks in the remaining ice.

No ice in Smith Cove.

Ice cracking up and moving away from shore at Ames Farm.


Ice moviing away from shore at the Weirs.

Meredith Bay was about 1/4th open when I got there at 130pm. By the time I left at 3-4 PM it was at least 1/2 open with a soft breeze blowing out.

With some wind the lake will be open for business soon. Easter seems likely.

Like the rest of you I can't wait

[Just Sold]

JMR - we were both in Medredith at the same tiime today. I got there around 2 at the docks. There were a lot of people enjoying the day there.

I went on to Center Harbor and Lee's Mill. Center Harbor was open a good ways out and Lee's Mill was very open as far as I could see. I will post some photos later.

BTW the new launch ramp at Lee's is looking great with the cement all in place. It is still behind the coffer dam but maybe they wil finish the work soon for use.

[sum-r breeze]

Has Fly Guy been up and snapping any pictures of the lake today with the 70 degree temps? I saw my first boat ride by on a trailer today! You could just see the the giddy look on that guy's face. What a fantastic day, can't wait to unwrap The Breeze break out the buffer.

Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back
The Breeze

[Gatto Nero]

There are no signs of ice anywhere from my vantage point on Black Cat Island, either towards Center Harbor, the Beaver Islands, 3 Mile, or as far down the Broads as I can see.

[BroadHopper]

is free of ice.

[Slickcraft]

While there is open water a ways north of the bandstand in Alton Bay, there is ice after that around Sandy Point and up the bay. The view from the scenic overlook was mostly contiguous ice and the view from Ames Farm shows mostly pack ice toward Rattlesnake and south.

There is still ice between Belknap Point and Locke’s.

I would say that someone like 308 who has picked the 28th is still in the running.

[BlackCatIslander]

I have been checking the various live cams over the last week to watch the ice disappear. It is surprising to watch the action today on Snake Eyes as the ice has moved away from the shore and is starting to break up. It looks as though two or three days should do it.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Gatto Nero

There are no signs of ice anywhere from my vantage point on Black Cat Island, either towards Center Harbor, the Beaver Islands, 3 Mile, or as far down the Broads as I can see.

I second that. No ice is visible from the weather station. Winds have increased since 2 pm and are now averaging 23 mph from the southeast, along the length of the lake. If there were any major ice down-lake, it would have drifted much closer by now. But there has been none in the waves -- not even a scrap of ice.

Anything that does exist between here and there will get tossed about in the waves, which are approaching 12-18 inches high at this location. This also tells me they've had a decent stretch of open lake on which to build. Waves don't build as easily in ice-laden water.

The water temperature at this station has now reached 40 at a depth of 10 feet, and 48 at a depth of 2 feet.

The water level is an inch below full.

A boat went by this morning, on a slow southeast course.

[Winni-Retired]

I am getting excited reading the ice - out information.

I have, Thursday 25-March at 11.31 AM, the date and time of my oldest childs birth.

Would it not be great to have ice-out on her birthday ?

[Sully]

I'm liking your chances, Winni - Retired. History will be made this week!

[Pepper]

Been sitting here watching the various cams, and DRH's updates over the past few hours, and cannot believe the rapid changes! The ice is moving FAST all over the lake, and the condition of the remaining ice is seriously fragile. What's left cannot possibly survive much longer, between the temps and the wind. Won't be long at all!

[bab1234]

Still large chucks of ice, BUT the broads are mostly open. This area at 7:00 am was mostly covered GOING FAST, few more days it should all be gone. Let the summer games begin.

[Merrymeeting]

The water temp will moderate things, but if it doesn't go in the next few days, things will slow down by Tuesday. Forecast shows very cold nights this week.

[corollaman]

Paugus Bay is starting to open up.

[JMR]

here is a picture from the Rattlesnake landing looking towards Sleeper Island. a little hard to see the open water away from the dock.

