Official 2010 Ice-Out Thread

[BobbyA]

Don`t tell Al Gore!!!!

[StephenB]

Originally Posted by BobbyA

Don`t tell Al Gore!!!!

I looked at the list of historical ice out dates, http://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout but I can't really see a strong trend towards earlier ice outs in the recent past.

I think one of the main reasons this ice out is coming along so fast is that the lake ice was fairly clear and black most of the winter. While "white" means snow and that holds in heat, white ice also reflects more sun as the latter gets stronger and higher in February. This year, there was an awful lot of bare, dark ice exposed to the sun.

Thoughts?

[Lakegeezer]

This record year will be just another data point in the history books. Next year could be very different. The 10 year trends are more interesting from a Gore perspective. Our fair cold weather this winter pushed the nasty storms south. Indeed, the combo of fast freezing in December which caused black/clear ice and no snow meant a fast thaw. If the ice had frozen white, it could have been a very different story.

How will ice-out be declared if the weather is too bad to fly when the event occurs? The ice is moving around a lot now and much that was on the camera yesterday is gone. If we're going to set a record, it should be an accurate one.

[secondcurve]

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

This record year will be just another data point in the history books. Next year could be very different. The 10 year trends are more interesting from a Gore perspective. Our fair cold weather this winter pushed the nasty storms south. Indeed, the combo of fast freezing in December which caused black/clear ice and no snow meant a fast thaw. If the ice had frozen white, it could have been a very different story.

How will ice-out be declared if the weather is too bad to fly when the event occurs? The ice is moving around a lot now and much that was on the camera yesterday is gone. If we're going to set a record, it should be an accurate one.

I think our ability to get an accurate ice out date in this day and age is a lot better than it was say a 100-years ago, so I wouldn't worry about nasty weather impeding the process!

[Steveo]

The ice out has to be declared before Sunday to be a new record. With the winds coming in tomorrow I don't think it will be a problem. From the looks of it Alton Bay is the only holdout.

[JB Long Island]

With all this wind and rain gotta be close !

[ishoot308]

None of the web cams show any ice left. Just yesterday the Broadview and Varney Point cam still showed some ice, today it is completely gone. The only place I can think of where there still may be a little if any ice left would be in Alton Bay... I'll be curious to see what the "ice out" Silver Sands camera shows when today's pic is put up.

Dan

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Looks like everything is floating down to Alton Bay.

DRH has been pretty wonderful taking so many pictures for us and posting them on EchoCam. It is amazing how much it changes in just hours! Thanks DRH.

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Rattlesnake Gal

Looks like everything is floating down to Alton Bay.

DRH has been pretty wonderful taking so many pictures for us and posting them on EchoCam. It is amazing how much it changes in just hours! Thanks DRH.

Thanks for the nice words, RG.

As you can see in the photo below, taken about 1/2 hour ago, quite a bit of ice blew across the lake from the Wolfeboro direction overnight and it's locked in against our shoreline this morning. This ice is only about one inch thick and the floating sections crumble and pile up on each other when they collide. All the white you see in the picture below represents chipped ice resulting from these collisions. This ice "soup" stretches from a bit to the southeast of Rum Point all the way up to Smith's Point.

It's 38 degrees here this morning with rain, and this remaining ice is melting. The wind is forecast to shift from the NE over to the NW and W tomorrow, so any remaining ice here at that time will probably be blown down toward Alton Bay.

[robmac]

Thanks DRH for the pics and updates,shouldn't be long now.

[Kings Bluff]

The mouth of Alton Bay still has some ice but it is going quick. See www.winnipesaukeecam.com.

[Squam Friend]

The ice is all piled up at one end of Little Squam and is almost completely gone from the other end of Big Squam down in Sandwich... check out the ice by the covered bridge on the little squam webcam

it's a little wet from the rain pummeling the window in front of the camera...

[HUH]

And its all water..

[corollaman]

Got up this morning. looked out the window at Paugus Bay, and it was all open. Just ice piled along the shoreline. I think ice-out on the big lake will be this weekend. Lily Pond was out when I went by yesterday, and winnisquam was all open when I went by there on Sunday. Opechee was all opened up last week except for over by the prison.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Winnisquam has been open since Sunday.

Thanks for the web cam link Squam Friend.

[Island Girl]

I thought it would be ice-out today... however there are still some bergs in Alton Bay. I could be right, though. The Mount is a big heavy boat. I bet she could just push those ice crystals aside and get to her port with nary a scratch!



It is time to jetski!!!

[Merrymeeting]

Better be before Friday! 14 degrees overnight!!!

Should we be talking about ice-in again?

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Better be before Friday! 14 degrees overnight!!!

Should we be talking about ice-in again?

More than likely not. One of the greatest factors in getting the lake to freeze is the longest nights of the year. Also, sun angle in December and early January is as low as it gets. This time of year, the days are longer than the nights, and the sun angle is now the same as it is in late summer/early fall. The water temp has started to warm up, also. That will prevent ice formation unless we get a stretch of cold weather long enough to chill it back to freezing in a large enough area.

If there is still a lot of ice in any given area when the cold weather hits later this week, those areas may defy spring for a bit longer. But any new skims of ice that form this time of year will have a hard time surviving when the sun comes up early, rises high, and sets late.

[Merrymeeting]

As always Canis, I appreciate and enjoy very much your weather analysis.

But in this case I was kidding...

[WIS]

A picture from the Rattlesnake boat launch today showing the ice all the way out to Sleepers:



Dock damage at Minge Cove:



It won't be long now!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

As always Canis, I appreciate and enjoy very much your weather analysis.

But in this case I was kidding...

I had a feeling you were, but others who have approached me with the same comment in the past few days were actually serious! Your comment reminded me to post about it.