[Island Girl]

We traveled north on RT 11 from Alton Bay to the Laconia By-pass between 11:30 and 1:00 PM. Basically everything was iced in, with some little breaks and rivers. By the time we got back to MA just after 4:30, the world had changed. DRH posted a few pictures showing that the lake was on the move and the ice bergs were flowing and breaking up. The broads, as reported by DBA on Rattlesnake, was 70% free. Snake Eyes showed a tiny iceberg, but mostly open water where it was all ice this morning. Any rain and wind ought to finish the job!

I was going to post a pic or two, but it is irrelevant now... the world changed from the time I took them until the time I got back to a computer!! I love mother nature.

IG

[Dock Mooch]

Hi folks,

I am on Rattlesnake and check this thread and rattlesnakcam daily.

My wife and I drove past Ames Farm this morning on our way to the Maine Boatbuilder Show in Portland and the ice was still in out to Rattlesnake, though it was looking very punky.

Happy to say that on the way back, around 5 PM.....it was open water between Ames Farm and Rattlesnake.

We'll be launching one of our boats next Monday most likely.

Cheers
Jeff

[Blue Thunder]

Welcome to the Forum DM. Over five years of lurking and you finally made your first post. Nice to have you with us.

BT

[BlackCatIslander]

From a quick look at the various cams, I wonder if we already have ice out. Can anyone find some ice?

[Merrymeeting]

The main Winnipesaukee cam shows there are still many large bergs. Similar on Wolfeboro cams, Broadview, Alton (WinnipesaukeeCams), etc.

But, they are all isolated and moving so they will break up and melt soon. It won't be long now...

[Islander2]

This was the entrance to Hole in the Wall on Saturday...

[Islander2]

Also Saturday, Melvin Village was wide open... but still snow on the mountains.

[Squam Friend]

Big Squam is open all the way to Sandwich Bay, which is still iced in, and Little Squam has big sheets and chunks floating around... one more big windy day and it could be all gone!

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by BlackCatIslander

From a quick look at the various cams, I wonder if we already have ice out. Can anyone find some ice?

I found a little bit about an hour ago. The 1st photo is looking north up Alton Bay from Sandy Point. The 2nd is looking out from the scenic overlook near MT Major parking lot. While I am no expert, it sort of looks like real ice to me. I would assume the same holds true for the 2+ miles of upper bay between where the two photos were taken.

[LIforrelaxin]

It is getting there.... still on course to be one of the earliest Ice Outs ever.... we just need to give mother nature some more time, and hope for some wind to speed things up just a pinch....

[StephenB]

I find this early ice out downright scary.

[Long Pine]

Still some ice in the Varney Islands/ Barndoor area but it is getting dark. Attached pic was taken 3/22 at 11:45am. Looking west toward Barndoor, Clay Point, and Gunstock.

[Grant]

Originally Posted by Islander2

Also Saturday, Melvin Village was wide open... but still snow on the mountains.

Wow -- I was walking there on Feb 21...

[robmac]

Boats already floating in the lake,now hope to be able to take a nice easy cruise next week.

[Dock Mooch]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Welcome to the Forum DM. Over five years of lurking and you finally made your first post. Nice to have you with us.

BT

I guess it took a March ice-out to open me up ;-)

Cheers
Jeff

[meredith weekender]

Any word on Meredith Bay???????

[jeffk]

Ice went out in front of Suissevale on Saturday (20th). I drove around and found Moultonborough Bay by Melvin Village wide open, 20 Mile bay was open except for a thin sheet by the shore (I'm sure gone by now). Center Harbor is open. The only ice I found was off States Landing Road by Balmoral which was still pretty socked in. I went back today (Mon) and it was almost clear.

[BobbyA]

Don`t tell Al Gore!!!!

[StephenB]

Originally Posted by BobbyA

Don`t tell Al Gore!!!!

I looked at the list of historical ice out dates, http://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout but I can't really see a strong trend towards earlier ice outs in the recent past.

I think one of the main reasons this ice out is coming along so fast is that the lake ice was fairly clear and black most of the winter. While "white" means snow and that holds in heat, white ice also reflects more sun as the latter gets stronger and higher in February. This year, there was an awful lot of bare, dark ice exposed to the sun.

Thoughts?

[Lakegeezer]

This record year will be just another data point in the history books. Next year could be very different. The 10 year trends are more interesting from a Gore perspective. Our fair cold weather this winter pushed the nasty storms south. Indeed, the combo of fast freezing in December which caused black/clear ice and no snow meant a fast thaw. If the ice had frozen white, it could have been a very different story.

How will ice-out be declared if the weather is too bad to fly when the event occurs? The ice is moving around a lot now and much that was on the camera yesterday is gone. If we're going to set a record, it should be an accurate one.

[secondcurve]

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

This record year will be just another data point in the history books. Next year could be very different. The 10 year trends are more interesting from a Gore perspective. Our fair cold weather this winter pushed the nasty storms south. Indeed, the combo of fast freezing in December which caused black/clear ice and no snow meant a fast thaw. If the ice had frozen white, it could have been a very different story.

How will ice-out be declared if the weather is too bad to fly when the event occurs? The ice is moving around a lot now and much that was on the camera yesterday is gone. If we're going to set a record, it should be an accurate one.

I think our ability to get an accurate ice out date in this day and age is a lot better than it was say a 100-years ago, so I wouldn't worry about nasty weather impeding the process!

[Steveo]

The ice out has to be declared before Sunday to be a new record. With the winds coming in tomorrow I don't think it will be a problem. From the looks of it Alton Bay is the only holdout.

[JB Long Island]

With all this wind and rain gotta be close !

[ishoot308]

None of the web cams show any ice left. Just yesterday the Broadview and Varney Point cam still showed some ice, today it is completely gone. The only place I can think of where there still may be a little if any ice left would be in Alton Bay... I'll be curious to see what the "ice out" Silver Sands camera shows when today's pic is put up.

Dan

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Looks like everything is floating down to Alton Bay.

DRH has been pretty wonderful taking so many pictures for us and posting them on EchoCam. It is amazing how much it changes in just hours! Thanks DRH.

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Rattlesnake Gal

Looks like everything is floating down to Alton Bay.

DRH has been pretty wonderful taking so many pictures for us and posting them on EchoCam. It is amazing how much it changes in just hours! Thanks DRH.

Thanks for the nice words, RG.

As you can see in the photo below, taken about 1/2 hour ago, quite a bit of ice blew across the lake from the Wolfeboro direction overnight and it's locked in against our shoreline this morning. This ice is only about one inch thick and the floating sections crumble and pile up on each other when they collide. All the white you see in the picture below represents chipped ice resulting from these collisions. This ice "soup" stretches from a bit to the southeast of Rum Point all the way up to Smith's Point.

It's 38 degrees here this morning with rain, and this remaining ice is melting. The wind is forecast to shift from the NE over to the NW and W tomorrow, so any remaining ice here at that time will probably be blown down toward Alton Bay.

[robmac]

Thanks DRH for the pics and updates,shouldn't be long now.

[Kings Bluff]

The mouth of Alton Bay still has some ice but it is going quick. See www.winnipesaukeecam.com.

[Squam Friend]

The ice is all piled up at one end of Little Squam and is almost completely gone from the other end of Big Squam down in Sandwich... check out the ice by the covered bridge on the little squam webcam

it's a little wet from the rain pummeling the window in front of the camera...

[HUH]

And its all water..

[corollaman]

Got up this morning. looked out the window at Paugus Bay, and it was all open. Just ice piled along the shoreline. I think ice-out on the big lake will be this weekend. Lily Pond was out when I went by yesterday, and winnisquam was all open when I went by there on Sunday. Opechee was all opened up last week except for over by the prison.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Winnisquam has been open since Sunday.

Thanks for the web cam link Squam Friend.

[Island Girl]

I thought it would be ice-out today... however there are still some bergs in Alton Bay. I could be right, though. The Mount is a big heavy boat. I bet she could just push those ice crystals aside and get to her port with nary a scratch!



It is time to jetski!!!

[Merrymeeting]

Better be before Friday! 14 degrees overnight!!!

Should we be talking about ice-in again?

[Dock Mooch]

Our 17' bowrider is going in this week! Last year I was in before official ice-out and even got a chance to cruise the ice flow in front of Rattlesnake.

Looks like I missed the ice this year but very excited to be floating in March!

Cheers
Jeff

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by StephenB

I find this early ice out downright scary.

An asteroid coming right at the earth is scary. Given the statistics, driving should be the scariest thing we all do, but somehow we're not scared when we drive.

As for early iceout, it's actually fascinating when you study the science behind it all. Then you see that the ice froze right on average, got thick enough for human activity earlier than average, got thick enough to support widespread truck usage for a time, and yet still melted extremely early.

The science behind it all will tell you there is a lot more to ice-in and ice-out than temperatures. There are many factors. Their timing and order plays a huge role. That's what makes the iceout guessing contest such a huge attraction.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Better be before Friday! 14 degrees overnight!!!

Should we be talking about ice-in again?

More than likely not. One of the greatest factors in getting the lake to freeze is the longest nights of the year. Also, sun angle in December and early January is as low as it gets. This time of year, the days are longer than the nights, and the sun angle is now the same as it is in late summer/early fall. The water temp has started to warm up, also. That will prevent ice formation unless we get a stretch of cold weather long enough to chill it back to freezing in a large enough area.

If there is still a lot of ice in any given area when the cold weather hits later this week, those areas may defy spring for a bit longer. But any new skims of ice that form this time of year will have a hard time surviving when the sun comes up early, rises high, and sets late.

[Merrymeeting]

As always Canis, I appreciate and enjoy very much your weather analysis.

But in this case I was kidding...

[WIS]

A picture from the Rattlesnake boat launch today showing the ice all the way out to Sleepers:



Dock damage at Minge Cove:



It won't be long now!

[StephenB]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

The science behind it all will tell you there is a lot more to ice-in and ice-out than temperatures. There are many factors. Their timing and order plays a huge role. That's what makes the iceout guessing contest such a huge attraction.

What I realized this year is snow cover or lack thereof as well as ice color, especially in the months of Feb and March, have a lot more to do with ice out than overall winter temperatures, though warm March temps helped.

[Bear Island South]

Originally Posted by Dock Mooch

Our 17' bowrider is going in this week! Last year I was in before official ice-out and even got a chance to cruise the ice flow in front of Rattlesnake.

Looks like I missed the ice this year but very excited to be floating in March!

Cheers
Jeff

us too
we are heading up on Thursday to put the dock in, last year the dock went in on April 8, the next day we got iced in when a huge ice flow drifted in

[Merrymeeting]

Paugus Bay and Alton were the last hold-outs. Looks like they are clear now. Should be today...

If anyone is interested in some videos of the ice-out progress on Merrymeeting, here you go www.mmlake.org

[Steveo]

Now that Alton Bay finally succumbed to the winds, it looks like if Dave can get the plane up in these strong winds then we will have a record ice-out today, beating the 1921 record by 4 days...unbelievable!!!!

Worse case he gets it up tomorrow

[Sman]

Alton may be clear, but we need DRH to finish his pancakes and coffee and take the much appreciated daily Echo Shores photo, that area needs some clearing too

Thanks DRH for those pictures, it looked clear sat/sun only to blow back in at the beginning of the week - great link

[Kings Bluff]

The ice is heading out (into) Alton Bay. Given how high the water is, it's time to pray for the docks. See www.winnipesaukeecam.com

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Sman

Alton may be clear, but we need DRH to finish his pancakes and coffee and take the much appreciated daily Echo Shores photo, that area needs some clearing too

Thanks DRH for those pictures, it looked clear sat/sun only to blow back in at the beginning of the week - great link

No pancakes - just dry cereal!

All the ice is gone this morning at Echo Shores.

[Sman]

Wow DRH you are on it, thanks again!

For all those pictures someone needs to cook you a stack of pancakes! Looks like Echo Shores is done with ice for the year

Now if we can get rid of the rain/wind/cold temps, one thing at a time I guess

[MAXUM]

Hard to believe that we'll see ice out in March. May have to splash the boat this weekend, just not sure what to do since I can't fish yet. Oh well maybe I'll just have to hit the usual hot spots and do some pre season surveying with the fish finder.

Don't see how ice out isn't called today!

[Pricestavern]

Looking at the webcams this morning, I can only see some ice slush in Alton Bay - every other cam is ice free. Who actually calls "Ice Out"? Some one should give him a nudge...

[Slickcraft]

There is still some ice in the north end of Alton Bay as viewed this morning from the scenic overlook looking south, 1st photo. Hopefully it is not "ice nine".

Driving north from the overlook, no ice in view at: Ames Farm, Ellacoya, Belknap point and Glendale.

The Slickcraft has been lowered into the water in the covered slip at Fay's but not started yet. Will wait for less wind and a warmer day to make the trip out to Welch.

Watch out for floating debris on the lake. Several docks got damaged on Welch as in the 2nd photo taken on 22 Feb 2010. There will be a lot of junk floating around.

[Kings Bluff]

If you want to have some fun click on "Dynamic Video (Beta) under the webcam pictures at www.winnipesaukeecam.com for an short (10 frame) movie of the ice moving.

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

Who actually calls "Ice Out"? Some one should give him a nudge...

I just spoke to Emerson Aviation. Dave Emerson is the pilot who makes the Ice-Out call. They said that Ice-Out has not been called yet but Dave will be going up this afternoon for another look.

I'll post an announcement here as soon as I get the word.

[Steveo]

Originally Posted by webmaster

Dave Emerson is the pilot who makes the Ice-Out call. They said that Ice-Out has not been called yet but Dave will be going up this afternoon for another look.

I only saw one guess for today, March 24th on the ice-out guesses:


March 24, 2010 2:12 pm
THE WITCH -- Monday, 22 February 2010, at 3:31 p.m

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

There is still some ice in the north end of Alton Bay as viewed this morning from the scenic overlook looking south, 1st photo. Hopefully it is not "ice nine".

The ice in upper Alton Bay as reported this morning is now gone; a victim of this west north west wind.

At this point in past years the NW wind has pushed ice over to the entrance of Wolfeboro bay delaying official ice out a day or two. We will have to see what Dave Emerson has to report.

[Winni-Retired]

Originally Posted by Winni-Retired

I am getting excited reading the ice - out information.

I have, Thursday 25-March at 11.31 AM, the date and time of my oldest childs birth.

Would it not be great to have ice-out on her birthday ?

All I need is another 19 plus hours before ICE-OUT....

[NHBoat70]

It's official as of 2pm today.

[Island Girl]

I am not seeing any announcement on any of the news media. Where did you get that information about ice out?

[mcdude]

Joe Joyce, meteorolgist on New England Cable News, was just talking about the early ice-out and showed a nice pic from the rattlesnake cam.

[RLW]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

I am not seeing any announcement on any of the news media. Where did you get that information about ice out?

I can't find it either.

[NHBoat70]

Let's just say you got the information from someone with really good sources...

[Pineedles]

darn it, missed it again.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

As always Canis, I appreciate and enjoy very much your weather analysis.

But in this case I was kidding...

I had a feeling you were, but others who have approached me with the same comment in the past few days were actually serious! Your comment reminded me to post about it.

[trfour]

Are getting ready to unwrap their sails and hang 'em out on the warm waters of Lake Winni again!
Very Happy And Safe boating Everyone!